The 2021 NIT: A Breakdown

It's March! After the COVID-19 pandemic forced the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament, this year's iteration of The Big Dance feels long overdue and is certain to receive a warm welcome from basketball fans all over the country. However, there's another postseason tournament that is set to return, and that's the historic NIT. Usually set in home gyms and then Madison Square Garden for the final four of the tournament, this year's version will see 16 teams (down from the usual 32) duke it out in Frisco, Texas, for the right to win the longest-running collegiate basketball tournament. The smaller field this year means that no auto-bids were given to regular-season conference champions who lost in their conference tournament, however, there are still plenty of strong mid-majors to join the power conference teams that are always a staple in the NIT. I'll be breaking down all 16 teams, all four regions, the top four seeds in a deep dive, and giving my predictions for the tournament, so when you get sick of watching the NCAA Tournament or are missing it on a Wednesday night and want to flip on ESPN to check out some other talented teams and players, you'll be able to.

The One Seeds

One of the more recent changes to the structure is the installation of the First Four Out of the NCAA Tournament as the top four seeds in the NIT. This season is slightly different as, for one, Louisville is not participating in the NIT, however, it's also different in that teams in that First Four Out could be called upon to replace teams that need to pull out of the NCAA Tournament ahead of Tuesday. It does not appear that to be the case, and with Louisville as the number one substitute option it seems highly unlikely that more than one or two one-seeds will get pulled out of the tournament, and potentially replaced by one of the NIT's first four out (Belmont, Furman, Marshall, and UAB, in that order, though it has been somewhat unclear if they are on standby for the tournament). Here are the one-seeds and their rundowns.

Colorado State (18-6, 14-4 in the Mountain West, #63 KenPom, #81 Torvik)
With the removal of Louisville from the NIT, Colorado State is the top seed in the NIT and, other than the Cardinals, are perhaps the team that was also the most surprising (yet still probably expected) miss from the NCAA Tournament. Wins against San Diego State as well as Utah State on the road were the biggest marks in their favor in the resume, and playing the two toughest teams in the conference on the road is never easy. They also had to travel to Nevada on the last game of the regular season, which ended in a loss but means that of the fellow top five in the conference, they played five of seven games against them on the road (splitting home games with Boise State). They entered with a solid resume, and exclusively held losses to Q1 or Q2 teams entering Selection Sunday, but a Mountain West Tournament loss to Utah State seems to have served as essentially a play-in game with Utah State in the final field of 68 and Colorado State just barely missing out.

The Rams are lead by third-year coach Niko Medved, one of the hottest mid-major coaching prospects around. Medved turned Furman into one of the top teams in the Southern Conference, going from 9-21 in his first season to 23-11 and a CIT semifinalist in his fourth and final season. He also helped boost Drake from a program with three straight seasons with fewer than ten wins to a 17-17 record in his one and the only season before jumping back to the program where he spent 2007-2013 as an assistant coach. Performing similarly to his previous stops, the Rams were 12-20 in his first season but have seen consistent improvements and Medved is knocking on the door of his first NCAA Tournament as a head coach. 

Medved has CSU playing the best defense they've ever played in the Torvik Era (dating back to 2008, the advent of statistics on barttorvik.com). They sit 70th in defensive efficiency and pair that with an EFG% of 54.9%, which is good for 25th in the country and is a stat that, under Medved, they've sat 33rd or higher in all seasons. As a team, they have gone from below average in free throw percentage last season (67.9%, 271st in the country) to one of the nation's best at 78.9% (11th in the country). The defense is what is helping this team go from mid-tier Mountain West program to the potential of being a top-three program for the foreseeable future, and a lot of that comes from Medved and the strong coaching staff he's put together which includes Ali Farokhmanesh -- who you almost surely know as the hero of the Northern Iowa upset over Kansas. 

What's scary about this Rams team is that they are young. They have nine rotational pieces that play at least 25% of minutes, and none of them are seniors. The team is helmed by a pair of sophomores, the first being leading minutes-getter 6'0" guard Isaiah Stevens. Stevens plays 87.3% of the team's minutes and does a bit of everything. He's a former Mountain West Rookie of the Year and earned a nod to the All-Mountain West Second Team. He leads the offense as a scoring point guard that can do a bit of everything and while he's not at 50/40/90 splits, his 46/42/86 is almost absurd for a sophomore point guard that is also in charge of dishing out the ball to the tune of 5.3 assists per game this season. He is supported by All-Mountain West First Team selection David Roddy, a 6'5" swingman. Roddy is a listed 252 pounds, so despite his height, he can mix it up with the bigger forwards on any given team. He is the team's leading scorer and is the leader in the Torvik PORPAGATU! stat (points above a replacement player) with 4.3. 

Two sophomores leading the way bodes well for the future of the Rams, but they're also aided by a couple of juniors in All-Mountain West Honorable Mention Adam Thistlewood and 5'10" guard Kendle Moore. Moore is a third double-figure scorer for the team while the 6'6" Thistlewood gives a little extra length and another near-40% three-point shooter for this team to work with. I like this Colorado State team in a postseason setting a lot. There are multiple guys that can be looked at to score and do so in a variety of ways. They're well-coached and I think they'll be hungry to translate some NIT experience into a future in the NCAA Tournament like teams like Texas and TCU have in recent history.

Saint Louis (14-6, 6-4 in the Atlantic-10, #47 KenPom, #44 Torvik)
One of the hottest teams to talk about early in the season, Saint Louis cooled down sufficiently enough to just barely miss the NCAA Tournament. Ranked as high as #12 on Torvik (this ranking coming in the wake of an eleven-point win over North Carolina State, which followed a four-point home win over LSU), the Billikens suffered two tough losses to Dayton at home and La Salle on the road to open the A10 season, giving them two quick Q3 losses. They'd win four straight before another loss to Dayton and a loss to VCU saw them slip to #51 in Torvik's rankings, and a blow-out loss in the A10 Tournament to St. Bonaventure effectively ended their bubble hopes. Saint Louis lacked in games due largely to a COVID pause throughout most of January and just couldn't make up enough games. The resume is solid for the Billikens, and even despite the two "bad" losses I think they could have been overcome if they had simply played more games. 

Like Colorado State, the coaching situation here is worth mentioning, as the Billikens are led by Travis Ford. The former Oklahoma State coach inherited a brutal offensive team that had won 11 games the season before he joined and has pushed them into what I would consider a fairly consistent mid-major power in the last two seasons. Finishing 312th in offensive efficiency in his first season, Saint Louis currently sit 46th in an impressive show of improvement. Paired with a defense that has slipped a touch from the past two seasons, but is still in the top-60 in the nation, and you have a Saint Louis team that is a very easy pick to get through their region in this NIT. They're also one of the best rebounding teams in the country with a top-ten ranking in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. 

One of the biggest pluses for this Saint Louis team is the depth. As a team helmed by two seniors set to graduate, the depth that Ford has comes in spades and has been able to help him work some players into the rotation once the two stars of the team exit the program. Jordan Goodwin is the number one standout and has been for much of his career. A four-year starter, the senior guard entered the program as the 52nd ranked player in the 2017 class and is going to walk out as a two-time All-A10 First Team selection and two-time All-A10 Defensive team selection as well. Perhaps even more impressively, Goodwin is averaging a double-double with 14.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game despite standing just 6'3". He is not a huge threat from three, his career mark is just 27%, but he gets to the rim really well and is a strong ball-handler which allows him to drive to the rim well. He's assisted by Javonte Perkins, a 6'6" wing who has made a huge stamp to the program in his two years. Perkins scored 32 in the win over LSU and is, while perhaps not as acclaimed as Goodwin, the leader in PORPAGATU! by nearly a full point over Goodwin with a rating of 4.2. He's shooting 38.7% from three and leads the team in points per game with 17 per game. He's a high-level scorer in the three key facets of scoring (threes, midrange, and finishing at the rim) and is the perfect complementary piece to Goodwin.

Aside from these two, very few Saint Louis players are seeing huge minutes. As the season draws nearer towards its close, two of the more instrumental supporting pieces have revealed themselves to be 6'0" sophomore and former All-A10 Freshman Team selection Yuri Collins, the team's pure point guard who is averaging 6.2 assists per game, and Hasahn French, a 6'7" forward, the only other rotational senior, and a two-time All-A10 Defensive Team selection who averaged a double-double (points/rebounds) last season and has a career-rebounds per game of 8.4. French is the team's center and they're somewhat undersized, which could cause some issues. However, this is a really solid team that has two hallmarks of any successful postseason team -- great guard play and senior leadership. 

Mississippi (16-11, 10-8 in the SEC, #48 KenPom, #43 Torvik)
The first power conference team in the NIT, and technically the fourth and final 'First Four Out' team, Mississippi is another example of a team really on the rise under a recent new head coach hiring. Despite the solid season for the Rebels, the NIT has been on the cards for most of the season. The Rebels were 8-8 without a single marquee win and a 3-6 conference record when suddenly things picked up. The team would finish the season 8-3, starting with four straight wins including back-to-back Q1 wins over Tennessee at home and Auburn on the road. They would beat Missouri on the road as well but dropped winnable games at Vanderbilt and at home to Mississippi State in this stretch. Despite missing the tournament and perhaps dropping some games that needed to be wins, pushing themselves back onto the bubble when on February 1st that seemed improbable is a huge testament to this Mississippi team. 

Coach Kermit Davis was one of the hottest coaching prospects just a short while ago when his Middle Tennessee team beat Michigan State in a 15/2 NCAA Tournament match-up and followed that up the next year with a 12/5 upset of Minnesota. Davis spent one more season with MTSU, winning a game in that year's NIT, before moving to the SEC and, in his first season, taking a 12-win team the year before to the NCAA Tournament as an eight-seed. The past two seasons haven't seen heights like that, but this year's team has some very interesting and positive trends. Mississippi is rated as the 16th best defense in the nation, which is the highest it's ever been by a significant amount. They have also gone from one of the fastest teams in the country under Andy Kennedy (topping out at 16th in 2013), to the middle of the road (199th last season), to outright slow-paced at 308th this season. Davis's teams at Middle Tennessee never rose above 150th in tempo, so it makes sense that this Mississippi team is slowing down once his own player personnel is making up their roster. 

This Mississippi team is led by a pair of seniors, a four-year guard, and a transfer big. The guard is 6'2" Devontae Shuler, who was named to the All-SEC First Team for the first time this season. Shuler is sort of a classic case of a four-year player who improves and improves and ends up as a star of a team, which is something that I think makes college basketball great. Under Davis, his minutes and role saw a huge leap, culminating in serving as a point guard and key option for the offense to run through. He took 156 threes this season at a 34% clip and his usage of 25.5% is the highest on the team by a significant margin. He's a good passer and gets into the lane well, he takes a lot of shots and he makes a lot of shots. The attention he gets can open up freedom on the inside for that other senior, 6'8" big man Romello White. The former Arizona State Sun Devil was a highly sought after transfer early on in the transfer market, and he has seen a great deal of improvement on what was already a really superb Arizona State career. His field goal percentage jumped from 57% as a junior to 68% as a senior, and sits at 11.6 points per game, a career-high. He has a bit of range, shooting 57% on far twos, but he's taken just three threes in his career, all this season, missing them all. He does a lot of good work around the rim and is a nice blend of toughness, strength, and athleticism. 

Mississippi are aided heavily by a couple of juniors. Jarkell Joines is a 6'1" scoring guard that averages 11.6 points per game. He sat out a season as a transfer from Cal State Bakersfield, where he earned an All-WAC honor as a sophomore. His shooting numbers from deep dropped with the step up in competition, but he is an exceptional free throw shooter and tied with White when it comes to being the team's second-leading scorer. The other junior is 6'7" forward KJ Buffen, who can assist White when it comes to tough inside play. They also have the 41st overall recruit from this most recent cycle in Matthew Murrell -- a 6'4", 200-pound guard that is adjusting to the college game, as well as 6'6" sophomore Luis Rodriguez who has started every game this season and has seen steady improvement over his three years in the program (his true sophomore season got cut short by injury). This is a fun Mississippi team to look at because they have the sort of potential young players that could impact the team in the next year and beyond, but also the senior leadership that you need for a team to make a run in this season. They have a fairly tough draw, which we'll get to shortly, but they have the talent to make a run.

Memphis (16-8, 11-4 in the AAC, #38 KenPom, #27 Torvik)
Two years ago, Memphis was the talk of college basketball. After Tubby Smith left following two middling seasons, Penny Hardaway was given the keys to the kingdom. He almost immediately landed a class for his second year that was eye-popping, including the best freshman in the country, James Wiseman, and three other freshmen in the top-60. Well, everyone knows about the James Wiseman saga last year, and now Memphis, for the third straight season, has missed the NCAA Tournament while extending Hardaway's contract in the middle of the season. Hardaway's teams continue to improve; this Memphis team actually holds the best defense in the country according to Torvik, and the third-best on KenPom. They are the highest-ranked team to miss the NCAA Tournament on Torvik, they are rebounding better than ever under Hardaway, and they continue to bring in blue-chip prospects like Moussa Cisse this season and top-40 prospect Josh Minott next year. Where Memphis finished is a far cry from how their season started.

The Tigers hit rock bottom on January 17th thanks to a 58-57 loss at Tulsa. This loss came in the wake of a 56-49 loss at home to Tulsa, and a one-point win at home to South Florida in which they were down 12 with under eleven minutes to play. But after this game, very similar to Mississippi, they steadied the ship and seemed to play with some renewed vigor. A six-game win streak before losing to the AAC powerhouse that is Houston is how they entered the AAC Tournament, but they met Houston once again and lost to a heartbreaking nailbiter by two points. Without a Q1 win, the Tigers were just outside of tournament selection despite some very strong computer numbers. However, with Louisville not participating in the NIT, they've benefited with a one-seed in the tournament. 

The main man for Memphis is All-AAC First Team selection Landers Nolley II. The 6'7" sophomore wing was, like Mississippi's Romello White, a highly-touted transfer, and considered by some to be the best available transfer. The former All-ACC Freshman Team selection didn't score as much as he did with Virginia Tech, but he shot from three at a 37.2% mark, up over 5% from last season, which means his drives to the rim could be even more deadly given the respect needed for his three-point shot. Surrounding him is a group a little younger than he, but similarly talented. Moussa Cisse earned AAC Freshman of the Year honors thanks to his ability not just on offense but on defense as well, averaging nearly two blocks a game. Lester Quinones, hailed as an elite shooter coming out of high school, found his range and the 6'5" sophomore played a significant amount of point guard as well. Boogie Ellis, the 6'3" guard, earned the AAC's Sixth Man of the Year Award and shot 39.5% from three as well, while classmate D.J. Jeffries continued to improve upon a strong freshman year. The key to this Memphis team for the future is player development. The question now becomes if Penny Hardaway can develop this young group of players, or at least those who choose not to test the professional waters, to the point where people expected them to be in young four. The key for this NIT is gelling well together. On paper, this is perhaps the most talented team in the field. But they do have some tough tasks ahead if they want to win the NIT. 

The Regions

Now that we've covered, in detail, the one-seeds (and perhaps the favorites) within every region, let's go region by region and see what we've got.

Upper Left

In the upper left quadrant, Colorado State is your one-seed. Colorado State is matched up with Buffalo of the MAC in the first round, while the 2v3 matchup is Davidson vs. North Carolina State.

Davidson (13-8, 8-7 in the A10, #57 KenPom, #62 Torvik)

Bob McKillop's Wildcats are known for their Steph Curry March heroics, but that was over a decade ago now. Since then, Davidson have made four NCAA Tournaments and continued to bring in ultra-talented players into the fold, and one of the best Wildcats since Curry is set to make his last dance. Kellan Grady has been a four-year starter and has played at least 85% of minutes in each of his four seasons. He was a top-100 recruit in 2017 and he has certainly lived up to the billing, even if Davidson have never been able to take him dancing. Hyunjung Lee, a 6'7" sophomore, is set to be the next Wildcat star, and he's already shining brightly. Lee is shooting 46% from three on the season and just a shade under 42% on his career despite being just an underclassman. The Wildcats do their damage on offense and that's what they'll be hoping to use to carry them deep into early-April.

North Carolina State (13-10, 9-8 in the ACC, #73 KenPom, #54 Torvik)

Once upon a time, it was Kevin Keatts who was the hot young coaching prospect in the ACC (there sure are a lot of good young coaches in the game, lately). Well, that has cooled to some extent with the Wolfpack's middling success the last two seasons, and a particularly egregious snub in 2019's NCAA Tournament, but the Wolfpack are back in the NIT and, excluding the postseason loss to Syracuse, finished the season on a five-game win streak without their star guard Devon Daniels. They are another example of a deep team as, even without Daniels, they have the capacity to go eight-deep with comfort. Jericole Hellems is a 6'7" junior and has inherited the mantle of the key player for N.C. State without Daniels. He is averaging 14 points and almost five rebounds since the injury to Daniels and is shooting 38% from three and 77.4% from the free-throw line -- his efforts earning him an All-ACC Honorable Mention selection. This is a team that is graduating three stars, but with Hellems, Manny Bates, and Cam Hayes, among others, this is also a great experience for those that will be around next year to get potentially a handful of games against some good teams.

Buffalo (16-8, 12-5 in the MAC, #68 KenPom, #69 Torvik)

Buffalo has been, perhaps inarguably, the best basketball program in the MAC for the latter half of the decade. Jim Whitesell has continued the carry the mantle of the MAC after Nate Oats's move to Alabama, but this is a MAC that was extremely deep and with several teams possessing such talent that no one was a clear favorite in the conference. Buffalo seemed to be peaking at the right time with a five-game win streak to end the regular season and wins over Miami-Ohio and Akron in the conference tournament. But it was Ohio, riding the high of beating Toledo in the semi-finals, who won the conference final and punched their ticket, and sent this ultra-talented Buffalo team to the NIT. The Bulls have four players with a PPG average of 13.5 or higher, topped by junior Jeenathan Williams's 17.4. Williams was joined on the All-MAC Second Team by two teammates -- junior Josh Mballa, who also earned Defensive Player of the Year honors and is averaging a double-double, and senior guard Jayvon Graves, who can do a little bit of everything. This trio is joined by 6'0" junior point guard Ronaldo Segu, who averages 13.5 points and a team-high 4.4 assists per game. This NIT is perhaps no better suited for anyone else's future than Buffalo. This is a chance to send Graves off with memories of a postseason run while giving their core for next year big minutes against some borderline NCAA Tournament teams. 

Lower Left

In the lower-left, Memphis is the one seed, aligning with the idea that CSU is the number one overall seed, so Memphis is #4. The four seed Memphis will square off with is Dayton, of the Atlantic-10, while the two-seed Boise State gets the three-seed SMU, meaning we may see a regional final of AAC conference foes. 

Boise State (18-8, 14-6 in the Mountain West, #60 KenPom, #70 Torvik)

Once upon a time, Boise State were 13-1 and 9-0 in the Mountain West, and seemed almost certain for an NCAA Tournament bid. Unfortunately, the life of a mid-major is tough, and every loss matters. They would take one from the road against Colorado State, but got swept on the road to Nevada, lost on the road to Fresno State, and lost for a third time against Nevada in the conference tournament. That simply didn't cut it for the committee, and the ultra-talented Derrick Alston Jr. will be closing his career out in the NIT. Leon Rice has been at Boise State for a decade, now, and continues to field competitive teams with strong players like Alston and Chandler Hutchison before him. Alston is a rare 6'9" guard that does a bit of everything, flirting with a 50/40/90 stat line, coming in at 44.6/39/86.5. They have very solid size, with two other starters at 6'10" and 6'7", but the key figures to be how the smaller guards end up matching up with teams they play in this tournament. 

SMU (11-5, 7-4 in the AAC, #59 KenPom, #57 Torvik)

SMU's last game before the AAC Conference Tournament was on February 8th. 11-4 is not at all a bad place to be in a conference like the AAC, but when you have over a month off in-between games, and can't finish out your regular season due to COVID issues, it's going to be tough to get into the NCAA Tournament. Tim Jankovich's Mustangs are led by All-AAC First Team pick Kendric Davis, a 5'11" junior guard. Davis is averaging 18.8 points, 7.4 assists, four rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. He does it all and proved to be a great transfer pick-up from TCU. The issue, though, is what sort of help will he get from his teammates. Davis scored 35 points on 17 shots against Cincinnati in the AAC Tournament, and no one else had more than eight points. Feron Hunt is a fellow junior, standing 6'8", and was named an All-AAC Honorable Mention. He figures to be a likely suspect to be the second-in-command for this SMU team during this run.

Dayton (14-9, 9-7 in the A10, #79 KenPom, #84 Torvik)

It's hard to feel worse for anyone than Dayton due to the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament. Dayton lost three of their five starters from a team that was a very possible one-seed and a trendy favorite to consider for a deep run, and a fourth, point guard Rodney Chatman, missed significant time this season due to injury. This is still a good Dayton team, Anthony Grant is still a good coach, and there are some exciting pieces for the future, but this is, quite obviously, not the Dayton from last year. They do, however, have All-A10 First Teamer Jalen Crutcher and All-A10 Third Teamer Ibi Watson returning from last year and giving a jolt of senior enthusiasm. Both men played over 90% of available minutes on a team where no one else even hit 60%, though Chatman surely would have if he were healthy all season. The 6'1" Crutcher became even more of an assist threat without Chatman, scoring 18.1 points and adding 4.8 assists per game on an assist rate of 28.8%. The 6'5" Watson continued to be known for his sweet stroke from long distance, shooting 42.7% on over six attempts from three per game, and averaging 15.8 points per game. Dayton can go eight-deep as well and with Watson and Crutcher almost always in the game, there's always someone that can get you a bucket. But like the other two non-one-seeds in this region, it's all about the supporting cast. 

Upper Right

The upper right is home to Saint Louis as the one-seed. Saint Louis will take on Mississippi State in the first round while the two-seed Richmond faces the three-seed Toledo, meaning two teams from the MAC will participate.

Richmond (13-8, 6-5 in the A10, #65 KenPom, #61 Torvik)

Chris Mooney has called this graduating class his most talented class yet during this season. This Richmond team has been on and off the bubble but just seemed unable to pick up a win when they needed to in order to gain momentum. Regular season home losses to Hofstra, La Salle, and to Saint Joseph's on the last day of the season were brutal, but a loss in the Atlantic-10 Tournament against Duquesne knocked them off the bubble for good. This is a dangerous Richmond team with all four seniors in the rotation playing 70% or more of available minutes, and fifth starter, sophomore Tyler Burton fulfilling that criteria as well. They saw two players get named to the All-A10 Second Team: Blake Francis, who averaged 16.1 points and shot 36% from three, Jacob Gilyard, who, despite being 5'9", averaged 11.6 points and five assists; and a third to the All-A10 Third Team in Grant Golden, who averaged 12.7 points and six rebounds per game. All five starters average double-figure points and the lack of depth isn't a huge issue when you consider just how many minutes all five starters get.

Toledo (21-8, 15-4 in the MAC, #62 KenPom, #71 Torvik)

The favorite in the MAC for an extended period of time, like a couple of teams in this tournament, Toledo was well in command of their one-bid league. They were 16-4 and 11-1 in the MAC, with their only loss to a good Akron team on the road when they finished the regular season 4-3 and were beaten in the MAC Tournament by eventual champions Ohio. Simply cursed with peaking too early, or perhaps falling on a bad patch of form at the wrong time, that doesn't change the fact that Toledo has the MAC Coach of the Year in Ted Kowalczyk and the MAC Player of the Year in 6'1" senior guard Marreon Jackson. Jackson averages 18.4 points, six rebounds, six assists, and two steals per game, but what makes him dangerous is the fact that there is Spencer Littleson, a 6'4" senior guard, that can pick up the scoring burden if you cover him up. Littleson is shooting an absurd 47.4% from three on 213 attempts. This is a team that takes the 26th most threes in the nation, and they have several other options that can shoot just as well. All five of their starters also average in double-figures and they have four players who grade out at over 4.0 in the PORPAGATU! metric -- Jackson, Littleson, and 6'7" junior forward JT Shumate, a transfer from Walsh College who averages 11.5 points per game and is shooting 59.6% from the floor. This is an incredibly dangerous Toledo team that can hurt you from almost any position.

Mississippi State (15-14, 8-10 in the SEC, #77 KenPom, #66 Torvik)

One of two SEC teams from the state of Mississippi in the NIT this season, the Bulldogs of Mississippi State get to use this opportunity to get their young core of players to gel together. Five of the top six minutes-getters aren't just set to return next season, they're underclassmen. If you extend that to players who have played 20% of minutes or more, it's eight of ten, all underclassmen. The leaders are D.J. Stewart, a 6'6" swingman who was named to the All-SEC Second Team and averages 15.8 points per game, and Iverson Molina, a 6'3" combo guard who averages 16.6 points per game on 43.4% shooting from three. They are buoyed by a key senior in the heart of the team, and that's 6'11" center Abdul Ado, who was named to the All-Defensive Team in the SEC thanks to an 8.6% block rate, which levels out to over two blocks per game. By efficiency metrics, this is Ben Howland's best defensive team ever at Mississippi State, which is a huge sign of promise when you consider just how young they are. It's also his slowest, ranking near the 300s in tempo. This is a young team that has the chance to use this NIT to continue maturing and build into a successful 2021-22 season.

Lower Right

Rounding things out, we have Mississippi in the lower right. Mississippi squares off with Louisiana Tech while Saint Mary's of the West Coast Conference take on Western Kentucky in the 2v3 game. 

Saint Mary's (14-9, 4-6 in the West Coast, #75 KenPom, #72 Torvik)

It has been something of a rare down year for Randy Bennett's Gaels, not helped at all by COVID issues that saw Saint Mary's 11-5 before a stoppage and 3-4 after. Saint Mary's also struggled from three, shooting just 29.3% as a team, good for 328th in the country, an almost unbelievable drop-off from last year when they shot 38.8% as a team and sat fourth in the nation in that metric. Saint Mary's lost their three top players from last year's team, including star guard Jordan Ford, which meant someone new had to step up. Logan Johnson, a 6'2" transfer from Cincinnati who averaged just seven minutes per game last season, was that player. The junior averaged 13.5 points per game and earned himself an All-West Coast Second Team nod. Tommy Kuhse also had to step up as a senior and take on a larger role, and the 6'2" guard delivered with 12.6 points and 4.8 assists per game while averaging 35.5 minutes per game. Players like Johnson and Kuhse taking big steps up in productivity while Saint Mary's has a season that, while not up to their usual standards, is still solid is a great example of the program culture that Randy Bennett has brought about for Saint Mary's. While the West Coast gets better, the Gaels surely won't be left behind. 

Western Kentucky (20-7, 11-3 in the C-USA, #94 KenPom, #88 Torvik)

Since Rick Stansbury came to WKU in 2017, there has been a buzz around the program that hasn't been seen since Darrin Horn led them to the Sweet Sixteen in 2008, and perhaps even more heavily with the Mitchell Robinson saga still fresh in fans' minds when considering his NBA potential and buzz. Western Kentucky have another potential NBA big man draft pick this season, and that's 6'11" junior Charles Bassey. Bassey earned the C-USA Player of the Year Award and an All-Defensive Team selection after a dominant year in the conference with 17.7 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.2 blocks per game while shooting 60.2% from the field. His box plus/minus sat at 9.4, his block rate was 11.7%, his defensive rebounding rate was 30.8%, and overall he has been a force to be reckoned with. He also gets help from All-C-USA Second Team selection Taveion Hollingsworth, who's a four-year starter with a career average of 14.4 points per game, and a pair of snipers from long-range in Luke Frampton, a Davidson transfer, and Carson Williams, a Northern Kentucky transfer, who both shoot 41% from three on fairly low usage (neither are above 17%). This is a well-constructed roster that just wasn't able to get to the NCAA Tournament, but they could certainly make some noise in the NIT.

Louisiana Tech (21-7, 12-4 in the C-USA, #82 KenPom, #83 Torvik)

Rounding out the field, we have another C-USA member in Louisiana Tech. Eric Konkol has had his two best teams in school history in the past two seasons, and there is no shame in having the season they did and coming up short in the conference tournament to North Texas. They lost just one game, an early-season game against LSU, by double-figures, and are equipped with a defense that is near the top-30 in the nation. Louisiana Tech is also quite deep, with seven players having played in 50% of minutes. Kenneth Lofton Jr. earned the C-USA Rookie of the Year Award and was named to the All-C-USA Third Team. The 6'7" forward lives entirely inside the perimeter averaging eleven points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 56.2% from the field. He's assisted by fellow Third Team selection Isaiah Crawford, another forward standing 6'6". The sophomore averages 12.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while shooting roughly 40% from three. Louisiana Tech ended the season on a hot streak, finishing the regular season going 9-1 in their last ten games. They could continue this stretch and have the depth to ride the hot hand with how deep they can go in their rotation.

Final Thoughts and Predictions

This NIT field has a lot of teams that make sense for them to have accepted the invite, and in some regard, it feels like a CBI/CIT field with the prominence of mid-majors, some scattered high-majors, and a lot of teams that fall into either, a, lots of young players who could use the experience, or, b, teams with star seniors who will be looking to go out on a high note. 

The upper left quadrant feels like the region of death, to me. Colorado State is the closest team to the NCAA Tournament, but they are given no favors with a tough Buffalo team. If they win, they have either a Davidson team with two elite A-10 players or a North Carolina State team with some solid pieces in place. The lower left has three teams with really high-level players, and the key figures to be whichever supporting cast steps up the most will win, or get through Memphis. Out of the left, I'm going with Memphis over Davidson in the tournament semi-finals. This is a high-level Memphis team with stars and supporting cast players that have been played significantly better this second half of the season than the first. I think they should make at least the final.

The upper right features a couple of teams with high-level starters as well, and the Richmond vs. Toledo game could be a thriller. The Saint Louis vs. Mississippi State game is also an interesting battle between a team with two great senior guards and a team with a ton of young players. In the lower right, Mississippi has a hot Louisiana Tech team in the first round, a Western Kentucky with an elite center, and a Saint Mary's team that is always prepared and well-coached. I think we will get Saint Louis over Western Kentucky in the semi-final on this half. I think Mississippi State are a great test ahead of a potential Western Kentucky match-up. If they can get out of their region, I think they can use that to their advantage. 

In the final, I'll take Memphis over Saint Louis. I think this is a huge opportunity for Memphis, and I see Penny Hardaway able to hype this up like a Texas in 2019 deal and use this as a way to gear his team up to challenge for an AAC title next season. This is a really exciting tournament, and I'm looking forward to seeing which games I pick right and which games I swing and miss on!