The Detroit Tigers have, as of writing, lost nine games this season. They sit 18-29 but with a Pythagorean W-L of 14-33, they're actually doing well compared to their performances this season. This season has been, in a word, tough. But I love looking at baseball stats. There are just so many moving variable that make players valuable to different teams and can show true worth for players. Today, I'm going to take a dive into some of the numbers and pick apart the Tigers line-up and pitching rotation/bullpen.
The Lineup:
One of the biggest questions surrounding the Tigers, especially as of late, has been the question of lead-off man. The season started with Josh Harrison as lead-off hitter, but a deep slump combined with injury issues saw him removed from that role. From there, Jeimer Candelario took the spot but was demoted a few weeks ago in a shock move, leaving the role vacant again. Since Candelario's demotion, it has been Niko Goodrum or Gordon Beckham in that spot since then. Goodrum was a great option at the start of the month, when he was hitting .247 with a .369 OBP. However, thanks to a sixteen-game .148 stretch including nineteen strikeouts and just four walks, Goodrum is down to .213/.310. Still, Goodrum's 21 walks lead the Tigers. Only the Orioles and White Sox walk less than the Tigers, and when combined with the power outage that the Tigers have also had, that is a huge concern.
One of the Tigers biggest surprises this season has been Ronny Rodriguez coming onto the scene. In 33 fewer games and just 56% of the at-bats, Rodriguez has more home runs and one fewer RBI this season as he had all last season with the Tigers. He's been penned into the number five spot in the batting order and is the Tigers biggest credible power threat. Rodriguez, known as El Felino in the offseason when he's rapping, does have some holes in his game. The six walks to 32 strikeouts is a very valid concern for the free-swinging infielder. Teams have figured this out and Rodriguez has fallen into a mighty slump. Once hitting .340, on May 8th, and hitting .312/.357 just ten days ago, Rodriguez has, over the last eight games, somehow had a lower OBP (.125) than batting average (.133). He's struck out fourteen times in thirty at-bats and his average has dropped to .262. He also leads the team in errors and committed some costly ones in the past with inabilities to turn double plays. This regression to the mean seemed inevitable, but the Tigers are surely hoping the skid can slow down.
The Tigers have other concerns as well in the line-up. Miguel Cabrera has just one home run this season and despite another near-.300 season (with an OBP of .370) the total lack of power is a scary sign of things to come. Nicholas Castellanos was hoped to be putting up big numbers to drive up his trade value, but he has been merely fine within the Tigers line-up. Then you have the younger players (in which Goodrum and Rodriguez are included) that are different levels of consistent right now. Christin Stewart is getting back to pre-injury form in a welcome sign for the Tigers, but Jacoby Jones and Grayson Greiner both are hitting .175 or less. The plan for Jones has been to let him hit out of it, which he hasn't done a bad job of -- at one point he was hitting just .138 on the season. Greiner, however, has not hit a home run since April 26th, an extra base hit since May 9th, and is one-for-his last 22 as of time of writing. He is being given the chance to stake a claim for the everyday catching role, and he will need to swing the stick at least back up to the near-.220 mark if he wants to be kept around.
Pitching:
The Tigers starting rotation has been a thing of nightmares for Ron Gardenhire thanks to a steady dose of serious injuries. Michael Fulmer needed Tommy John surgery. Then Matt Moore needed knee surgery. Then it was Jordan Zimmermann's turn to go through injury battles with his elbow. Finally, Tyson Ross, their other rental pitcher, went down with another elbow injury. That's four-fifths of the Opening Day rotation heading into Spring Training wiped out for what has been a large chunk of time, with only Zimmermann expected back even somewhat soon (mid-June). In their place has been Spencer Turnbull, who leads AL starting pitching rookies in ERA at 2.68, and Matthew Boyd, who has a FIP of 2.91 and his eighty strikeouts have him tied for fourth in the AL. Daniel Norris has also pitched some nice performances but will look to keep going deeper into games for the Tigers.
Those three make up a solid enough rotation, but without two more starters, things are getting dicey. Gregory Soto has been the now-permanent fourth starter, but the once Minor League Pitcher of the Year for Detroit's organization has given up twelve runs in ten innings opening up games, and has not gotten past the fourth inning. Ryan Carpenter has not been better giving up thirteen earned runs in nine innings of work as a starter for the big league club. The problem for the Tigers is, however, that you don't expect to have a superb eighth starter as depth. Carpenter and Soto are fine to fill in, but relying on them for serious innings seems hazardous as of now, but perhaps good in Soto's case for him to finally get a taste of the show. The Tigers need another starter, and will likely need him on Saturday. Nick Ramirez started in the minors this season and has relieved Soto when the starter served as a makeshift 'opener' for the Tigers. Sandy Baez also started in Erie last season but has worked out of the bullpen all this season. There is also a spot available on the forty-man roster that could see someone added.
The Minor Leagues:
The Tigers' minor league ranks are loaded with prospects deeper than they ever have been under Dave Dombroski in the past. Al Avila is looking towards the future while filling the present-day side with players deemed not good enough by AL Central foes (see: Goodrum (Twins), Rodriguez (Indians), John Hicks (Twins), Gordon Beckham (White Sox)). The entire Erie rotation is full of players that provide perhaps the most optimism for fans going forward. Casey Mize pitched a no-hitter in his first Double-A start and is a top-ten prospect in the MLB Pipeline rankings. Matt Manning holds a 2.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts vs. thirteen walks, while he is holding opponents to a .168 average. Alex Faedo, previously a first round selection as well, is not faring as well, but is showing plenty of reasons to hope. Logan Shore and Anthony Castro round out the starting five and both holds WHIPs of 1.35 or below. The future is looking bright in Erie thanks to the pitching in Pennsylvania.
The Mud Hens are a bit more worrisome, but there are prospects that inspire hope as well. With injuries to Beau Burrows and Kyle Funkhouser, there are no true prospects in the rotation there. That means we've seen Matt Hall and Tyler Alexander hit walls this season, Spenser Watkins learning on the job, Drew VerHagen stretched out as a starter once again, and Tim Adleman (former Cincinnati Red) signed from the Long Island Ducks, all the while Ryan Carpenter leads starters with a 4.15 ERA. Hitting-wise, the standout was Dawel Lugo, but he has been called up and is going through the learning curve. Daz Cameron and Willi Castro are the two most inspiring prospects on the side, but both have strikeout numbers to cut down on. Jake Rogers, widely considered the best defensive prospect in the minors, is swinging the bat well in the early stages of his Toledo career as well, and could be the next Mud Hen added to the forty-man roster. There is also Jeimer Candelario rehabbing his swing down in the less-stressful situation with the AAA side. Despite the concerns for the Tigers currently, and even perhaps some with the prospects, there are many reasons to at least have some hope in the future.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty of Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
The Lineup:
One of the biggest questions surrounding the Tigers, especially as of late, has been the question of lead-off man. The season started with Josh Harrison as lead-off hitter, but a deep slump combined with injury issues saw him removed from that role. From there, Jeimer Candelario took the spot but was demoted a few weeks ago in a shock move, leaving the role vacant again. Since Candelario's demotion, it has been Niko Goodrum or Gordon Beckham in that spot since then. Goodrum was a great option at the start of the month, when he was hitting .247 with a .369 OBP. However, thanks to a sixteen-game .148 stretch including nineteen strikeouts and just four walks, Goodrum is down to .213/.310. Still, Goodrum's 21 walks lead the Tigers. Only the Orioles and White Sox walk less than the Tigers, and when combined with the power outage that the Tigers have also had, that is a huge concern.
One of the Tigers biggest surprises this season has been Ronny Rodriguez coming onto the scene. In 33 fewer games and just 56% of the at-bats, Rodriguez has more home runs and one fewer RBI this season as he had all last season with the Tigers. He's been penned into the number five spot in the batting order and is the Tigers biggest credible power threat. Rodriguez, known as El Felino in the offseason when he's rapping, does have some holes in his game. The six walks to 32 strikeouts is a very valid concern for the free-swinging infielder. Teams have figured this out and Rodriguez has fallen into a mighty slump. Once hitting .340, on May 8th, and hitting .312/.357 just ten days ago, Rodriguez has, over the last eight games, somehow had a lower OBP (.125) than batting average (.133). He's struck out fourteen times in thirty at-bats and his average has dropped to .262. He also leads the team in errors and committed some costly ones in the past with inabilities to turn double plays. This regression to the mean seemed inevitable, but the Tigers are surely hoping the skid can slow down.
The Tigers have other concerns as well in the line-up. Miguel Cabrera has just one home run this season and despite another near-.300 season (with an OBP of .370) the total lack of power is a scary sign of things to come. Nicholas Castellanos was hoped to be putting up big numbers to drive up his trade value, but he has been merely fine within the Tigers line-up. Then you have the younger players (in which Goodrum and Rodriguez are included) that are different levels of consistent right now. Christin Stewart is getting back to pre-injury form in a welcome sign for the Tigers, but Jacoby Jones and Grayson Greiner both are hitting .175 or less. The plan for Jones has been to let him hit out of it, which he hasn't done a bad job of -- at one point he was hitting just .138 on the season. Greiner, however, has not hit a home run since April 26th, an extra base hit since May 9th, and is one-for-his last 22 as of time of writing. He is being given the chance to stake a claim for the everyday catching role, and he will need to swing the stick at least back up to the near-.220 mark if he wants to be kept around.
Pitching:
The Tigers starting rotation has been a thing of nightmares for Ron Gardenhire thanks to a steady dose of serious injuries. Michael Fulmer needed Tommy John surgery. Then Matt Moore needed knee surgery. Then it was Jordan Zimmermann's turn to go through injury battles with his elbow. Finally, Tyson Ross, their other rental pitcher, went down with another elbow injury. That's four-fifths of the Opening Day rotation heading into Spring Training wiped out for what has been a large chunk of time, with only Zimmermann expected back even somewhat soon (mid-June). In their place has been Spencer Turnbull, who leads AL starting pitching rookies in ERA at 2.68, and Matthew Boyd, who has a FIP of 2.91 and his eighty strikeouts have him tied for fourth in the AL. Daniel Norris has also pitched some nice performances but will look to keep going deeper into games for the Tigers.
Those three make up a solid enough rotation, but without two more starters, things are getting dicey. Gregory Soto has been the now-permanent fourth starter, but the once Minor League Pitcher of the Year for Detroit's organization has given up twelve runs in ten innings opening up games, and has not gotten past the fourth inning. Ryan Carpenter has not been better giving up thirteen earned runs in nine innings of work as a starter for the big league club. The problem for the Tigers is, however, that you don't expect to have a superb eighth starter as depth. Carpenter and Soto are fine to fill in, but relying on them for serious innings seems hazardous as of now, but perhaps good in Soto's case for him to finally get a taste of the show. The Tigers need another starter, and will likely need him on Saturday. Nick Ramirez started in the minors this season and has relieved Soto when the starter served as a makeshift 'opener' for the Tigers. Sandy Baez also started in Erie last season but has worked out of the bullpen all this season. There is also a spot available on the forty-man roster that could see someone added.
The Minor Leagues:
The Tigers' minor league ranks are loaded with prospects deeper than they ever have been under Dave Dombroski in the past. Al Avila is looking towards the future while filling the present-day side with players deemed not good enough by AL Central foes (see: Goodrum (Twins), Rodriguez (Indians), John Hicks (Twins), Gordon Beckham (White Sox)). The entire Erie rotation is full of players that provide perhaps the most optimism for fans going forward. Casey Mize pitched a no-hitter in his first Double-A start and is a top-ten prospect in the MLB Pipeline rankings. Matt Manning holds a 2.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts vs. thirteen walks, while he is holding opponents to a .168 average. Alex Faedo, previously a first round selection as well, is not faring as well, but is showing plenty of reasons to hope. Logan Shore and Anthony Castro round out the starting five and both holds WHIPs of 1.35 or below. The future is looking bright in Erie thanks to the pitching in Pennsylvania.
The Mud Hens are a bit more worrisome, but there are prospects that inspire hope as well. With injuries to Beau Burrows and Kyle Funkhouser, there are no true prospects in the rotation there. That means we've seen Matt Hall and Tyler Alexander hit walls this season, Spenser Watkins learning on the job, Drew VerHagen stretched out as a starter once again, and Tim Adleman (former Cincinnati Red) signed from the Long Island Ducks, all the while Ryan Carpenter leads starters with a 4.15 ERA. Hitting-wise, the standout was Dawel Lugo, but he has been called up and is going through the learning curve. Daz Cameron and Willi Castro are the two most inspiring prospects on the side, but both have strikeout numbers to cut down on. Jake Rogers, widely considered the best defensive prospect in the minors, is swinging the bat well in the early stages of his Toledo career as well, and could be the next Mud Hen added to the forty-man roster. There is also Jeimer Candelario rehabbing his swing down in the less-stressful situation with the AAA side. Despite the concerns for the Tigers currently, and even perhaps some with the prospects, there are many reasons to at least have some hope in the future.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty of Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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