Big Ten play is back and here to stay in 2019. Michigan opens up the new year with another home bout, this time against Penn State. The Nittany Lions enter January 0-2 in the Big Ten thus far and are in need of something to get back on track with in the season. Can they get something going in the conference? We will wait and see.
Penn State -- An Overview:
When Penn State won the NIT last season, the Happy Valley faithful had plenty of reason to get excited. Shep Garner would be the only senior and if Tony Carr would return, four starters would come back include their top player. Well, Carr would declare for the NBA Draft and two top players off the bench would also not return (one graduate, one transfer). Instead, Patrick Chambers brought in yet another strong freshman class of three top players. This, however, has not resulted in great results. PSU is 7-6 and despite a great win at home to the current #10 team in the country, Virginia Tech, they opened conference play 0-2 with losses at Maryland and to Indiana, and also suffered defeat at DePaul and on a neutral court against Bradley. Patrick Chambers is on the hot seat. He needs to turn the season around for his troops who are shooting just 41.7% as a team (that's 293rd in the nation) if he wants an opportunity to play for something meaningful this March.
Starting Five:
Just two men have started all thirteen games for the Nittany Lions. The first man is junior Lamar Stevens. Standing 6'8", the forward can play plenty of positions and also has a solid handle on the ball. Stevens is averaging 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. The points total is good for fifth in the conference while the rebounds per game is seventh in the Big Ten. Additionally, thanks to an average of 35.5 minutes per game, he leads the Big Ten in minutes played (with a total of 461 this season). His 213 attempts average out to 16.4 per game and overall is second in the conference behind only Carsen Edwards of Purdue. He also, impressively, has the second-most two-point field goals taken, his 174 is behind only Ethan Happ of Wisconsin. Still, Stevens has room for improvement. After starting the season with five straight games of 22 points of more (averaging out to 24.8 points per game, he has since topped twenty points just once (scoring 25 against Duqesene) averaging out to 15.1 points per game in his last eight. His three-point percentage has never been a focal point, but this season he has been outright bad, shooting just under 18% (7-for-39) from deep, and just slightly above 15% in his last eight. Additionally, despite Patrick Chambers mentioning in Blue Ribbon before the season a wish for him to improve his passing, he remains just a touch under two assists per game and is averaging 2.8 turnovers per game as well. Despite being 'the man' for Penn State, there are plenty of areas that he can be improving upon to help out his team achieve what they hope this season.
The second man who has started all thirteen games is senior guard Josh Reaves. Standing 6'4", the lone starting senior is not as much a scoring threat as he is a strong defensive and leadership presence on the court. Averaging an even ten points and a team-high 3.5 assists, to go with a solid 5.1 rebounds per game, Reaves also leads the Big Ten in steals per game with 2.6. His minute total of 430 on the season is good for a tie for fourth in the conference with Edwards of Purdue. An All-Big Ten Defensive Team player last season, Reaves also returned to State College as the most prolific three-point shooter on the team with forty makes last season. His percentage is slightly down from last season (from 37.7% to 35.6%) but he's sitting at 16-for-45, which is also quite solid, and good for third most makes on the team. His free throw percentage is set to remain over 70% for the fourth straight year, but the two-pointers have dropped more so than any metric of his game. Last season he shot 55.7% from inside the arc, this season that is down to 47.7%. The added focus he has received has meant slight decreases in his numbers offensively, but his defense remains great and he is a senior leader for this team. He remains a steady figure nearly always on the court for Penn State.
He may have needed to earn a starting spot in the middle of the season, but freshman Rasir Bolton has been very impressive for Penn State this season. Standing 6'2" and just a freshman, Bolton is already a legitimate scoring threat for Penn State. His 31 three-point makes are tied for seventh in the conference and he's shooting 43.7% from distance. Bolton averages 14.2 points per game and is shooting about equal amounts from three (5.5 shots per game) as he is from two (4.6 shots per game). His even 42% is near level with his two fellow key upperclassman players, and he is already an elite free throw shooter at 87.8% from the line (43-for-49). Since becoming a starter, he has been even better than his full season stats, averaging 17.7 points and shooting 52.8% from three and 90% from the line. That said, as someone who is a point guard, his assist total of 1.3 per game compared to 3.2 turnovers per game over the six starts is surely a bit tough to swallow. It is tough to pass judgement along to such a young, and obviously talented, player, though. He is only going to get better as a player as his career develops.
Since returning from his disciplinary suspension, Mike Watkins has been a consistent starter for Penn State. A 6'9" redshirt junior, he has played the last eight games, starting the last five, and is another returning All Defensive Team player. An interior threat, he's averaged 2.5 blocks per game over his freshman and sophomore seasons. Over his five starts, a small but fair sample size, he's averaging 8.8 points and nine rebounds per game, along with a block per game on 47.1% shooting, all from two. His numbers are a bit lower than last season, but again, it is tough to accurately judge based on the limited sample size. That said, his performance does tell us that, a, he does not need to be a primary option for this team to succeed, but, b, his defense and rebounding alone make him worth starting and keeping on the court for his average of 22.8 minutes per game started. This will be a huge test for Jon Teske in both his interior defense on a Watkins that is shooting under his career average by 12.7%, as well as rebounding, and, additionally, a test to see if he is comfortable stepping out and hitting jumpers that perhaps Watkins will be unwilling to cover. That is certainly my match-up of the game.
The fifth and final starter is a bit more of a question mark for Penn State. Against UMBC it was Trent Buttrick. A 6'8" sophomore, Buttrick played just ten games last season. This season, though, he saw double figure minutes in the first four games, then saw playing time diminished, but was rewarded for a career-high thirteen point outing at Alabama with the start against UMBC. He played just eleven minutes, but he offers the ability to shoot and hit the three (he went three-for-three against Alabama) and is shooting just over 38% (8-for-21) on the season. A "tough and physical" kid, as described by Chambers, we will have to wait and see if he plays key minutes against Michigan.
Bench Rundown:
Entering the season, Myles Dread was a freshman who was so underrated that he got buzz for being underrated. A 6'4" freshman from Washington D.C., by way of Detroit, Dread started the first ten games of the season before Chambers decided to change things up because after a hot first four games, Dread began to struggle. Over the next six games, he shot just 22.2% and 16.7% from three for an average of four points. Coming off the bench has been a different story. Dread is averaging 9.7 points per game and shooting 50% from three (nine-for-eighteen) to boost his season average from 28.8% to 33.8%. Athletic and versatile, as well as a shooter closer to the 50% ability than the 16.7% variety, Dread is likely the future of Penn State basketball. Keeping him coming off the bench allows for an instant jolt of offense for 15-20 minutes per game. Keeping Dread's expectations tempered seems to be the best idea. Stevens and Reaves are the upperclassmen, let them carry the weight on the court, that allows Dread to develop his game in a bit less spotlight. This strategy seems to be one of the best that Patrick Chambers has come up with this season.
Another player who has seen plenty of starts this season is Jamari Wheeler. A 6'1" sophomore, Wheeler seems poised next season to help fill the void of Reaves in terms of active on-ball defense. When Chambers spoke to Blue Ribbon, though, he mentioned Wheeler's need for better shooting, and that has proved prophetic. Just 4-for-28 from three as a freshman (14.3%), he is three-for-fourteen (21.4%) this season. Still, Wheeler is averaging a career amount of 1.25 steals per game and his 52 on the year last season were second behind Reaves for Penn State. He limits turnovers well, finds teammates consistently (1.8 assists per game), and has improved rebounding so as to average 3.4 per game, up from 1.8 per game last season. He does not need to score to have an impact, but the additional production that could come as a result from an added dimension of scoring would be huge.
The third, and final, key freshman for Penn State this season is Myreon Jones. A former Memphis commit, Jones is a 6'3" guard that does a ton right for his team. He can shoot from outside, off the dribble, and drive to the line, and in limited action (averaging 13.7 minutes per game) he can catch teams by surprise. That happened in a breakout game against Virginia Tech where he scored seventeen points in 22 minutes on seven-for-eleven shooting with four threes. He took sixteen shots against Alabama and while he only made three, that sort of confidence is impressive for a freshman who is eighth on the team in minutes. He's shooting an overall 29.7%, so that number needs improvement, but he is more of a project than either of the other two freshman players.
The final bench piece is sophomore forward John Harrar. Standing 6'9", Harrar started the season in the starting five before dropping to the bench after the first two Big Ten games to make way for Watkins. Still, Harrar has seen his shots taken per game remain fairly stable while he still averages over fifteen minutes per game. He averages 3.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game and is shooting 54.3% on 2.7 shots per game. He is not needed to put up a bunch of shots, but rather he is needed to provide quality minutes down low when the team needs a physical presence to rebound in place of Watkins. He is currently averaging, largely as a result of his time spent starting with no Watkins, the sixth most minutes on the team, and Chambers' trust in Harrar seems to be rewarded with solid play.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
This is a game Michigan needs to win to start the new year on the right foot. This Penn State team has been struggling as of late and while they always seem to test Michigan, they are under-performing as a whole. Tony Carr's leaving has left a hole in the line-up yet to be fully filled and Patrick Chambers' line-up shifts have meant there is no true rhythm within the team. While nine men are sure to be played, the question will linger of who plays when and for how long. Myles Dread is the player off the bench that I think can hurt Michigan. Coming on for someone like Trent Buttrick means that Michigan would have to think about covering him, but also need A+ defense on Lamar Stevens as well. I would guess Charles Matthews starts the game on Stevens, but if Dread comes in, does Ignas Brazdeikis simply attempt to guard him? Will Dread's quickness get the better of him? Then we also have the guards as well. Zavier Simpson on Rasir Bolton would make sense to me, and Jordan Poole would be left on Josh Reaves. Teams like a Penn State that can have two or more players score on any given night are match-up nightmares, but the question is whether or not they can put together a full team performance. Any team can get hot on any given night, and Michigan's defense will need to be up to the task of playing good perimeter defense while covering the drive on guys like Stevens and Dread.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Penn State -- An Overview:
When Penn State won the NIT last season, the Happy Valley faithful had plenty of reason to get excited. Shep Garner would be the only senior and if Tony Carr would return, four starters would come back include their top player. Well, Carr would declare for the NBA Draft and two top players off the bench would also not return (one graduate, one transfer). Instead, Patrick Chambers brought in yet another strong freshman class of three top players. This, however, has not resulted in great results. PSU is 7-6 and despite a great win at home to the current #10 team in the country, Virginia Tech, they opened conference play 0-2 with losses at Maryland and to Indiana, and also suffered defeat at DePaul and on a neutral court against Bradley. Patrick Chambers is on the hot seat. He needs to turn the season around for his troops who are shooting just 41.7% as a team (that's 293rd in the nation) if he wants an opportunity to play for something meaningful this March.
Starting Five:
Just two men have started all thirteen games for the Nittany Lions. The first man is junior Lamar Stevens. Standing 6'8", the forward can play plenty of positions and also has a solid handle on the ball. Stevens is averaging 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. The points total is good for fifth in the conference while the rebounds per game is seventh in the Big Ten. Additionally, thanks to an average of 35.5 minutes per game, he leads the Big Ten in minutes played (with a total of 461 this season). His 213 attempts average out to 16.4 per game and overall is second in the conference behind only Carsen Edwards of Purdue. He also, impressively, has the second-most two-point field goals taken, his 174 is behind only Ethan Happ of Wisconsin. Still, Stevens has room for improvement. After starting the season with five straight games of 22 points of more (averaging out to 24.8 points per game, he has since topped twenty points just once (scoring 25 against Duqesene) averaging out to 15.1 points per game in his last eight. His three-point percentage has never been a focal point, but this season he has been outright bad, shooting just under 18% (7-for-39) from deep, and just slightly above 15% in his last eight. Additionally, despite Patrick Chambers mentioning in Blue Ribbon before the season a wish for him to improve his passing, he remains just a touch under two assists per game and is averaging 2.8 turnovers per game as well. Despite being 'the man' for Penn State, there are plenty of areas that he can be improving upon to help out his team achieve what they hope this season.
The second man who has started all thirteen games is senior guard Josh Reaves. Standing 6'4", the lone starting senior is not as much a scoring threat as he is a strong defensive and leadership presence on the court. Averaging an even ten points and a team-high 3.5 assists, to go with a solid 5.1 rebounds per game, Reaves also leads the Big Ten in steals per game with 2.6. His minute total of 430 on the season is good for a tie for fourth in the conference with Edwards of Purdue. An All-Big Ten Defensive Team player last season, Reaves also returned to State College as the most prolific three-point shooter on the team with forty makes last season. His percentage is slightly down from last season (from 37.7% to 35.6%) but he's sitting at 16-for-45, which is also quite solid, and good for third most makes on the team. His free throw percentage is set to remain over 70% for the fourth straight year, but the two-pointers have dropped more so than any metric of his game. Last season he shot 55.7% from inside the arc, this season that is down to 47.7%. The added focus he has received has meant slight decreases in his numbers offensively, but his defense remains great and he is a senior leader for this team. He remains a steady figure nearly always on the court for Penn State.
He may have needed to earn a starting spot in the middle of the season, but freshman Rasir Bolton has been very impressive for Penn State this season. Standing 6'2" and just a freshman, Bolton is already a legitimate scoring threat for Penn State. His 31 three-point makes are tied for seventh in the conference and he's shooting 43.7% from distance. Bolton averages 14.2 points per game and is shooting about equal amounts from three (5.5 shots per game) as he is from two (4.6 shots per game). His even 42% is near level with his two fellow key upperclassman players, and he is already an elite free throw shooter at 87.8% from the line (43-for-49). Since becoming a starter, he has been even better than his full season stats, averaging 17.7 points and shooting 52.8% from three and 90% from the line. That said, as someone who is a point guard, his assist total of 1.3 per game compared to 3.2 turnovers per game over the six starts is surely a bit tough to swallow. It is tough to pass judgement along to such a young, and obviously talented, player, though. He is only going to get better as a player as his career develops.
Since returning from his disciplinary suspension, Mike Watkins has been a consistent starter for Penn State. A 6'9" redshirt junior, he has played the last eight games, starting the last five, and is another returning All Defensive Team player. An interior threat, he's averaged 2.5 blocks per game over his freshman and sophomore seasons. Over his five starts, a small but fair sample size, he's averaging 8.8 points and nine rebounds per game, along with a block per game on 47.1% shooting, all from two. His numbers are a bit lower than last season, but again, it is tough to accurately judge based on the limited sample size. That said, his performance does tell us that, a, he does not need to be a primary option for this team to succeed, but, b, his defense and rebounding alone make him worth starting and keeping on the court for his average of 22.8 minutes per game started. This will be a huge test for Jon Teske in both his interior defense on a Watkins that is shooting under his career average by 12.7%, as well as rebounding, and, additionally, a test to see if he is comfortable stepping out and hitting jumpers that perhaps Watkins will be unwilling to cover. That is certainly my match-up of the game.
The fifth and final starter is a bit more of a question mark for Penn State. Against UMBC it was Trent Buttrick. A 6'8" sophomore, Buttrick played just ten games last season. This season, though, he saw double figure minutes in the first four games, then saw playing time diminished, but was rewarded for a career-high thirteen point outing at Alabama with the start against UMBC. He played just eleven minutes, but he offers the ability to shoot and hit the three (he went three-for-three against Alabama) and is shooting just over 38% (8-for-21) on the season. A "tough and physical" kid, as described by Chambers, we will have to wait and see if he plays key minutes against Michigan.
Bench Rundown:
Entering the season, Myles Dread was a freshman who was so underrated that he got buzz for being underrated. A 6'4" freshman from Washington D.C., by way of Detroit, Dread started the first ten games of the season before Chambers decided to change things up because after a hot first four games, Dread began to struggle. Over the next six games, he shot just 22.2% and 16.7% from three for an average of four points. Coming off the bench has been a different story. Dread is averaging 9.7 points per game and shooting 50% from three (nine-for-eighteen) to boost his season average from 28.8% to 33.8%. Athletic and versatile, as well as a shooter closer to the 50% ability than the 16.7% variety, Dread is likely the future of Penn State basketball. Keeping him coming off the bench allows for an instant jolt of offense for 15-20 minutes per game. Keeping Dread's expectations tempered seems to be the best idea. Stevens and Reaves are the upperclassmen, let them carry the weight on the court, that allows Dread to develop his game in a bit less spotlight. This strategy seems to be one of the best that Patrick Chambers has come up with this season.
Another player who has seen plenty of starts this season is Jamari Wheeler. A 6'1" sophomore, Wheeler seems poised next season to help fill the void of Reaves in terms of active on-ball defense. When Chambers spoke to Blue Ribbon, though, he mentioned Wheeler's need for better shooting, and that has proved prophetic. Just 4-for-28 from three as a freshman (14.3%), he is three-for-fourteen (21.4%) this season. Still, Wheeler is averaging a career amount of 1.25 steals per game and his 52 on the year last season were second behind Reaves for Penn State. He limits turnovers well, finds teammates consistently (1.8 assists per game), and has improved rebounding so as to average 3.4 per game, up from 1.8 per game last season. He does not need to score to have an impact, but the additional production that could come as a result from an added dimension of scoring would be huge.
The third, and final, key freshman for Penn State this season is Myreon Jones. A former Memphis commit, Jones is a 6'3" guard that does a ton right for his team. He can shoot from outside, off the dribble, and drive to the line, and in limited action (averaging 13.7 minutes per game) he can catch teams by surprise. That happened in a breakout game against Virginia Tech where he scored seventeen points in 22 minutes on seven-for-eleven shooting with four threes. He took sixteen shots against Alabama and while he only made three, that sort of confidence is impressive for a freshman who is eighth on the team in minutes. He's shooting an overall 29.7%, so that number needs improvement, but he is more of a project than either of the other two freshman players.
The final bench piece is sophomore forward John Harrar. Standing 6'9", Harrar started the season in the starting five before dropping to the bench after the first two Big Ten games to make way for Watkins. Still, Harrar has seen his shots taken per game remain fairly stable while he still averages over fifteen minutes per game. He averages 3.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game and is shooting 54.3% on 2.7 shots per game. He is not needed to put up a bunch of shots, but rather he is needed to provide quality minutes down low when the team needs a physical presence to rebound in place of Watkins. He is currently averaging, largely as a result of his time spent starting with no Watkins, the sixth most minutes on the team, and Chambers' trust in Harrar seems to be rewarded with solid play.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
This is a game Michigan needs to win to start the new year on the right foot. This Penn State team has been struggling as of late and while they always seem to test Michigan, they are under-performing as a whole. Tony Carr's leaving has left a hole in the line-up yet to be fully filled and Patrick Chambers' line-up shifts have meant there is no true rhythm within the team. While nine men are sure to be played, the question will linger of who plays when and for how long. Myles Dread is the player off the bench that I think can hurt Michigan. Coming on for someone like Trent Buttrick means that Michigan would have to think about covering him, but also need A+ defense on Lamar Stevens as well. I would guess Charles Matthews starts the game on Stevens, but if Dread comes in, does Ignas Brazdeikis simply attempt to guard him? Will Dread's quickness get the better of him? Then we also have the guards as well. Zavier Simpson on Rasir Bolton would make sense to me, and Jordan Poole would be left on Josh Reaves. Teams like a Penn State that can have two or more players score on any given night are match-up nightmares, but the question is whether or not they can put together a full team performance. Any team can get hot on any given night, and Michigan's defense will need to be up to the task of playing good perimeter defense while covering the drive on guys like Stevens and Dread.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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