It's a battle of two of the remaining four undefeated teams, and that list will be cut down to three after Michigan State and Ohio State do battle on Saturday. Michigan and Indiana square off in the sides' fourth Big Ten games of the season and will hope to continue onward in what can certainly be classified as a solid season for both teams at this stage of the year.
Indiana -- An Overview:
Indiana head into Crisler Center ranked 21st in the country with a very good 12-2 record, and three victories in Big Ten play over Northwestern and Illinois at home and Penn State on the road. None of the three games was a runaway performance from an IU team that has suffered multiple injuries, and, in fact, they were tied with Illinois at the half and only beat their first two league opponents by two points each. Their two losses were nothing to be ashamed of, a big loss on the road to Duke, and a hard-luck loss at Arkansas that saw a refereeing decision come in to hurt them. Their big win early in the season over Marquette along with tight wins over Louisville and Butler (the latter in Indianapolis) give their resume an impressive look to it, but it lacks a statement road win. Heading to Michigan and beating them would be just that. This is an Indiana team far improved from the barely-.500 side that lost at home to Indiana State and IPFW, and Rutgers in the conference tournament. As a whole, they are the second-best field-goal shooting team in the country (52.6%) and fourth best two-pointer team in the nation (60.3%). Archie Miller is recruiting well and has players believing, and that will go a long way for him this season.
Starting Five:
When thinking about Indiana this season, everyone, rightfully, immediately thinks about star freshman Romeo Langford. A 6'6" freshman, Langford is living up to the hype for the Hoosiers. Walking into school as a Preseason Freshman of the Year and even an early pick for the Preseason All-Big Ten Team, he's currently averaging just over 18.3 points per game along with 5.7 rebounds. He has played the third-most minutes in the Big Ten (465) along with hitting the fifth-most field goals (89) in the conference as well. The 18.3 point average is fifth in the conference, and he's doing so on 63.4% shooting from two. His three point stroke needs work, he is shooting just 21.6% from beyond the arc (11-for-51) and is just 12.5% over his last five games. Despite that, Langford is a supremely smooth player getting to the rim, and he gets fouled to the tune of the fifth-most free throws taken in the conference at a clip just under 70%. He is yet to score fewer than twelve points in his career and he has six games of over twenty points, including his career-high 28 point game against Illinois. He's also recorded two double-doubles in his career, and both games saw him dish out joint career-highs in assists with five. His three-point percentage does not scare me off entirely in terms of his NBA prospects, but when gameplanning against him I think it will be key for Charles Matthews to close out strong while staying low and preparing for the drive to the basket. As mentioned, he is so smooth that he can glide past defenders. But, if Michigan can stop him from two, they have a good chance of winning the game. His two worst shooting performances were in his teams' two losses. Michigan will hope to equal that to get a win.
The Hoosiers have another Preseason All-Big Ten Team player, and that's 6'8" senior forward Juwan Morgan. Morgan made a huge jump under Archie Miller last season, and this season he has been even better. He is in-between in terms of size, but his perimeter game has been greatly improved and his rebounding has remaining steady. He is averaging 16.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, both impressively similar to last season, but he has needed to score less with Langford by his side. Instead, Morgan has been able to focus on the aforementioned perimeter development where he shoots 45.2% (14-for-31) which is a massive jump from 30.2% his junior year. From two, he is even better. His 74.3% leads the Big Ten and leads the nation among players with one hundred or more attempts. Among players with at least fifty attempts, he ranks sixth, which is still incredibly impressive. He has been massive for this team and really presents a unique challenge for Michigan. He is likely to be guarded by Ignas Brazdeikis, given how he can take his defender out to the three-point line, but will Morgan be too strong for the freshman? That is the concern for Michigan, whose two-point defensive shooting percentage has seen a bit of a dip in form as of late. The hope is that there will be a game plan that can work to minimize Morgan's effectiveness in the half-court, where he has been so good for Indiana this year.
With injury bothers all throughout the season, Indiana has had just one other player start every game of the season, and that is sophomore Justin Smith. Standing 6'7" and weighing 220 pounds, Smith is the second forward on the Hoosiers team. Smith was a top-100 recruit in 2017, but his freshman year was nothing to seriously write home about. He has been better this year in about eight more minutes per game, averaging 8.7 points and 3.8 rebounds per game, but his shooting percentages have remained about the same. He has also taken just five threes this season (hitting two) which leads me to believe that Jon Teske will draw the assignment on him so as to avoid any perimeter scares that could result in his guarding Morgan. After a zero-point game against Penn State, though, Smith has found good form as he's averaging 25.4 minutes and scoring 9.4 points and 4.2 rebounds on 71% shooting overall. He has the stamina to remain in the game for long periods of time, and his athleticism means he can beat bigger players off the dribble. His match-up will be huge for fans to watch, especially if it is indeed Teske on the smaller man. He's been very good as of late, and his development as a third scorer would be well-received by the Indiana coaching staff.
Al Durham missed the first game of the season and came off the bench in the second, but since then he has been a mainstay in the Hoosiers line-up. A 6'4" sophomore, the guard has been inconsistent with his performances. While his improvement from freshman to sophomore year has been a bit more than Smith's has, it is tough to tell where his level is. Is it the eighteen-point, three-for-five from three outing against Jacksonville in 32 minutes played, or is it the zero-for-three outing in eighteen minutes against Butler? Likely, it is somewhere in-between. In an average of 25 minutes per game, he is averaging 8.5 points and 1.5 assists, but his turnover numbers are up a full turnover from last season, a disheartening sign for a freshman who was so strong in holding on to the ball. He shoots 41% from three (16-for-39) and 45.7% overall. He is a strong free throw shooter at 77.8% (21-for-27) but, interestingly, that is all over just six games. The other seven he has not taken a single shot from the line. The key is consistency, if he can find a solid level, he will be a piece to watch in the future.
With the injury of freshman point guard Rob Phinisee, Miller has turned to Devonte Green to run the point for his side. A 6'3" junior, Green missed four games earlier this season due to a thigh injury, but Green has returned and seen a massive uptick in performance after Phinisee's injury. In the three most recent games, including two starts and one where he saw the lion's share of minutes, Green is averaging 13.3 points and 4.7 assists, along with 5.3 rebounds on 37.5% shooting in 32.3 minutes per game. Three of his four highest scoring performances of the season have come in the last three games, including nineteen against Central Arkansas. Over the full season, his averages are a bit lower. He is averaging 8.1 points, 3.6 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game with an average of 23.8 minutes per game as well. His three-point percentage is at a career-low at Indiana at just 33.3%, but it is improved to just a shade under 39% over the last three games. Green's ability to fill in at point is key for this team in sustaining its early-season momentum.
Bench Rundown:
While Archie Miller is quite situational in using his bench, and only one man came off the bench to put in double-digit minutes against Illinois, we are incredibly likely to see at least four men appear in the game.
The first is the man that put in 24 minute against the Fighting Illini, senior Zach McRoberts. McRoberts is coming off an injury that sidelined him for five games earlier this season, the same span as Green. A former walk-on transfer from Vermont, and current captain, the 6'6" guard is the textbook definition of what you'd expect when an announcer calls someone "scrappy" on the court. A very good defender for the Hoosiers, McRoberts has taken just ten shots this season in 152 minutes played, including two starts. All eleven of his points came in the first three games of the season, since then he is zero-for-six. Expect him on the court to give energy and quality defensive minutes and smart play (for all his time on the court, he has just three turnovers, including none in his last four).
The next man off the bench is Evan Fitzner, a grad transfer from Saint Mary's for the season. Standing 6'10", he is the big man off the bench who is just one of four players to have appeared in all fourteen games this season. Fitzner is averaging 4.9 points and 3.1 rebounds in 14.4 minutes per game and is shooting a career-high 51.1%. He offers important size off the bench, which we will surely see if Jon Teske gets going offensively against the pack-line defense. He is also 43.5% from three (10-for-23) and gives an added dimension to the team with that when needed.
Damezi Anderson is the other freshman who sees minutes for Miller's side. Anderson was forced into early season action during the Hoosiers' injury troubles, and over the first five games of the season he logged an average of 19.6 minutes per game and 45% shooting. Since then, he suffered an injury of his own and is back to more of a 'project' status for Indiana. As he develops, he is more of a shooter off the bench (7-for-21 for 33.3%) while his game rounds itself out. These minutes in his freshman season could result in a very good four-year collegiate player in Anderson as he develops over the course of the season and offseason.
Finally, we have De'Ron Davis to round out the side. Davis is a player who suffered a season-ending injury as a sophomore last season after a hot start, then trail off. The 6'10" junior is back, though, and while he's seeing much less of the court now than last season, he still offers experience and skill. He's averaging almost 65% from the field and is able to play 15-20 minutes if needed. He is currently averaging 11.2 minutes and 4.8 points per game. If Teske is too physical for Fitzner, perhaps Davis plays extended minutes for Miller's club.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
This game boils down to slowing down the two key figures for Indiana, Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan. Al Durham is the only other player that will play on Sunday to have double-digit scoring performances against a 'power conference' team. If Charles Matthews' length and NBA-level defense can affect Langford, while Ignas Brazdeikis can handle Morgan (or if Jon Teske's size halts his two-point ability) then Michigan puts themselves in a great position to take the ball game. The other strategy is to silence every other supporting cast player, as Michigan did well against Purdue, while slowing the star (Carsen Edwards, or in this case Langford) enough for it to not matter that he got his. Regardless, Michigan will likely leave it up to either the supporting cast to help out their two All-Big Ten caliber players, or tell Langford and Morgan to try and beat them.
On the offensive end, Michigan needs to attack the pack-line defense. This sort of defense allows itself to be shot over, though. The problem, here, is that Indiana's three-point defense is in the top-forty in the country. Likewise, they're in the top-fifty at allowing opponents to get to the line, and their free throw defense is third in the country. Michigan's question is two-fold: how can we spread the floor to get open looks, and how can we get inside the paint if there are none outside? This falls on the guards, namely Zavier Simpson, to dribble-drive and kick to open men in the corners. Jordan Poole has the job of being both a driver and a shooter potentially. I really think the key to this game, though, is Charles Matthews. Matthews can drive and shoot, but he needs to do both well against Indiana's strong defensive alignment in order to give Michigan a good shot at winning. Last year, this game was Poole's coming-out party, with five threes. Against a team that does not shoot a ton of threes, but hits them at a consistent rate, the behind behind the line may be the one to decide who walks out of Ann Arbor 4-0.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Indiana -- An Overview:
Indiana head into Crisler Center ranked 21st in the country with a very good 12-2 record, and three victories in Big Ten play over Northwestern and Illinois at home and Penn State on the road. None of the three games was a runaway performance from an IU team that has suffered multiple injuries, and, in fact, they were tied with Illinois at the half and only beat their first two league opponents by two points each. Their two losses were nothing to be ashamed of, a big loss on the road to Duke, and a hard-luck loss at Arkansas that saw a refereeing decision come in to hurt them. Their big win early in the season over Marquette along with tight wins over Louisville and Butler (the latter in Indianapolis) give their resume an impressive look to it, but it lacks a statement road win. Heading to Michigan and beating them would be just that. This is an Indiana team far improved from the barely-.500 side that lost at home to Indiana State and IPFW, and Rutgers in the conference tournament. As a whole, they are the second-best field-goal shooting team in the country (52.6%) and fourth best two-pointer team in the nation (60.3%). Archie Miller is recruiting well and has players believing, and that will go a long way for him this season.
Starting Five:
When thinking about Indiana this season, everyone, rightfully, immediately thinks about star freshman Romeo Langford. A 6'6" freshman, Langford is living up to the hype for the Hoosiers. Walking into school as a Preseason Freshman of the Year and even an early pick for the Preseason All-Big Ten Team, he's currently averaging just over 18.3 points per game along with 5.7 rebounds. He has played the third-most minutes in the Big Ten (465) along with hitting the fifth-most field goals (89) in the conference as well. The 18.3 point average is fifth in the conference, and he's doing so on 63.4% shooting from two. His three point stroke needs work, he is shooting just 21.6% from beyond the arc (11-for-51) and is just 12.5% over his last five games. Despite that, Langford is a supremely smooth player getting to the rim, and he gets fouled to the tune of the fifth-most free throws taken in the conference at a clip just under 70%. He is yet to score fewer than twelve points in his career and he has six games of over twenty points, including his career-high 28 point game against Illinois. He's also recorded two double-doubles in his career, and both games saw him dish out joint career-highs in assists with five. His three-point percentage does not scare me off entirely in terms of his NBA prospects, but when gameplanning against him I think it will be key for Charles Matthews to close out strong while staying low and preparing for the drive to the basket. As mentioned, he is so smooth that he can glide past defenders. But, if Michigan can stop him from two, they have a good chance of winning the game. His two worst shooting performances were in his teams' two losses. Michigan will hope to equal that to get a win.
The Hoosiers have another Preseason All-Big Ten Team player, and that's 6'8" senior forward Juwan Morgan. Morgan made a huge jump under Archie Miller last season, and this season he has been even better. He is in-between in terms of size, but his perimeter game has been greatly improved and his rebounding has remaining steady. He is averaging 16.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, both impressively similar to last season, but he has needed to score less with Langford by his side. Instead, Morgan has been able to focus on the aforementioned perimeter development where he shoots 45.2% (14-for-31) which is a massive jump from 30.2% his junior year. From two, he is even better. His 74.3% leads the Big Ten and leads the nation among players with one hundred or more attempts. Among players with at least fifty attempts, he ranks sixth, which is still incredibly impressive. He has been massive for this team and really presents a unique challenge for Michigan. He is likely to be guarded by Ignas Brazdeikis, given how he can take his defender out to the three-point line, but will Morgan be too strong for the freshman? That is the concern for Michigan, whose two-point defensive shooting percentage has seen a bit of a dip in form as of late. The hope is that there will be a game plan that can work to minimize Morgan's effectiveness in the half-court, where he has been so good for Indiana this year.
With injury bothers all throughout the season, Indiana has had just one other player start every game of the season, and that is sophomore Justin Smith. Standing 6'7" and weighing 220 pounds, Smith is the second forward on the Hoosiers team. Smith was a top-100 recruit in 2017, but his freshman year was nothing to seriously write home about. He has been better this year in about eight more minutes per game, averaging 8.7 points and 3.8 rebounds per game, but his shooting percentages have remained about the same. He has also taken just five threes this season (hitting two) which leads me to believe that Jon Teske will draw the assignment on him so as to avoid any perimeter scares that could result in his guarding Morgan. After a zero-point game against Penn State, though, Smith has found good form as he's averaging 25.4 minutes and scoring 9.4 points and 4.2 rebounds on 71% shooting overall. He has the stamina to remain in the game for long periods of time, and his athleticism means he can beat bigger players off the dribble. His match-up will be huge for fans to watch, especially if it is indeed Teske on the smaller man. He's been very good as of late, and his development as a third scorer would be well-received by the Indiana coaching staff.
Al Durham missed the first game of the season and came off the bench in the second, but since then he has been a mainstay in the Hoosiers line-up. A 6'4" sophomore, the guard has been inconsistent with his performances. While his improvement from freshman to sophomore year has been a bit more than Smith's has, it is tough to tell where his level is. Is it the eighteen-point, three-for-five from three outing against Jacksonville in 32 minutes played, or is it the zero-for-three outing in eighteen minutes against Butler? Likely, it is somewhere in-between. In an average of 25 minutes per game, he is averaging 8.5 points and 1.5 assists, but his turnover numbers are up a full turnover from last season, a disheartening sign for a freshman who was so strong in holding on to the ball. He shoots 41% from three (16-for-39) and 45.7% overall. He is a strong free throw shooter at 77.8% (21-for-27) but, interestingly, that is all over just six games. The other seven he has not taken a single shot from the line. The key is consistency, if he can find a solid level, he will be a piece to watch in the future.
With the injury of freshman point guard Rob Phinisee, Miller has turned to Devonte Green to run the point for his side. A 6'3" junior, Green missed four games earlier this season due to a thigh injury, but Green has returned and seen a massive uptick in performance after Phinisee's injury. In the three most recent games, including two starts and one where he saw the lion's share of minutes, Green is averaging 13.3 points and 4.7 assists, along with 5.3 rebounds on 37.5% shooting in 32.3 minutes per game. Three of his four highest scoring performances of the season have come in the last three games, including nineteen against Central Arkansas. Over the full season, his averages are a bit lower. He is averaging 8.1 points, 3.6 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game with an average of 23.8 minutes per game as well. His three-point percentage is at a career-low at Indiana at just 33.3%, but it is improved to just a shade under 39% over the last three games. Green's ability to fill in at point is key for this team in sustaining its early-season momentum.
Bench Rundown:
While Archie Miller is quite situational in using his bench, and only one man came off the bench to put in double-digit minutes against Illinois, we are incredibly likely to see at least four men appear in the game.
The first is the man that put in 24 minute against the Fighting Illini, senior Zach McRoberts. McRoberts is coming off an injury that sidelined him for five games earlier this season, the same span as Green. A former walk-on transfer from Vermont, and current captain, the 6'6" guard is the textbook definition of what you'd expect when an announcer calls someone "scrappy" on the court. A very good defender for the Hoosiers, McRoberts has taken just ten shots this season in 152 minutes played, including two starts. All eleven of his points came in the first three games of the season, since then he is zero-for-six. Expect him on the court to give energy and quality defensive minutes and smart play (for all his time on the court, he has just three turnovers, including none in his last four).
The next man off the bench is Evan Fitzner, a grad transfer from Saint Mary's for the season. Standing 6'10", he is the big man off the bench who is just one of four players to have appeared in all fourteen games this season. Fitzner is averaging 4.9 points and 3.1 rebounds in 14.4 minutes per game and is shooting a career-high 51.1%. He offers important size off the bench, which we will surely see if Jon Teske gets going offensively against the pack-line defense. He is also 43.5% from three (10-for-23) and gives an added dimension to the team with that when needed.
Damezi Anderson is the other freshman who sees minutes for Miller's side. Anderson was forced into early season action during the Hoosiers' injury troubles, and over the first five games of the season he logged an average of 19.6 minutes per game and 45% shooting. Since then, he suffered an injury of his own and is back to more of a 'project' status for Indiana. As he develops, he is more of a shooter off the bench (7-for-21 for 33.3%) while his game rounds itself out. These minutes in his freshman season could result in a very good four-year collegiate player in Anderson as he develops over the course of the season and offseason.
Finally, we have De'Ron Davis to round out the side. Davis is a player who suffered a season-ending injury as a sophomore last season after a hot start, then trail off. The 6'10" junior is back, though, and while he's seeing much less of the court now than last season, he still offers experience and skill. He's averaging almost 65% from the field and is able to play 15-20 minutes if needed. He is currently averaging 11.2 minutes and 4.8 points per game. If Teske is too physical for Fitzner, perhaps Davis plays extended minutes for Miller's club.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
This game boils down to slowing down the two key figures for Indiana, Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan. Al Durham is the only other player that will play on Sunday to have double-digit scoring performances against a 'power conference' team. If Charles Matthews' length and NBA-level defense can affect Langford, while Ignas Brazdeikis can handle Morgan (or if Jon Teske's size halts his two-point ability) then Michigan puts themselves in a great position to take the ball game. The other strategy is to silence every other supporting cast player, as Michigan did well against Purdue, while slowing the star (Carsen Edwards, or in this case Langford) enough for it to not matter that he got his. Regardless, Michigan will likely leave it up to either the supporting cast to help out their two All-Big Ten caliber players, or tell Langford and Morgan to try and beat them.
On the offensive end, Michigan needs to attack the pack-line defense. This sort of defense allows itself to be shot over, though. The problem, here, is that Indiana's three-point defense is in the top-forty in the country. Likewise, they're in the top-fifty at allowing opponents to get to the line, and their free throw defense is third in the country. Michigan's question is two-fold: how can we spread the floor to get open looks, and how can we get inside the paint if there are none outside? This falls on the guards, namely Zavier Simpson, to dribble-drive and kick to open men in the corners. Jordan Poole has the job of being both a driver and a shooter potentially. I really think the key to this game, though, is Charles Matthews. Matthews can drive and shoot, but he needs to do both well against Indiana's strong defensive alignment in order to give Michigan a good shot at winning. Last year, this game was Poole's coming-out party, with five threes. Against a team that does not shoot a ton of threes, but hits them at a consistent rate, the behind behind the line may be the one to decide who walks out of Ann Arbor 4-0.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Comments
Post a Comment