The Wolverines return to the road for the first time in a month, and like last trip, it's to the state of Illinois. Michigan take on Illinois on Thursday evening on the hunt for a chance to equal the school record 16-0 start to a season. For Illinois, it's a chance to get a massive statement victory for them after an 0-4 start to the conference season coming off four straight losses, and most recently a two-point loss to in-state rival Northwestern.
Illinois -- An Overview:
The Fighting Illini have started the season off 4-11, though things are not all bad. Illinois landed the commitment of Kofi Cockburn, a five-star center in the 2020 recruiting class, to add to their already talented stable of players expected to return. Of course, the future is never guaranteed, and the present is not exactly glimmering. Illinois could certainly have been forgiven for their 2-7 start, including three games in Maui, trips to Notre Dame and Nebraska, Georgetown, and Ohio State in Chicago, but an overtime loss at home to Florida Atlantic along with back-to-back Big Ten losses most recently have put a damper on things. The Illini have lacked any semblance of luck, KenPom measures them to be the second-least lucky team in the NCAA (that's 352nd out of 353, only Mercer is less lucky). For now, they will hope the luck breaks their way back home and they can snatch a conference win away from the current top dog in the Big Ten.
Starting Five:
The main man for Illinois is guard Ayo Dosunmu. The star freshman, he was 32nd in the RSCI Top 100, stands 6'5", though he can also run the point guard role for Brad Underwood. He is averaging just a shade under thirteen points and just under three assists, do go along with 4.5 rebounds per game. He is shooting 39% from three (23-for-59) and 42.3% as a whole. There is a ton to like about Dosunmu as a whole. While not a hyper-athletic guard, he is incredibly crafty and changes speeds well. His defense is solid as a whole and I like his athletic ability enough to cover quicker and bigger players on offense as well. My favorite aspect of his game is his dribble-drive movements to the rim, his euro-step and jumpers off the dribble are dangerous aspects to the game. His level of play varies in terms of consistency, and he and his back-court mate Trent Frazier (more on him later) never seem to have coinciding strong performances. His last three games, though, have seen him average 19.7 points per game and 37.3 minutes, along with 14.7 attempts. He is taking a bigger role as of late in the offense and that is key for their development as a whole.
The other man in the back court is Trent Frazier. At 6'1", Frazier is shorter, but he is lightning-quick. He led the Big Ten freshmen in scoring, assisting, and steals, and he has improved in all three categories as a sophomore. He is currently averaging 14.9 points, 3.2 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, those steal numbers being second in the conference. Additionally, while his two-point field goal percentage is down (from 46.5% to just under 43%), his three-point percentage has gone from 34.7% to just a touch under 40% (37-for-93). His makes are fifth in the Big Ten, his attempts from long-range fourth, he is making great progress as a sophomore. That said, as mentioned when discussing Dosunmu, his last three games have seen him average just 8.7 points and 3.3 assists per game. He does get into foul trouble with some regularity, but I think for this Illini team to right the ship, they need Dosunmu and Frazier to click on the court. The pair have scored over fifteen points on the same game just once this season, in Maui against Xavier, and since December the two have scored in double-digits in the same game just once, against Indiana where Frazier had just eleven on four-for-thirteen shooting. Both players are impressive on their own, but if they can start to click, that would be vital for Underwood and co.'s luck to turn around.
Adding some veteran leadership to a younger team is senior forward Aaron Jordan. At 6'5", Jordan was a very important role player on the Illinois team last season, but with the massive roster upheaval, Jordan has become a more important player this season. One of just two players that has started all fifteen games of the season, he is averaging 9.5 points and just under five rebounds a game, while improving nearly a full assist to his numbers. The problem is that Jordan's shooting percentages have taken a hit as he is shooting, on average, 2.5 more attempts per game. His overall percentage is down from 46.7% to 38.8%, largely due to his twos dropping from 47.1% to 33.3%. The senior is coming off his worst game of the season, having played fifteen minutes logging a block and two turnovers, and that is all. No points, no rebounds, no assists, not even a foul. Since December, the start of Big Ten play, he has struggled. After a season-high 23-point outing at Notre Dame, over the next eight he shot just 32.1%, and 31% from three, while averaging 7.3 points per game. The drop-off in production is a worry, but as a senior it is up to the coaching staff to trust Jordan to return to form. But with a likely match-up with Charles Matthews on deck, whether it is imminent is yet to be seen.
The third key young player in the starting five is freshman Giorgi Bezhanishvili. Standing 6'9" and having played high school basketball in New Jersey, by way of Georgia (the Eastern European nation, not the state), the forward has had an outbreak to become the third double-digit scorer on this team. Averaging 10.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, along with 58.8% from twos. He has been one of the more pleasant surprises for Illinois, he's the only other player to have started all fifteen games and, like Jordan, his top performance this season was 22 points on eight-for-fifteen shooting in South Bend. That said, he is not a serious threat from three as he's just 19.2% (5-for-26), meaning while Jon Teske needs to keep an eye on the three, it is not something he needs to be supremely alert for. I'm looking for Teske to make this a more physical battle down low and return to a more early-season form in terms of interior defense.
The fifth man in the starting five is 6'6" forward Kipper Nichols. The junior started the season as a starter before dropping to the bench, but he has been in the starting line-up for eleven of the Illini's fifteen games. Nichols is a wild card in the line-up for Illinois. With performances last season ranging from 31 points in the Big Ten Tournament against Iowa and 27 against Michigan State with five threes in each, to a fifteen minute one assist, one rebound, zero point game against Wisconsin, his season this year has been about equally odd. With eighteen points against Ohio State, along with under five points in six different games, he is averaging 8.5 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. The key problems, though, are his three-point percentage is just 22.7%, down from a solid sophomore year clip of 37.8%. Additionally, and perhaps more of a worry, his free-throw percentage has dropped from 86.2% to 66.7%, despite an increase in two-point percentage from 47.2% to 56.9%. Consistency is the number one key for the returning forward. Achieving that is important for his season's progression.
Bench Rundown:
The sixth man off the bench for Brad Underwood is generally sophomore Da'Monte Williams. Standing at 6'3", he nearly redshirted last season coming off a torn ACL as a senior in high school, but, as Underwood explained to Blue Ribbon, "he still provided a high IQ and instincts that required him to be in the rotation." He is not a stat-stuffer, averaging 4.7 points and 3.4 rebounds (which is, indeed, impressive for a guard), but he does well to play within himself. He shoots just 33.3%, but is taking just 3.6 attempts per game, so this does not hurt his team too seriously. He hit double-figures in scoring for the third time this season against Northwestern with ten points on eight-for-ten shooting from the free throw line; where he is 75%. Williams seems to be like the guy to put Jordan Poole on when Williams is in the game, especially if he spells any of the three guards. That would allow Charles Matthews to use his length to frustrate Ayo Dosunmu and Zavier Simpson to take on Trent Frazier.
Also off the bench and into the rotation is junior Andres Feliz. A junior college transfer out of Northwest Florida State, he was a first-team NJCAA All-American and is averaging over twenty minutes per game this season. A solid bring-in by the Illinois staff this season, Feliz is a 6'2" 'veteran' for the young backcourt despite being new to the program. Feliz is averaging 6.8 points and 2.3 assists per game on 45.6% shooting (30% -- six-for-twenty -- from three). He has seen spot starts in games (four starts this season) and in his most recent, he exploded for nineteen against UNLV. Where he shines is in the arc, where he is 50%. I will watch for him to try and take Simpson off the dribble, whether that will be successful or not is going to be a different story.
Grad transfer Adonis De La Rosa has moved from Kent State to spend his final season in Illinois. Standing 7'0", De La Rosa offers serious size off the bench. De La Rosa is coming off his best game of the season, a twelve point outing on four-for-six shooting in fourteen minutes. He averaged 11.8 points and 7.6 rebounds last season, and while an ACL injury hindered his late-season and early contributions for Illinois, he is showing signs of returning to form. His rebounding is a proven commodity and as his minutes increase, he offers a bigger presence for Illinois against Jon Teske if so choose to use him.
One final man likely to see action off the bench is 6'5" freshman Alan Griffin. A guard off the bench, he was a late recruit for Illinois, but Illinois was able to secure his recruitment. Griffin has seen action in all but two games this season, but has been in all four Big Ten games despite averaging just eight minutes per game. He is shooting just under 37% (14-for-38) with three points per game. He has appeared for double-digit minutes six times this season, but Illinois like his shooting ability in the future.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
Illinois' luck and consistency simply are non-existent this season. They are a talented bunch of players, but when just two or maybe three players play to their best, it is tough to get wins a good Big Ten, or in a tough non-conference. For Michigan, the key to me will be taking advantage of any defensive match-ups that they may like. For me, that would seem to be whenever Da'Monte Williams is in the game. While Jordan Poole has improved greatly on defense, I really like Charles Matthews' length to frustrate Ayo Dosunmu. Likewise, I think Trent Frazier is quick, but not quick enough to consistently beat Zavier Simpson to the rim. On the inside, if Jon Teske can play strong against Illinois' own seven-footer off the bench, or their more undersized forward/center hybrid, that opens up much more for the guards in the offense. Finally, Ignas Brazdeikis needs to limit Kipper Nichols' open looks while trying to get back in form on offense. This is an Illinois team coming off four straight losses and a demoralizing two-game Big Ten road trip. Despite their record, this is a dangerous game if you decide to overlook the Fighting Illini and Brad Underwood sides' ability to get hot on offense while playing trapping defenses.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Illinois -- An Overview:
The Fighting Illini have started the season off 4-11, though things are not all bad. Illinois landed the commitment of Kofi Cockburn, a five-star center in the 2020 recruiting class, to add to their already talented stable of players expected to return. Of course, the future is never guaranteed, and the present is not exactly glimmering. Illinois could certainly have been forgiven for their 2-7 start, including three games in Maui, trips to Notre Dame and Nebraska, Georgetown, and Ohio State in Chicago, but an overtime loss at home to Florida Atlantic along with back-to-back Big Ten losses most recently have put a damper on things. The Illini have lacked any semblance of luck, KenPom measures them to be the second-least lucky team in the NCAA (that's 352nd out of 353, only Mercer is less lucky). For now, they will hope the luck breaks their way back home and they can snatch a conference win away from the current top dog in the Big Ten.
Starting Five:
The main man for Illinois is guard Ayo Dosunmu. The star freshman, he was 32nd in the RSCI Top 100, stands 6'5", though he can also run the point guard role for Brad Underwood. He is averaging just a shade under thirteen points and just under three assists, do go along with 4.5 rebounds per game. He is shooting 39% from three (23-for-59) and 42.3% as a whole. There is a ton to like about Dosunmu as a whole. While not a hyper-athletic guard, he is incredibly crafty and changes speeds well. His defense is solid as a whole and I like his athletic ability enough to cover quicker and bigger players on offense as well. My favorite aspect of his game is his dribble-drive movements to the rim, his euro-step and jumpers off the dribble are dangerous aspects to the game. His level of play varies in terms of consistency, and he and his back-court mate Trent Frazier (more on him later) never seem to have coinciding strong performances. His last three games, though, have seen him average 19.7 points per game and 37.3 minutes, along with 14.7 attempts. He is taking a bigger role as of late in the offense and that is key for their development as a whole.
The other man in the back court is Trent Frazier. At 6'1", Frazier is shorter, but he is lightning-quick. He led the Big Ten freshmen in scoring, assisting, and steals, and he has improved in all three categories as a sophomore. He is currently averaging 14.9 points, 3.2 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, those steal numbers being second in the conference. Additionally, while his two-point field goal percentage is down (from 46.5% to just under 43%), his three-point percentage has gone from 34.7% to just a touch under 40% (37-for-93). His makes are fifth in the Big Ten, his attempts from long-range fourth, he is making great progress as a sophomore. That said, as mentioned when discussing Dosunmu, his last three games have seen him average just 8.7 points and 3.3 assists per game. He does get into foul trouble with some regularity, but I think for this Illini team to right the ship, they need Dosunmu and Frazier to click on the court. The pair have scored over fifteen points on the same game just once this season, in Maui against Xavier, and since December the two have scored in double-digits in the same game just once, against Indiana where Frazier had just eleven on four-for-thirteen shooting. Both players are impressive on their own, but if they can start to click, that would be vital for Underwood and co.'s luck to turn around.
Adding some veteran leadership to a younger team is senior forward Aaron Jordan. At 6'5", Jordan was a very important role player on the Illinois team last season, but with the massive roster upheaval, Jordan has become a more important player this season. One of just two players that has started all fifteen games of the season, he is averaging 9.5 points and just under five rebounds a game, while improving nearly a full assist to his numbers. The problem is that Jordan's shooting percentages have taken a hit as he is shooting, on average, 2.5 more attempts per game. His overall percentage is down from 46.7% to 38.8%, largely due to his twos dropping from 47.1% to 33.3%. The senior is coming off his worst game of the season, having played fifteen minutes logging a block and two turnovers, and that is all. No points, no rebounds, no assists, not even a foul. Since December, the start of Big Ten play, he has struggled. After a season-high 23-point outing at Notre Dame, over the next eight he shot just 32.1%, and 31% from three, while averaging 7.3 points per game. The drop-off in production is a worry, but as a senior it is up to the coaching staff to trust Jordan to return to form. But with a likely match-up with Charles Matthews on deck, whether it is imminent is yet to be seen.
The third key young player in the starting five is freshman Giorgi Bezhanishvili. Standing 6'9" and having played high school basketball in New Jersey, by way of Georgia (the Eastern European nation, not the state), the forward has had an outbreak to become the third double-digit scorer on this team. Averaging 10.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, along with 58.8% from twos. He has been one of the more pleasant surprises for Illinois, he's the only other player to have started all fifteen games and, like Jordan, his top performance this season was 22 points on eight-for-fifteen shooting in South Bend. That said, he is not a serious threat from three as he's just 19.2% (5-for-26), meaning while Jon Teske needs to keep an eye on the three, it is not something he needs to be supremely alert for. I'm looking for Teske to make this a more physical battle down low and return to a more early-season form in terms of interior defense.
The fifth man in the starting five is 6'6" forward Kipper Nichols. The junior started the season as a starter before dropping to the bench, but he has been in the starting line-up for eleven of the Illini's fifteen games. Nichols is a wild card in the line-up for Illinois. With performances last season ranging from 31 points in the Big Ten Tournament against Iowa and 27 against Michigan State with five threes in each, to a fifteen minute one assist, one rebound, zero point game against Wisconsin, his season this year has been about equally odd. With eighteen points against Ohio State, along with under five points in six different games, he is averaging 8.5 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. The key problems, though, are his three-point percentage is just 22.7%, down from a solid sophomore year clip of 37.8%. Additionally, and perhaps more of a worry, his free-throw percentage has dropped from 86.2% to 66.7%, despite an increase in two-point percentage from 47.2% to 56.9%. Consistency is the number one key for the returning forward. Achieving that is important for his season's progression.
Bench Rundown:
The sixth man off the bench for Brad Underwood is generally sophomore Da'Monte Williams. Standing at 6'3", he nearly redshirted last season coming off a torn ACL as a senior in high school, but, as Underwood explained to Blue Ribbon, "he still provided a high IQ and instincts that required him to be in the rotation." He is not a stat-stuffer, averaging 4.7 points and 3.4 rebounds (which is, indeed, impressive for a guard), but he does well to play within himself. He shoots just 33.3%, but is taking just 3.6 attempts per game, so this does not hurt his team too seriously. He hit double-figures in scoring for the third time this season against Northwestern with ten points on eight-for-ten shooting from the free throw line; where he is 75%. Williams seems to be like the guy to put Jordan Poole on when Williams is in the game, especially if he spells any of the three guards. That would allow Charles Matthews to use his length to frustrate Ayo Dosunmu and Zavier Simpson to take on Trent Frazier.
Also off the bench and into the rotation is junior Andres Feliz. A junior college transfer out of Northwest Florida State, he was a first-team NJCAA All-American and is averaging over twenty minutes per game this season. A solid bring-in by the Illinois staff this season, Feliz is a 6'2" 'veteran' for the young backcourt despite being new to the program. Feliz is averaging 6.8 points and 2.3 assists per game on 45.6% shooting (30% -- six-for-twenty -- from three). He has seen spot starts in games (four starts this season) and in his most recent, he exploded for nineteen against UNLV. Where he shines is in the arc, where he is 50%. I will watch for him to try and take Simpson off the dribble, whether that will be successful or not is going to be a different story.
Grad transfer Adonis De La Rosa has moved from Kent State to spend his final season in Illinois. Standing 7'0", De La Rosa offers serious size off the bench. De La Rosa is coming off his best game of the season, a twelve point outing on four-for-six shooting in fourteen minutes. He averaged 11.8 points and 7.6 rebounds last season, and while an ACL injury hindered his late-season and early contributions for Illinois, he is showing signs of returning to form. His rebounding is a proven commodity and as his minutes increase, he offers a bigger presence for Illinois against Jon Teske if so choose to use him.
One final man likely to see action off the bench is 6'5" freshman Alan Griffin. A guard off the bench, he was a late recruit for Illinois, but Illinois was able to secure his recruitment. Griffin has seen action in all but two games this season, but has been in all four Big Ten games despite averaging just eight minutes per game. He is shooting just under 37% (14-for-38) with three points per game. He has appeared for double-digit minutes six times this season, but Illinois like his shooting ability in the future.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
Illinois' luck and consistency simply are non-existent this season. They are a talented bunch of players, but when just two or maybe three players play to their best, it is tough to get wins a good Big Ten, or in a tough non-conference. For Michigan, the key to me will be taking advantage of any defensive match-ups that they may like. For me, that would seem to be whenever Da'Monte Williams is in the game. While Jordan Poole has improved greatly on defense, I really like Charles Matthews' length to frustrate Ayo Dosunmu. Likewise, I think Trent Frazier is quick, but not quick enough to consistently beat Zavier Simpson to the rim. On the inside, if Jon Teske can play strong against Illinois' own seven-footer off the bench, or their more undersized forward/center hybrid, that opens up much more for the guards in the offense. Finally, Ignas Brazdeikis needs to limit Kipper Nichols' open looks while trying to get back in form on offense. This is an Illinois team coming off four straight losses and a demoralizing two-game Big Ten road trip. Despite their record, this is a dangerous game if you decide to overlook the Fighting Illini and Brad Underwood sides' ability to get hot on offense while playing trapping defenses.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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