Coming off a scare against Western Michigan amidst studying for finals, Michigan is coming out of finals season and into winter break with renewed spirits. Standing in their way is Air Force, themselves coming off a two-week spurt without a game played. It's a time of the year where the days are shorter, the nights longer, but Michigan hope to stave off the winter blues with a win at home.
Air Force -- An Overview:
The Falcons were predicted tenth out of eleven teams in the Mountain West ahead of this season coming off a 12-19 season and ninth place finish. They've lost three of six key minute-getters from last season, and, of course, with all the strings attached to any service academy, it's never easy to replace them considering the physical requirements that must be met. Still, Air Force, at 4-6, are on the hunt for their first over-.500 season since an 18-14 2012-13 season. With a weak Mountain West, they are hoping to make up ground in conference play. They have only taken on Colorado in terms of power-conference foes, and even despite home-court advantage they suffered a heavy loss to them on the road. Outside of a neutral-site victory against South Dakota in the Bahamas, all three of their wins have been at home. Trips to Texas State and Pacific have wielded losses. Michigan hope to dole another to their Falcon foes.
Starting Five:
Despite the losses, Air Force rely on two important forwards to carry the load for them. First and foremost, last season's leading scorer and a co-captain this season, 6'7" forward Lavelle Scottie. Scottie, a junior, averaged 12.2 points per game last season along with 4.4 rebounds. That has been followed up with a similarly strong start to this season for Scottie with 11.5 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. He led the team in made three-pointers last season as well, with 37 (on 35.2% shooting) but is just nine-for-thirty right now, good for 30% from deep. He's also struggled with turnovers this season as he's averaging nearly four per game. He has made great strides inside the arc upping his two-point percentage a full 12% since last season, despite averaging about an attempt less from two per game. You know what you are getting when it comes to Scottie: a player who is stronger inside than last season, that really leads his side well, is a fair bit inconsistent from three, and has seen some free-throw line struggles this season (he's shooting 55.6%).
Ryan Swan is another 6'7" junior forward that is playing a key role for the Falcons this season. If Scottie has maintained a similar level as last season, Swan has taken a large one forward. He leads the team in scoring averaging an even twelve points along with 5.6 rebounds per game. His leap forward has come with a seriously impressive 74.4% from two, to go with 36.7% from three (eleven-for-thirty). He set a career-high in scoring with 23 points at Pacific as well, but also has run into some foul trouble as of late. He fouled out against Army in just nineteen minutes of play. Still, Swan is on pace to easily eclipse his shots taken last season and, with about a 44% mark from three last season, he has shown the ability to do so for a couple of seasons. As for the match-ups, Swan and Scottie really do seem interchangeable. Both are solid from the perimeter, both tough inside, both can rebound the ball well.
While Air Force has seemed to find a starting line-up they like, running the same one for two games in a row now, one man has started all ten games for them. That is junior guard Sid Tomes. The 6'4" Minnesota native is averaging the second most minutes played per game on the team and provides more leadership in the backcourt. Tomes has seen his role increase to the tune of averaging ten more minutes per game this season than last. He's averaging seven points and 2.8 assists per game, an assist total that leads the team. He's the team's resident three-point specialist as well, having made and taken the most on the team, but these numbers are a bit deceiving. He is just under 29% from three (13-for-45) on the season which drags his total FG% to a shade under 35%. Pilipovich liked that Tomes "slimmed down and muscled up" (he weighs 200 pounds currently, building more muscle from the 200 pound frame he had last season) but he would like to reward his coach's faith with continued improvement shooting the ball.
He dealt with injuries in the first three games, but Caleb Morris has started each of the last two games, his first two starts of the season. Mirroring the similarities of Scottie and Swan, Morris, like Tomes, is a 6'4" junior guard. Morris has seen an increased inclusion in the offense with a 7.4 points per game average on 46.2% shooting. From three he is 10-for-23, which is a very strong 43.5% while from two he is eight-for-sixteen. He can do a little bit of everything on offense: shoot the three, shoot a mid-range jumper, and drive to the rim well, but the fact that he is one of the lesser options on the team behind Scottie or Swan can allow him to hide on opponent's scouting reports. Perhaps that caught teams off guard in his last four games. After an eight-minute cameo against Missouri State, going three-for-three from three, he has since been key to Air Force. Over the last three games, his stats include 31 minutes per game, 13.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 11.3 shots per game on 41.2% shooting. No one is averaging more minutes, and only Scottie is averaging more points, than Morris over these last three contests. Morris will certainly expect to see attention from the Michigan defense on Saturday.
Rounding out the starting five is a lone senior on this Air Force team, fellow co-captain Pervis Louder. Another 6'4" guard, Louder struggled with injuries last season that also hindered him in the summer, but Louder is getting back to speed. Louder, like his previous season, has struggled from behind the arc. This year he is just two-for-thirteen (15.4%) from long range, both coming in the win against Denver two games ago. Last year he was 21.6%. He would surely like to get closer to his sophomore year mark, almost 39%, but his success inside the arc, going 22-for-33, allows him to be dangerous in other aspects of the game. That strong shot selection inside the arc has carried him to a career-high 52.2% field-goal percentage, but he is averaging just 6.1 points per game, along with a solid 3.2 rebounds. His senior leadership and captaincy, along with defensive abilities, make him very important to have on court, though, and his offensive game is continuing to make strides. He does not need to be constantly shooting, but development of an offensive game that will make defenses mark him would be important for this team.
Bench Rundown:
Delegated from starter to sixth man in the latest starter shake-up, Keaton Van Solen is the man to watch out for. Standing at 6'7" and just a sophomore, Van Solen is listed as a guard, but can play just about anywhere. He was called a "key component of what we want to do" by Dave Pilipovich in the Blue Ribbon preseason guide, and while it has not been a drastic leap in ability, he has continued to improve as a player. Van Solen is averaging 4.6 points and 3.8 rebounds per game, both improvements from last season. On the same amount of averaged attempts per game (3.2) he is improved from 41.1% to 56.3% this season. He has taken just four threes this season, making one, but a 60.7% clip inside the perimeter allows him to pick and choose his spots from downtown. His ability is going to be very important for this team not just this season, but in the future.
With three starts this season, freshman A.J. Walker is yet another key rotational piece for this squad. A 6'2" guard, Walker arrives from San Antonio and currently also logs over twenty minutes per game on average. Averaging seven points, 1.9 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game, Walker puts in good minutes not only on the offensive end but also as a defender as well. His three-point shot is looking very good to start the season, he is, like Morris, 10-for-23 this season and while his two-point percentage is just 32.4%, the shot from deep falling is always a good sign for a freshman just starting his career. His high water mark this season was a six-for-eight performance from three against Missouri State that included twenty points. If you wish to be pessimistic, pointing out that outside of that game he is just four-for-fifteen (26.7%) from deep is a valid concern. Still, six threes highlights just how quick he can heat up from three. When in the game, the need to track him outside the arc will be there.
Chris Joyce is yet another guard, standing at 6'5", that plays into the rotation of Air Force and coach Dave Pilipovich. Joyce, a sophomore, is versatile, averaging 2.9 shots per game from both inside and outside the arc. He played just ten games last season but has worked his way into the rotation. A good athlete with a nice outside shot, he has shown a bit more prowess inside the arc (going 16-for-29 -- 55.2% this season) than outside (31% this season, but just 27.8% over his career -- 10-for-36). He's a good athlete and one that will continue to develop as a player. His average of 18.7 minutes per game is huge for his development as a player and with a 7.6 point per game average, he has been doing well to showcase skills as a breakout sophomore. Evening out his three-point stroke will be key.
While Van Solen, Walker, and Joyce all see about similar amounts of time on the court, Air Force goes four deep off the bench with Ameka Akaya. Akaya started four games thus far, but the 6'6" sophomore forward has seen about his season-average in minutes over the past five games (14.6 over the last five vs. 14.2 over the season). Akaya is athletic and strong, with good scoring ability both inside and outside. He's making two-thirds of his shots this season, including seven-for-twelve from three on the season, going along with just under six points per game. Building him into games and getting him accustomed to play, having just played in seven games all of his freshman year, seems to be key. I would expect him to have a very nice junior year after this strong sophomore campaign.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
Michigan cannot expect to sleepwalk through this game and pull away with a win. That did not happen with Western Michigan, and I would not expect that to happen with this Air Force team. The cliche of service academy teams is that they are "disciplined" and tough to beat because of it. In reality, though, they are loose with the ball with 158 turnovers so far this season. With limited size, they could attempt to pressure or press Michigan, but they also rarely force turnovers, having forced just 119 this season (310th in the country, as of the morning of December 18th). The key, to me, is Michigan's defense with the size advantage. Jon Teske will need to guard somone. Ryan Swan can step out, so can Lavelle Scottie. Their two-point percentage is 57.5% as a team, that's a top-thirty mark in the country. With no one over 6'7" seeing the court on any regular basis, it will have to be seen if that mark can remain achievable for the Falcons. If there were ever a game for Michigan to experiment with a zone, this may be it. Having Jon Teske around to dissuade anyone from driving while letting Zavier Simpson be active in snuffing out mid-range twos from the top of the key, and Charles Matthews on the baselines, would create a 2-3 Zone match-up nightmare for a team whose three-point shooting is a grab bag. If zone is not an option, this could be a great game for Brandon Johns to see action if John Beilein feels a result is well in hand. Or we could simply see more Isaiah Livers at the five. Regardless, if Michigan play their game, they should take this one without serious trouble. If it's a slog, Air Force could make them pay.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Air Force -- An Overview:
The Falcons were predicted tenth out of eleven teams in the Mountain West ahead of this season coming off a 12-19 season and ninth place finish. They've lost three of six key minute-getters from last season, and, of course, with all the strings attached to any service academy, it's never easy to replace them considering the physical requirements that must be met. Still, Air Force, at 4-6, are on the hunt for their first over-.500 season since an 18-14 2012-13 season. With a weak Mountain West, they are hoping to make up ground in conference play. They have only taken on Colorado in terms of power-conference foes, and even despite home-court advantage they suffered a heavy loss to them on the road. Outside of a neutral-site victory against South Dakota in the Bahamas, all three of their wins have been at home. Trips to Texas State and Pacific have wielded losses. Michigan hope to dole another to their Falcon foes.
Starting Five:
Despite the losses, Air Force rely on two important forwards to carry the load for them. First and foremost, last season's leading scorer and a co-captain this season, 6'7" forward Lavelle Scottie. Scottie, a junior, averaged 12.2 points per game last season along with 4.4 rebounds. That has been followed up with a similarly strong start to this season for Scottie with 11.5 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. He led the team in made three-pointers last season as well, with 37 (on 35.2% shooting) but is just nine-for-thirty right now, good for 30% from deep. He's also struggled with turnovers this season as he's averaging nearly four per game. He has made great strides inside the arc upping his two-point percentage a full 12% since last season, despite averaging about an attempt less from two per game. You know what you are getting when it comes to Scottie: a player who is stronger inside than last season, that really leads his side well, is a fair bit inconsistent from three, and has seen some free-throw line struggles this season (he's shooting 55.6%).
Ryan Swan is another 6'7" junior forward that is playing a key role for the Falcons this season. If Scottie has maintained a similar level as last season, Swan has taken a large one forward. He leads the team in scoring averaging an even twelve points along with 5.6 rebounds per game. His leap forward has come with a seriously impressive 74.4% from two, to go with 36.7% from three (eleven-for-thirty). He set a career-high in scoring with 23 points at Pacific as well, but also has run into some foul trouble as of late. He fouled out against Army in just nineteen minutes of play. Still, Swan is on pace to easily eclipse his shots taken last season and, with about a 44% mark from three last season, he has shown the ability to do so for a couple of seasons. As for the match-ups, Swan and Scottie really do seem interchangeable. Both are solid from the perimeter, both tough inside, both can rebound the ball well.
While Air Force has seemed to find a starting line-up they like, running the same one for two games in a row now, one man has started all ten games for them. That is junior guard Sid Tomes. The 6'4" Minnesota native is averaging the second most minutes played per game on the team and provides more leadership in the backcourt. Tomes has seen his role increase to the tune of averaging ten more minutes per game this season than last. He's averaging seven points and 2.8 assists per game, an assist total that leads the team. He's the team's resident three-point specialist as well, having made and taken the most on the team, but these numbers are a bit deceiving. He is just under 29% from three (13-for-45) on the season which drags his total FG% to a shade under 35%. Pilipovich liked that Tomes "slimmed down and muscled up" (he weighs 200 pounds currently, building more muscle from the 200 pound frame he had last season) but he would like to reward his coach's faith with continued improvement shooting the ball.
He dealt with injuries in the first three games, but Caleb Morris has started each of the last two games, his first two starts of the season. Mirroring the similarities of Scottie and Swan, Morris, like Tomes, is a 6'4" junior guard. Morris has seen an increased inclusion in the offense with a 7.4 points per game average on 46.2% shooting. From three he is 10-for-23, which is a very strong 43.5% while from two he is eight-for-sixteen. He can do a little bit of everything on offense: shoot the three, shoot a mid-range jumper, and drive to the rim well, but the fact that he is one of the lesser options on the team behind Scottie or Swan can allow him to hide on opponent's scouting reports. Perhaps that caught teams off guard in his last four games. After an eight-minute cameo against Missouri State, going three-for-three from three, he has since been key to Air Force. Over the last three games, his stats include 31 minutes per game, 13.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 11.3 shots per game on 41.2% shooting. No one is averaging more minutes, and only Scottie is averaging more points, than Morris over these last three contests. Morris will certainly expect to see attention from the Michigan defense on Saturday.
Rounding out the starting five is a lone senior on this Air Force team, fellow co-captain Pervis Louder. Another 6'4" guard, Louder struggled with injuries last season that also hindered him in the summer, but Louder is getting back to speed. Louder, like his previous season, has struggled from behind the arc. This year he is just two-for-thirteen (15.4%) from long range, both coming in the win against Denver two games ago. Last year he was 21.6%. He would surely like to get closer to his sophomore year mark, almost 39%, but his success inside the arc, going 22-for-33, allows him to be dangerous in other aspects of the game. That strong shot selection inside the arc has carried him to a career-high 52.2% field-goal percentage, but he is averaging just 6.1 points per game, along with a solid 3.2 rebounds. His senior leadership and captaincy, along with defensive abilities, make him very important to have on court, though, and his offensive game is continuing to make strides. He does not need to be constantly shooting, but development of an offensive game that will make defenses mark him would be important for this team.
Bench Rundown:
Delegated from starter to sixth man in the latest starter shake-up, Keaton Van Solen is the man to watch out for. Standing at 6'7" and just a sophomore, Van Solen is listed as a guard, but can play just about anywhere. He was called a "key component of what we want to do" by Dave Pilipovich in the Blue Ribbon preseason guide, and while it has not been a drastic leap in ability, he has continued to improve as a player. Van Solen is averaging 4.6 points and 3.8 rebounds per game, both improvements from last season. On the same amount of averaged attempts per game (3.2) he is improved from 41.1% to 56.3% this season. He has taken just four threes this season, making one, but a 60.7% clip inside the perimeter allows him to pick and choose his spots from downtown. His ability is going to be very important for this team not just this season, but in the future.
With three starts this season, freshman A.J. Walker is yet another key rotational piece for this squad. A 6'2" guard, Walker arrives from San Antonio and currently also logs over twenty minutes per game on average. Averaging seven points, 1.9 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game, Walker puts in good minutes not only on the offensive end but also as a defender as well. His three-point shot is looking very good to start the season, he is, like Morris, 10-for-23 this season and while his two-point percentage is just 32.4%, the shot from deep falling is always a good sign for a freshman just starting his career. His high water mark this season was a six-for-eight performance from three against Missouri State that included twenty points. If you wish to be pessimistic, pointing out that outside of that game he is just four-for-fifteen (26.7%) from deep is a valid concern. Still, six threes highlights just how quick he can heat up from three. When in the game, the need to track him outside the arc will be there.
Chris Joyce is yet another guard, standing at 6'5", that plays into the rotation of Air Force and coach Dave Pilipovich. Joyce, a sophomore, is versatile, averaging 2.9 shots per game from both inside and outside the arc. He played just ten games last season but has worked his way into the rotation. A good athlete with a nice outside shot, he has shown a bit more prowess inside the arc (going 16-for-29 -- 55.2% this season) than outside (31% this season, but just 27.8% over his career -- 10-for-36). He's a good athlete and one that will continue to develop as a player. His average of 18.7 minutes per game is huge for his development as a player and with a 7.6 point per game average, he has been doing well to showcase skills as a breakout sophomore. Evening out his three-point stroke will be key.
While Van Solen, Walker, and Joyce all see about similar amounts of time on the court, Air Force goes four deep off the bench with Ameka Akaya. Akaya started four games thus far, but the 6'6" sophomore forward has seen about his season-average in minutes over the past five games (14.6 over the last five vs. 14.2 over the season). Akaya is athletic and strong, with good scoring ability both inside and outside. He's making two-thirds of his shots this season, including seven-for-twelve from three on the season, going along with just under six points per game. Building him into games and getting him accustomed to play, having just played in seven games all of his freshman year, seems to be key. I would expect him to have a very nice junior year after this strong sophomore campaign.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
Michigan cannot expect to sleepwalk through this game and pull away with a win. That did not happen with Western Michigan, and I would not expect that to happen with this Air Force team. The cliche of service academy teams is that they are "disciplined" and tough to beat because of it. In reality, though, they are loose with the ball with 158 turnovers so far this season. With limited size, they could attempt to pressure or press Michigan, but they also rarely force turnovers, having forced just 119 this season (310th in the country, as of the morning of December 18th). The key, to me, is Michigan's defense with the size advantage. Jon Teske will need to guard somone. Ryan Swan can step out, so can Lavelle Scottie. Their two-point percentage is 57.5% as a team, that's a top-thirty mark in the country. With no one over 6'7" seeing the court on any regular basis, it will have to be seen if that mark can remain achievable for the Falcons. If there were ever a game for Michigan to experiment with a zone, this may be it. Having Jon Teske around to dissuade anyone from driving while letting Zavier Simpson be active in snuffing out mid-range twos from the top of the key, and Charles Matthews on the baselines, would create a 2-3 Zone match-up nightmare for a team whose three-point shooting is a grab bag. If zone is not an option, this could be a great game for Brandon Johns to see action if John Beilein feels a result is well in hand. Or we could simply see more Isaiah Livers at the five. Regardless, if Michigan play their game, they should take this one without serious trouble. If it's a slog, Air Force could make them pay.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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