Michigan has just a bit of rest coming off a huge victory over #11 North Carolina before they welcome #19 Purdue into Crisler Center this Saturday at 3:30 for the first of two December conference games. The victory over North Carolina was massive for this team's and the fans' moods, but this game against Purdue is just as big so as to start Big Ten play off with a win.
Purdue -- An Overview:
This is a different Purdue team from last year. Purdue graduate four starters, but return a key one in Carsen Edwards. Purdue have started the year off 5-2, but are 0-2 against power conference teams, two ACC teams have topped them already: Virginia Tech in Charleston, and Florida State on the same evening of the Michigan/North Carolina game in what was a chaotic finish. The game saw controversial calls, Purdue give up a 72-64 lead with four minutes left, and Florida State hit a floater with 5.2 seconds left to win 73-72. After a tough loss on the road, Purdue now has to travel once again just days after in order to start conference play off.
Starting Five:
Any Purdue basketball rundown needs to start with Carsen Edwards. A 6'1" junior, Edwards could have entered the NBA Draft last season. Instead, he returns and, like Luke Maye on North Carolina, Edwards is on just about every First Team All-American list you can find. He was Blue Ribbon's Preseason Player of the Year, and for good reason. Currently, Edwards operates out of the back court as the shooting guard for Purdue and is doing so with great efficiency. Edwards averages 25.1 points per game currently, most in the Big Ten. He's shot the most times out of any player in the conference as well, both in general (133) and from three (71) for an average of 44.4% (39.4% from deep). He's also up a full assist from last year, averaging 4.1 per game this season, but Edwards' percentages are slightly down. Additionally, with so much time with the ball in his hands, he is prone to turning the ball over. He had eight turnovers against Florida State and averages 3.9 per game. That said, he's a dynamic scorer who shoots the ball well and drives to the hoop strong as well. He will be teams' primary target of stopping for the offense for most of the season unless additional multi-faceted help can come. I'm watching Zavier Simpson on him. I think you put your best defender on the other team's best player and watch the match-up. In their last meeting, Michigan (and Simpson) held Edwards to just twelve points on four-for-sixteen shooting and in any meeting, Edwards' highest point total against Michigan was just nineteen. I'm looking to see in that can be managed again on the dynamic scoring guard.
Purdue's number two option is long-range sniper Ryan Cline. Cline, now a senior, is the only man averaging more minutes than Edwards currently (33.3 per game). The 6'6" guard is the only other player in double-figure shots taken by Purdue, as well, but of the near-twelve per game, nine of those are from three, for a solid 44.4% average. Cline is averaging 15.3 points per game and joins Edwards as a player making four threes per game on average. His catch-and-shoot game is top notch and the key for Michigan is going to be to run him off the three-point line. For Cline, though, this year is improving on his overall game so as to make the jump by the start of conference season to be fully well-rounded to help the team. He is off to a strong start and Jordan Poole will have to play tight defense on him around the perimeter, but the pressure is still on him to show that he's more than "just a shooter" this season.
Also in the back court, you will find Nojel Eastern playing point guard. Standing at 6'6", the sophomore tested the NBA Draft waters, but decided to return. Still, Eastern has a lot that appeals to pro scouts, but also certainly a lot to continue to work on. He's a very tough match-up for a lot of teams, especially those who may try to cover him with a smaller guard. He's averaging over double the minutes he did as a freshman and is currently averaging 6.3 points per game. His field goal percentage is an impressive 63.6% as well, a testament to his strong drives to the rim. He finds plenty of shots around the rim and can bully his way past some who try to guard him given the fact that he's built more like a forward than point guard. That said, the two things he needed most to work on, a three-point shot and stabilizing a decent assist-to-turnover ratio, have not come to fruition yet. He's only taken one shot from three this season and the assists-to-turnovers are 1.06-to-1, just barely above the 1-1 ratio from last season. He needs to find footing against tougher defense to succeed at this next level.
Matt Haarms must not be forgotten about, of course. Standing at 7'3", he is perhaps one of the only men this season, if not the only man, that Jon Teske will be looking up at. Haarms is a redshirt sophomore who steps out of the shadow of Isaac Haas and offers a bit of a different game than Purdue's previous dominant big man. Haarms is more of a shooter than Haas is, he's already made more threes (two) than Haas took in his full four years at Purdue (zero). He's averaging two blocks per game over his two years, and eight points per game this season, despite about similar play time as last season. While not an imposing post presence, he is lanky and obviously very big. He's going to need to use that size more in the post, because he's not going to overpower tons of opponents in the post as he stands just 250 pounds. We could see Haarms try and draw Teske out onto the three-point line instead of battling him in the post, where Teske is extremely comfortable. Either way, this will be a fun match-up to watch play out.
Rounding out the starting five is the second forward, Grady Eifert. Also 6'6", Eifert, a senior from Fort Wayne, is no longer a walk-on this season. He has been rewarded with both a scholarship and a starting spot, one that he saw a couple times last season when Vincent Edwards was unavailable. Eifert is shooting an impressive seven-for-nine from two, but is just five-for-sixteen from three. He's a tough player who rebounds well (he's averaging 5.7 per game, more than Haarms) and knows the Purdue system well. He sees the fourth-most minutes on this team, averaging just a minute less than Eastern's amount, and makes them quality contributions. While he does not find the basket a ton, he does well to fit in easily to the offense and play tough defense.
Bench Rundown:
The first man off Matt Painter's bench is impact sixth man Evan Boudreaux. Boudreaux is a 6'8" grad-transfer with the unique ability to get two years eligibility. Boudreaux, officially a redshirt junior, did not play with Dartmouth last season, instead graduating early, committing to Xavier, then jumping over to Purdue once Chris Mack left to Louisville. He is the third Boilermaker averaging double-figure points (11.3 per game) and also leads the team in rebounding with 6.3 per game. When talking about players who do "a bit of everything", Boudreaux might be the perfect player for that description. His best attribute, in my eyes, is his ability to drive so smoothly to the rim. He plays smaller than 6'8" at times in how quick he can get to the rim and finish. He also has a decent three-point stroke, shooting 35.7% currently, and that could be used by him to try and stretch out the Michigan power forwards.
Another key man for Purdue will be redshirt freshman Sasha Stefanovic. Standing at 6'4", Stefanovic, even after a redshirt, still working on his own player development. For now, the Serbian is best served as a three-point specialist. He has taken four times the three-pointers than twos, and he's only made one of his five shots from inside the arc. He's shooting 45% from long-range (nine-for-twenty) and averaging about sixteen minutes already, he seems like a lock to be a starter next season. The least-heralded man from the five-man 2017 recruiting class, he seems sure to be another four-year Purdue shooter.
Eric Hunter, Jr. is the lone true freshman seeing consistent time in rotation, and the young guard is seeing important minutes. Standing at 6'3", he saw a start in the season opener against Fairfield when Matt Haarms was out due to injury, and allowed the Boilermakers to go small. He's the all-time leading scorer in Marion County from Indiana, highlighting his ability to put the ball in the basket. He's averaging just a shade under three points per game thus far, but will want to improve his shooting percentages (30% overall, 25% from three) throughout the season. It's a year of learning for Hunter who will likely play a larger role next season.
The final rotational player for Purdue is yet another redshirt freshman, Aaron Wheeler. The 6'9" forward is athletic and fun to watch. Despite that description from Painter as in Blue Ribbon, Wheeler has shot just four shots inside the arc, making one. The rest of his nineteen tries have been from three, where he's four-for-fifteen. He averages 2.7 points and rebounds per game. The redshirt year allowed him to get stronger, but he remains a fairly lean 200 pounds.
One final man worth watching is true freshman Trevion Williams. Standing 6'9" and weighing 275 pounds, Williams hails from Detroit and was a rebounding machine in high school. He has seen the floor in every game but Virginia Tech, but only sees spot minutes. He hit his per game average (three) against Florida State but in the game prior (Robert Morris) he went four-for-four with nine points in just seven minutes.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
Michigan dropped two of their three meetings against Purdue last season, including the home bout against the Boilermakers, but this is a vastly different Purdue team. Floor spacing is far different for them without multiple shooters on the court and they still don't have that secondary scorer who can score in multiple ways. Ryan Cline is a lights-out shooter, but what will happen in a game where he can be neutralized? Jordan Poole will need to play tight defense on him and force Carsen Edwards to do the lion's share of the work by himself. I do personally like the match-ups in Michigan's favor. Edwards and Simpson is a toss-up, but you cannot allow Edwards to beat you by himself. Instead, I'm looking at the secondary match-ups and liking what they are. Charles Matthews will likely guard Nojel Eastern, which is a match-up that undercuts Eastern's top ability, to drive. I also don't think Matt Haarms has the range from deep to take Jon Teske out to the three-point line consistently. Inside the paint, he's not strong enough to scrap with him underneath as well.
For Purdue, I think the key is exactly the opposite of what I have described are their weaknesses. As mentioned, it's Edwards and Cline who are the main offensive weapons. They need to look for that third man against Michigan to find success. Of course, if Purdue are finding their range and shooting the lights out, that definitely changes things. But when it comes to starters, only two of them having any real consistent three-point shot. Bringing Sasha Stefanovic could help with floor-spacing, though, and he may be the key to the game. If he can get hot off the bench, that could free up Cline as well by forcing Michigan to target one shooter or the other. Really, though, Purdue runs through Edwards. He's scored fewer than twenty points once this season, an inefficient five-for-seventeen, nineteen point game against Robert Morris. If Zavier Simpson can slow him down, that will be essential in Michigan taking their Big Ten opener.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Purdue -- An Overview:
This is a different Purdue team from last year. Purdue graduate four starters, but return a key one in Carsen Edwards. Purdue have started the year off 5-2, but are 0-2 against power conference teams, two ACC teams have topped them already: Virginia Tech in Charleston, and Florida State on the same evening of the Michigan/North Carolina game in what was a chaotic finish. The game saw controversial calls, Purdue give up a 72-64 lead with four minutes left, and Florida State hit a floater with 5.2 seconds left to win 73-72. After a tough loss on the road, Purdue now has to travel once again just days after in order to start conference play off.
Starting Five:
Any Purdue basketball rundown needs to start with Carsen Edwards. A 6'1" junior, Edwards could have entered the NBA Draft last season. Instead, he returns and, like Luke Maye on North Carolina, Edwards is on just about every First Team All-American list you can find. He was Blue Ribbon's Preseason Player of the Year, and for good reason. Currently, Edwards operates out of the back court as the shooting guard for Purdue and is doing so with great efficiency. Edwards averages 25.1 points per game currently, most in the Big Ten. He's shot the most times out of any player in the conference as well, both in general (133) and from three (71) for an average of 44.4% (39.4% from deep). He's also up a full assist from last year, averaging 4.1 per game this season, but Edwards' percentages are slightly down. Additionally, with so much time with the ball in his hands, he is prone to turning the ball over. He had eight turnovers against Florida State and averages 3.9 per game. That said, he's a dynamic scorer who shoots the ball well and drives to the hoop strong as well. He will be teams' primary target of stopping for the offense for most of the season unless additional multi-faceted help can come. I'm watching Zavier Simpson on him. I think you put your best defender on the other team's best player and watch the match-up. In their last meeting, Michigan (and Simpson) held Edwards to just twelve points on four-for-sixteen shooting and in any meeting, Edwards' highest point total against Michigan was just nineteen. I'm looking to see in that can be managed again on the dynamic scoring guard.
Purdue's number two option is long-range sniper Ryan Cline. Cline, now a senior, is the only man averaging more minutes than Edwards currently (33.3 per game). The 6'6" guard is the only other player in double-figure shots taken by Purdue, as well, but of the near-twelve per game, nine of those are from three, for a solid 44.4% average. Cline is averaging 15.3 points per game and joins Edwards as a player making four threes per game on average. His catch-and-shoot game is top notch and the key for Michigan is going to be to run him off the three-point line. For Cline, though, this year is improving on his overall game so as to make the jump by the start of conference season to be fully well-rounded to help the team. He is off to a strong start and Jordan Poole will have to play tight defense on him around the perimeter, but the pressure is still on him to show that he's more than "just a shooter" this season.
Also in the back court, you will find Nojel Eastern playing point guard. Standing at 6'6", the sophomore tested the NBA Draft waters, but decided to return. Still, Eastern has a lot that appeals to pro scouts, but also certainly a lot to continue to work on. He's a very tough match-up for a lot of teams, especially those who may try to cover him with a smaller guard. He's averaging over double the minutes he did as a freshman and is currently averaging 6.3 points per game. His field goal percentage is an impressive 63.6% as well, a testament to his strong drives to the rim. He finds plenty of shots around the rim and can bully his way past some who try to guard him given the fact that he's built more like a forward than point guard. That said, the two things he needed most to work on, a three-point shot and stabilizing a decent assist-to-turnover ratio, have not come to fruition yet. He's only taken one shot from three this season and the assists-to-turnovers are 1.06-to-1, just barely above the 1-1 ratio from last season. He needs to find footing against tougher defense to succeed at this next level.
Matt Haarms must not be forgotten about, of course. Standing at 7'3", he is perhaps one of the only men this season, if not the only man, that Jon Teske will be looking up at. Haarms is a redshirt sophomore who steps out of the shadow of Isaac Haas and offers a bit of a different game than Purdue's previous dominant big man. Haarms is more of a shooter than Haas is, he's already made more threes (two) than Haas took in his full four years at Purdue (zero). He's averaging two blocks per game over his two years, and eight points per game this season, despite about similar play time as last season. While not an imposing post presence, he is lanky and obviously very big. He's going to need to use that size more in the post, because he's not going to overpower tons of opponents in the post as he stands just 250 pounds. We could see Haarms try and draw Teske out onto the three-point line instead of battling him in the post, where Teske is extremely comfortable. Either way, this will be a fun match-up to watch play out.
Rounding out the starting five is the second forward, Grady Eifert. Also 6'6", Eifert, a senior from Fort Wayne, is no longer a walk-on this season. He has been rewarded with both a scholarship and a starting spot, one that he saw a couple times last season when Vincent Edwards was unavailable. Eifert is shooting an impressive seven-for-nine from two, but is just five-for-sixteen from three. He's a tough player who rebounds well (he's averaging 5.7 per game, more than Haarms) and knows the Purdue system well. He sees the fourth-most minutes on this team, averaging just a minute less than Eastern's amount, and makes them quality contributions. While he does not find the basket a ton, he does well to fit in easily to the offense and play tough defense.
Bench Rundown:
The first man off Matt Painter's bench is impact sixth man Evan Boudreaux. Boudreaux is a 6'8" grad-transfer with the unique ability to get two years eligibility. Boudreaux, officially a redshirt junior, did not play with Dartmouth last season, instead graduating early, committing to Xavier, then jumping over to Purdue once Chris Mack left to Louisville. He is the third Boilermaker averaging double-figure points (11.3 per game) and also leads the team in rebounding with 6.3 per game. When talking about players who do "a bit of everything", Boudreaux might be the perfect player for that description. His best attribute, in my eyes, is his ability to drive so smoothly to the rim. He plays smaller than 6'8" at times in how quick he can get to the rim and finish. He also has a decent three-point stroke, shooting 35.7% currently, and that could be used by him to try and stretch out the Michigan power forwards.
Another key man for Purdue will be redshirt freshman Sasha Stefanovic. Standing at 6'4", Stefanovic, even after a redshirt, still working on his own player development. For now, the Serbian is best served as a three-point specialist. He has taken four times the three-pointers than twos, and he's only made one of his five shots from inside the arc. He's shooting 45% from long-range (nine-for-twenty) and averaging about sixteen minutes already, he seems like a lock to be a starter next season. The least-heralded man from the five-man 2017 recruiting class, he seems sure to be another four-year Purdue shooter.
Eric Hunter, Jr. is the lone true freshman seeing consistent time in rotation, and the young guard is seeing important minutes. Standing at 6'3", he saw a start in the season opener against Fairfield when Matt Haarms was out due to injury, and allowed the Boilermakers to go small. He's the all-time leading scorer in Marion County from Indiana, highlighting his ability to put the ball in the basket. He's averaging just a shade under three points per game thus far, but will want to improve his shooting percentages (30% overall, 25% from three) throughout the season. It's a year of learning for Hunter who will likely play a larger role next season.
The final rotational player for Purdue is yet another redshirt freshman, Aaron Wheeler. The 6'9" forward is athletic and fun to watch. Despite that description from Painter as in Blue Ribbon, Wheeler has shot just four shots inside the arc, making one. The rest of his nineteen tries have been from three, where he's four-for-fifteen. He averages 2.7 points and rebounds per game. The redshirt year allowed him to get stronger, but he remains a fairly lean 200 pounds.
One final man worth watching is true freshman Trevion Williams. Standing 6'9" and weighing 275 pounds, Williams hails from Detroit and was a rebounding machine in high school. He has seen the floor in every game but Virginia Tech, but only sees spot minutes. He hit his per game average (three) against Florida State but in the game prior (Robert Morris) he went four-for-four with nine points in just seven minutes.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
Michigan dropped two of their three meetings against Purdue last season, including the home bout against the Boilermakers, but this is a vastly different Purdue team. Floor spacing is far different for them without multiple shooters on the court and they still don't have that secondary scorer who can score in multiple ways. Ryan Cline is a lights-out shooter, but what will happen in a game where he can be neutralized? Jordan Poole will need to play tight defense on him and force Carsen Edwards to do the lion's share of the work by himself. I do personally like the match-ups in Michigan's favor. Edwards and Simpson is a toss-up, but you cannot allow Edwards to beat you by himself. Instead, I'm looking at the secondary match-ups and liking what they are. Charles Matthews will likely guard Nojel Eastern, which is a match-up that undercuts Eastern's top ability, to drive. I also don't think Matt Haarms has the range from deep to take Jon Teske out to the three-point line consistently. Inside the paint, he's not strong enough to scrap with him underneath as well.
For Purdue, I think the key is exactly the opposite of what I have described are their weaknesses. As mentioned, it's Edwards and Cline who are the main offensive weapons. They need to look for that third man against Michigan to find success. Of course, if Purdue are finding their range and shooting the lights out, that definitely changes things. But when it comes to starters, only two of them having any real consistent three-point shot. Bringing Sasha Stefanovic could help with floor-spacing, though, and he may be the key to the game. If he can get hot off the bench, that could free up Cline as well by forcing Michigan to target one shooter or the other. Really, though, Purdue runs through Edwards. He's scored fewer than twenty points once this season, an inefficient five-for-seventeen, nineteen point game against Robert Morris. If Zavier Simpson can slow him down, that will be essential in Michigan taking their Big Ten opener.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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