Fasten your seatbelts, Michigan fans. Wednesday night at 9:30 PM will see a clash of two of the nation's top teams. One high-powered defense in Michigan vs. one of the nation's top offenses in North Carolina. The sides face off in a rematch from the ACC/Big Ten Challenge of last season, but Michigan will hope for a bit of home-cooking from their side and a measure of revenge.
North Carolina -- An Overview:
They may have lost their undefeated record, but UNC has still been incredibly impressive. They're coming off a three-point loss to Texas, but followed that up in Las Vegas with a pounding in the second half of UCLA. They also laid a beatdown on Stanford in Chapel Hill, but struggled yet again this season against Wofford on the road. They're averaging the fifth most points in the NCAA (96.6 per game) and have snared the most rebounds in the NCAA (though stats like this are inflating given they are one of a select few teams with seven games already). Roy Williams leads the team and has been given a different task, with a pair of star freshmen, who we'll cover, set to be one-and-dones. Williams has never once had two freshmen go one-and-done into the NBA Draft and be selected, that may very well change. But if they live up to their potential, it will be worth it for the Tar Heels.
Starting Five:
If you know anything about North Carolina, you know about Luke Maye. Maye was a Third-Team AP All-American last season and has walked into this year as the preseason player of the year selection for the ACC. By most all publications, he is a First-Team All-American choice, including Blue Ribbon, NBC, CBS, and ESPN. The 6'7" senior forward can do a bit of everything: bang it down low in the paint, shoot from deep, rebound, he even does well to pass the ball. Maye's free-throw shooting has gotten drastically better, it's up almost 16.5% from last season, but he has not been as good as the hopes have been. His scoring, rebounding, assists, and three-point shooting are all down from his end-of-season averages from his junior year, and this is with fewer minutes and shots per game as well. As a small-ball center, and with a more balanced line-up, though, this is more to show the balance that this UNC has rather than any sort of poor performance from Maye himself. He's a senior leader for this team, and Jon Teske's going to have his hands full on Wednesday night. The hope will be that he remains out of form from deep and feels forced to challenge Michigan's 7'2" behemoth in the paint, where Teske has been near-unbeatable. You could also throw Ignas Brazdeikis or Isaiah Livers on Maye, but the match-up would figure to depend on personnel and trust in the big man vs. the freshman for MIchigan. Maye's been a bit quieter, let's see if he can shine on a big stage.
Perhaps no one has been bigger for the Tar Heels than 6'9" senior forward/swing-man Cameron Johnson. Johnson was considering Michigan as a grad transfer from Pittsburgh, but Johnson took his two years of eligibility to Chapel Hill. Johnson has been a sniper from three and currently leads the team in points per game with 16.4, to go with his impressive 48.5% clip from three (that's 16-for-33). Elite from the line and from beyond the arc, Johnson is known for the stroke from long range but also gets to the rim well. For my money, he's the most important player on this UNC team. Despite their offensive firepower, this isn't a team that will dominant you from three. 37% is respectable, but Johnson is crucial to this team. In the loss to Texas, Johnson went just one-for-six from three. It was the only game this season he shot more than four threes and did not mark more than one. If you can clamp down on Johnson, you really hurt a key source of offense for North Carolina.
Coby White has been not what you would call a 'surprise,' per say, but under-heralded perhaps. White is one of two blue-chip freshmen for Roy Williams this season and, despite standing at 6'5", is the Tar Heels' point guard. White may not be a "true" point guard, but he won the job in the preseason and has been maybe the player of the season at this point for UNC. He's become option 'C' for UNC with 15.7 points and 3.6 assists per game while still only averaging just about 23 minutes per game. His shooting stroke is second behind Johnson on the team as he's averaging 44% from behind the line, and has made the most shots from deep (18) on the team. He led the Heels in scoring in Las Vegas, including a 33-point, seven-for-ten from deep, effort to keep them hanging around in their loss to Texas, and a team-high 19 points against UCLA. His size makes him tough to play against at the point guard and he's surely going to cause Zavier Simpson problems with his tall frame. Simpson vs. White is going to be the premier match-up on the court Wednesday night.
An unsung piece to this collective puzzle is senior guard Kenny Williams. Standing at 6'4", Williams is a defensive stopper who shot 40% last season from three, but has started this season cold from beyond the arc. He has a similar stretch to this last season in January when he went seven-for-thirty over seven games. Right now, he's 5-for-26 to open the year, and UNC will hope for that to change in Ann Arbor. Working on his consistency has to figure to be key for Williams, but Williams is essential to this team. He saw the second-most minutes over the two games in Las Vegas and, as emphasized by the fact he only averages 6.3 shots a game (sixth on the team in that metric), he affects the way in many ways more than just offense. He's a tough and gritty player who does a lot of the smaller things (he ranked first on the team in charges drawn last season) for the greater good of UNC as a whole. There's a reason coach Roy Williams likes him so much, he will be tasked with locking down Jordan Poole, most likely.
Garrison Brooks is the fifth man in the starting five, but he is not to be overlooked. Brooks, a 6'9" sophomore, offers a bit more physicality to the game than Maye does, and is more of an inside threat as he's yet to shoot a three this season. Brooks won a positional battle against fellow big man Sterling Manley to get these starter minutes but, on average, he's seeing the court just slightly less than Nassir Little. Brooks is averaging a shade over nine points per game on six-and-a-half shots and almost 58% shooting. He's a good defender in the interior and could certainly guard either Teske or whomever is in at the four, but there is then the risk that he may not be able to check them on the perimeter. He's gotten stronger over the offseason and has been solid for UNC in the early season, but I would consider this to be his top test of the year.
Bench Rundown:
Now, we get to Nassir Little. The star freshman is 6'6" and was ranked third in the 2018 class by 247Sports, but at this point in the season, getting 20 minutes per game, he is coming off the bench for Roy Williams. Little does a lot of everything, and does most of it well. With a 7'1" wingspan, he is a top defensive talent, but on the offensive end everyone already knows his prowess. He averages nearly thirteen points per game on 64.5% two-point shooting. He is a likely small forward, but is also a versatile player who can slash and get open while also creating for himself. That said, his three-point stroke is not fully there yet as he's gone five-for-seventeen (29.4%) from deep thus far. Still, his athletic ability is next level and there's a reason he was so hyped in the preseason. I think Williams needs to let Little play. He's a match-up issue and will draw Michigan's best wing defender in Charles Matthews onto him, which may free up Cameron Johnson when the two are on the court together. That has been a criticism levied against Williams this season, but we will see if he sticks to his ways, or changes things up.
The other bench storyline, so to speak, centers around back-up point guard Seventh Woods. Woods was a top-50 player in the 2016 class, but was better known for his legendary freshman year mixtape. He has never seen consistent time, but that was set to change this season, and has. He is averaging an incredible 5.4 assists per game, but that is without having played against Texas or UCLA. He missed both games due to a concussion, and is still a question mark for Wednesday's game. Woods being available means we probably see more small ball with a little less Garrison Brooks. If he's out, I would expect maybe a bit more of all three 6'8"+ men on the court at the same time. I would also expect White or Little to play a bigger role and see more of the court, especially if Woods is unavailable.
With or without Woods, Rechon Black is worth keeping an eye on. A freshman standing 6'7", Black can play the point guard position and handle the ball, or play the shooting guard spot and make aggressive moves to the rim, or do the same at small forward. With Woods' absence, he's been the second man off the bench for the Heels. He's incredibly valuable as a versatile player who can run the floor at 6'7", but also play the two or the three when need be. He's shooting 58% on the season thus far with thirteen two-pointers taken compared to four threes.He's not a massive scoring threat, but his size at the guard position makes him a solid rebounder and a match-up issue for teams.
Sterling Manley is a 6'11" sophomore with plenty of potential to make an impact on the game for the Tar Heels. The big man lives inside the arc, but he has a nice touch around the rim and the ability to use a plethora of post moves against opposition. From Pickerington Central in Ohio, the high school that produced Caris LeVert and Ibi Watson, among other notable non-Michigan players, he plays an important roll off the bench in spelling his fellow big men. Manley is shooting 51.6% on the season, down about 5% from last season, but is rebounding a full board higher than last season's average. You know what you're getting with him and while he may not play a ton (he averaged just 7.5 minutes in Las Vegas) he's worth keeping an eye on.
Rounding out the men you should know for North Carolina is Brandon Robinson. Robinson, a 6'4" guard, averages nearly ten minutes a game off the bench and, like Woods, was a member of the 2016 recruiting class. But he, too, has failed to get regular minutes. The past two seasons have been steps forward, but Robinson, with the uptick in minutes and shots, would like to get his three-point field goal percentage to a more consistent rate to match his improved two-pointers. 59% from twos is very solid, but 28.6% from three as a man who comes off the bench to put shots up is lacking a bit. It's an important year for Robinson who will really hope to step up for his team in his junior year.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
I think this game is a much worse match-up for Michigan than Villanova was. Villanova played straight into their hands with a quick point guard with little end product, bruising forwards that may not find range from deep, and little serious wing depth. North Carolina has the opposite of all three. Coby White is the biggest point guard Zavier Simpson has squared off with thus far, and has the most talent. Two of the three starting bigs for UNC (Maye and Johnson) will shoot plenty from deep, and Johnson in particular is a star from outside. Finally, UNC has a McDonald's All-American and top five wing player coming off the bench as "depth" for the position. The high-octane offense of North Carolina is going to be the biggest stress test on this vaunted Michigan defense.
Match-ups are going to be key for me, and Roy Williams, for me, needs to trust his best five players against Michigan. That means giving Nassir Little at least 28 minutes over Garrison Brooks. Maye, Johnson, and Little creates lots of interesting match-ups on defense for Michigan. Instead of Charles Matthews starting the game on Johnson and Ignas Brazdeikis being able to guard a player like Brooks, who lives inside, or Maye, who he is a superior athlete to, he (or Isaiah Livers) will be tasked with following Johnson all around the court as Matthews attempts to guard Little. At point, I also worry if Eli Brooks is going to be able to keep up with White while spelling Zavier Simpson. For that reason, I think we will see a lot of Brooks on Kenny Williams while Poole takes a turn on White. We could also see both Simpson and Brooks on the court, letting Brooks run as the shooting guard while Simpson covers White.
Michigan's defense has not faced a test like this up to this point in the season. Providence is the most comparable team, a side with lots of length who really takes "position-less basketball" up a notch. UNC does not go that far, but they offer lots of floor spacing and small-ball line-ups that Michigan has been preparing for. I think their preparation to this point has been really good for the challenges that North Carolina brings. That said, while I was genuinely optimistic after writing the preview for Villanova, I have more lingering concerns with this North Carolina side. Those questions will all be answered in two days.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
North Carolina -- An Overview:
They may have lost their undefeated record, but UNC has still been incredibly impressive. They're coming off a three-point loss to Texas, but followed that up in Las Vegas with a pounding in the second half of UCLA. They also laid a beatdown on Stanford in Chapel Hill, but struggled yet again this season against Wofford on the road. They're averaging the fifth most points in the NCAA (96.6 per game) and have snared the most rebounds in the NCAA (though stats like this are inflating given they are one of a select few teams with seven games already). Roy Williams leads the team and has been given a different task, with a pair of star freshmen, who we'll cover, set to be one-and-dones. Williams has never once had two freshmen go one-and-done into the NBA Draft and be selected, that may very well change. But if they live up to their potential, it will be worth it for the Tar Heels.
Starting Five:
If you know anything about North Carolina, you know about Luke Maye. Maye was a Third-Team AP All-American last season and has walked into this year as the preseason player of the year selection for the ACC. By most all publications, he is a First-Team All-American choice, including Blue Ribbon, NBC, CBS, and ESPN. The 6'7" senior forward can do a bit of everything: bang it down low in the paint, shoot from deep, rebound, he even does well to pass the ball. Maye's free-throw shooting has gotten drastically better, it's up almost 16.5% from last season, but he has not been as good as the hopes have been. His scoring, rebounding, assists, and three-point shooting are all down from his end-of-season averages from his junior year, and this is with fewer minutes and shots per game as well. As a small-ball center, and with a more balanced line-up, though, this is more to show the balance that this UNC has rather than any sort of poor performance from Maye himself. He's a senior leader for this team, and Jon Teske's going to have his hands full on Wednesday night. The hope will be that he remains out of form from deep and feels forced to challenge Michigan's 7'2" behemoth in the paint, where Teske has been near-unbeatable. You could also throw Ignas Brazdeikis or Isaiah Livers on Maye, but the match-up would figure to depend on personnel and trust in the big man vs. the freshman for MIchigan. Maye's been a bit quieter, let's see if he can shine on a big stage.
Perhaps no one has been bigger for the Tar Heels than 6'9" senior forward/swing-man Cameron Johnson. Johnson was considering Michigan as a grad transfer from Pittsburgh, but Johnson took his two years of eligibility to Chapel Hill. Johnson has been a sniper from three and currently leads the team in points per game with 16.4, to go with his impressive 48.5% clip from three (that's 16-for-33). Elite from the line and from beyond the arc, Johnson is known for the stroke from long range but also gets to the rim well. For my money, he's the most important player on this UNC team. Despite their offensive firepower, this isn't a team that will dominant you from three. 37% is respectable, but Johnson is crucial to this team. In the loss to Texas, Johnson went just one-for-six from three. It was the only game this season he shot more than four threes and did not mark more than one. If you can clamp down on Johnson, you really hurt a key source of offense for North Carolina.
Coby White has been not what you would call a 'surprise,' per say, but under-heralded perhaps. White is one of two blue-chip freshmen for Roy Williams this season and, despite standing at 6'5", is the Tar Heels' point guard. White may not be a "true" point guard, but he won the job in the preseason and has been maybe the player of the season at this point for UNC. He's become option 'C' for UNC with 15.7 points and 3.6 assists per game while still only averaging just about 23 minutes per game. His shooting stroke is second behind Johnson on the team as he's averaging 44% from behind the line, and has made the most shots from deep (18) on the team. He led the Heels in scoring in Las Vegas, including a 33-point, seven-for-ten from deep, effort to keep them hanging around in their loss to Texas, and a team-high 19 points against UCLA. His size makes him tough to play against at the point guard and he's surely going to cause Zavier Simpson problems with his tall frame. Simpson vs. White is going to be the premier match-up on the court Wednesday night.
An unsung piece to this collective puzzle is senior guard Kenny Williams. Standing at 6'4", Williams is a defensive stopper who shot 40% last season from three, but has started this season cold from beyond the arc. He has a similar stretch to this last season in January when he went seven-for-thirty over seven games. Right now, he's 5-for-26 to open the year, and UNC will hope for that to change in Ann Arbor. Working on his consistency has to figure to be key for Williams, but Williams is essential to this team. He saw the second-most minutes over the two games in Las Vegas and, as emphasized by the fact he only averages 6.3 shots a game (sixth on the team in that metric), he affects the way in many ways more than just offense. He's a tough and gritty player who does a lot of the smaller things (he ranked first on the team in charges drawn last season) for the greater good of UNC as a whole. There's a reason coach Roy Williams likes him so much, he will be tasked with locking down Jordan Poole, most likely.
Garrison Brooks is the fifth man in the starting five, but he is not to be overlooked. Brooks, a 6'9" sophomore, offers a bit more physicality to the game than Maye does, and is more of an inside threat as he's yet to shoot a three this season. Brooks won a positional battle against fellow big man Sterling Manley to get these starter minutes but, on average, he's seeing the court just slightly less than Nassir Little. Brooks is averaging a shade over nine points per game on six-and-a-half shots and almost 58% shooting. He's a good defender in the interior and could certainly guard either Teske or whomever is in at the four, but there is then the risk that he may not be able to check them on the perimeter. He's gotten stronger over the offseason and has been solid for UNC in the early season, but I would consider this to be his top test of the year.
Bench Rundown:
Now, we get to Nassir Little. The star freshman is 6'6" and was ranked third in the 2018 class by 247Sports, but at this point in the season, getting 20 minutes per game, he is coming off the bench for Roy Williams. Little does a lot of everything, and does most of it well. With a 7'1" wingspan, he is a top defensive talent, but on the offensive end everyone already knows his prowess. He averages nearly thirteen points per game on 64.5% two-point shooting. He is a likely small forward, but is also a versatile player who can slash and get open while also creating for himself. That said, his three-point stroke is not fully there yet as he's gone five-for-seventeen (29.4%) from deep thus far. Still, his athletic ability is next level and there's a reason he was so hyped in the preseason. I think Williams needs to let Little play. He's a match-up issue and will draw Michigan's best wing defender in Charles Matthews onto him, which may free up Cameron Johnson when the two are on the court together. That has been a criticism levied against Williams this season, but we will see if he sticks to his ways, or changes things up.
The other bench storyline, so to speak, centers around back-up point guard Seventh Woods. Woods was a top-50 player in the 2016 class, but was better known for his legendary freshman year mixtape. He has never seen consistent time, but that was set to change this season, and has. He is averaging an incredible 5.4 assists per game, but that is without having played against Texas or UCLA. He missed both games due to a concussion, and is still a question mark for Wednesday's game. Woods being available means we probably see more small ball with a little less Garrison Brooks. If he's out, I would expect maybe a bit more of all three 6'8"+ men on the court at the same time. I would also expect White or Little to play a bigger role and see more of the court, especially if Woods is unavailable.
With or without Woods, Rechon Black is worth keeping an eye on. A freshman standing 6'7", Black can play the point guard position and handle the ball, or play the shooting guard spot and make aggressive moves to the rim, or do the same at small forward. With Woods' absence, he's been the second man off the bench for the Heels. He's incredibly valuable as a versatile player who can run the floor at 6'7", but also play the two or the three when need be. He's shooting 58% on the season thus far with thirteen two-pointers taken compared to four threes.He's not a massive scoring threat, but his size at the guard position makes him a solid rebounder and a match-up issue for teams.
Sterling Manley is a 6'11" sophomore with plenty of potential to make an impact on the game for the Tar Heels. The big man lives inside the arc, but he has a nice touch around the rim and the ability to use a plethora of post moves against opposition. From Pickerington Central in Ohio, the high school that produced Caris LeVert and Ibi Watson, among other notable non-Michigan players, he plays an important roll off the bench in spelling his fellow big men. Manley is shooting 51.6% on the season, down about 5% from last season, but is rebounding a full board higher than last season's average. You know what you're getting with him and while he may not play a ton (he averaged just 7.5 minutes in Las Vegas) he's worth keeping an eye on.
Rounding out the men you should know for North Carolina is Brandon Robinson. Robinson, a 6'4" guard, averages nearly ten minutes a game off the bench and, like Woods, was a member of the 2016 recruiting class. But he, too, has failed to get regular minutes. The past two seasons have been steps forward, but Robinson, with the uptick in minutes and shots, would like to get his three-point field goal percentage to a more consistent rate to match his improved two-pointers. 59% from twos is very solid, but 28.6% from three as a man who comes off the bench to put shots up is lacking a bit. It's an important year for Robinson who will really hope to step up for his team in his junior year.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
I think this game is a much worse match-up for Michigan than Villanova was. Villanova played straight into their hands with a quick point guard with little end product, bruising forwards that may not find range from deep, and little serious wing depth. North Carolina has the opposite of all three. Coby White is the biggest point guard Zavier Simpson has squared off with thus far, and has the most talent. Two of the three starting bigs for UNC (Maye and Johnson) will shoot plenty from deep, and Johnson in particular is a star from outside. Finally, UNC has a McDonald's All-American and top five wing player coming off the bench as "depth" for the position. The high-octane offense of North Carolina is going to be the biggest stress test on this vaunted Michigan defense.
Match-ups are going to be key for me, and Roy Williams, for me, needs to trust his best five players against Michigan. That means giving Nassir Little at least 28 minutes over Garrison Brooks. Maye, Johnson, and Little creates lots of interesting match-ups on defense for Michigan. Instead of Charles Matthews starting the game on Johnson and Ignas Brazdeikis being able to guard a player like Brooks, who lives inside, or Maye, who he is a superior athlete to, he (or Isaiah Livers) will be tasked with following Johnson all around the court as Matthews attempts to guard Little. At point, I also worry if Eli Brooks is going to be able to keep up with White while spelling Zavier Simpson. For that reason, I think we will see a lot of Brooks on Kenny Williams while Poole takes a turn on White. We could also see both Simpson and Brooks on the court, letting Brooks run as the shooting guard while Simpson covers White.
Michigan's defense has not faced a test like this up to this point in the season. Providence is the most comparable team, a side with lots of length who really takes "position-less basketball" up a notch. UNC does not go that far, but they offer lots of floor spacing and small-ball line-ups that Michigan has been preparing for. I think their preparation to this point has been really good for the challenges that North Carolina brings. That said, while I was genuinely optimistic after writing the preview for Villanova, I have more lingering concerns with this North Carolina side. Those questions will all be answered in two days.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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