Just one more weekend stands in the way of the Midwestern NPSL sides and the postseason. Shape is starting to form in the region, but there are still many questions to be answered that the last match or two will provide. If you are an AFC Ann Arbor fan, you may not be fully aware of the situations going on throughout the rest of the region as well. These situations can be a bit complicated but rest easy because I've got you covered. I'll take you through every division, give you every match's importance, and break down the playoff match-ups that you could see. Let's get this started.
Great Lakes Division:
Let's start things off with the division that Ann Arbor fans are most familiar with, the Great Lakes, home of two-time champions AFC Ann Arbor. There are two relevant matches remaining in the division, the one involving your Mighty Oak, and the other to confirm second place.
AFC Ann Arbor v. FC Indiana
The Implications:
An Ann Arbor victory seals up a top-two spot in the division for them, meaning they will receive a first-round bye in the region. The win gets Ann Arbor second place, but to reach the top seed they will need Minneapolis City to drop points on Saturday as well. The Great Lakes champs will hope to have two reasons to celebrate on Saturday as they are presented with their Great Lakes Championship trophy immediately following the match.
Milwaukee Torrent v. FC Columbus
The Implications:
Very simple. If Columbus win, they finish second in the division and advance to the playoffs. They would finish level on points with Grand Rapids but since they beat them in both meetings they hold the tiebreaker. If they lose or draw, Grand Rapids FC stay in the second spot and move on. Simple enough.
East Division:
Now, we'll take things to the East where both teams moving on are already confirmed. Cleveland SC and Erie Commodores both moved on as Erie and Fort Pitt, currently in third, drew on Thursday. The draw dropped Fort Pitt out of the picture but opened the door for AFC Ann Arbor to leap past the East's winner. However, we are set up for a heck of a finish.
Erie Commodores FC vs. Cleveland SC
The Implications:
This one is for all the marbles. Both teams are level at 24 points. This is both teams last match of the season. A win for either side wins them the division while a draw gives Cleveland the advantage as they would have more head-to-head points against Erie (having won the first meeting of the two sides). Erie could potentially rue the missed opportunity they had to put the ball in their hands after Fort Pitt.
The Bye: AFC Ann Arbor or the Winner of the East?:
A bye in the region could go to both of these teams with the right combination, but it would require a win for AFC, a win for either side in the East's match, AND a Minneapolis loss. Second place in the region seems highly likely to fall to either of these two divisions. But what are the scenarios? First and foremost, things are not too complex given both divisions have the same amount of teams, so points per game and goal differential per game is standard. As mentioned in the Great Lakes section, if Ann Arbor wins the East's winner will finish in third in the region regardless of who that may be. However, if Ann Arbor draw or lose, then East will snag the bye IF there is a winner out of Cleveland and Erie. A draw puts both teams at 25 points, but a win boosts one of them to 27. Meanwhile, a loss for Ann Arbor would strand them at 26 while a draw would put them at 27, but they would be guaranteed to finish behind either side on goal differential (+18 compared to Erie's current +22 or Cleveland's current +24). In summary, AFC Ann Arbor (thankfully for the Main Street faithful) control their own destiny and will hope to get a key win.
North Division:
Let's venture to the North, which will be represented by two teams from Minnesota: champions Minneapolis City SC, and runners-up Duluth FC, who sealed off second-place with a 1-0 victory over another team who was looking to jump into the playoffs, Med City FC. That was the key match of the division, but things are still not fully set.
Dakota Fusion FC v. Minneapolis City SC
The Implications:
Minneapolis are undefeated to this point of the season and will hope to continue that stretch, as avoiding a loss means they will get a bye no matter what. A win clinches the top seed in the region as well, regardless of the results in AFC or the East title-matches. The only way they will lose the grasp of the region is if Ann Arbor win while they draw or lose. Minneapolis were stunned with a 0-0 draw at LC Aris FC, LAFC's only point of the season, so perhaps the Fusion could pull off a stunner and aid the Mighty Oak as well.
Playoff Match-Ups:
So now that we have an idea of who will be in the playoffs, what will the match-ups be? While we must wait to find out where the semi-finals and finals will be, we can draw inferences about the quarter-final match-ups and locations.
NPSL Midwest rules state that the two eastern-most and two western-most teams will meet, with the highest seed hosting each match. I tweeted out a map of some playoff teams a while back, but here is a link with the seven playoff teams listed on it from western-most to eastern-most (round-trip from Minneapolis to Erie: 20 hours and 5 minutes). Now obviously only six will make the playoffs and four will partake in the quarter-final round, however that is something I will address when discussing my next section.
Of course, Ann Arbor fans may be wondering how this map pertains to them. Here are the two scenarios.
Option 1: A Match in the Quarter-Finals:
In simplest terms, their match-up in the quarter-finals (if they were to miss out on a bye) would depend on second-place in their division. Columbus finishing second would pit them against Duluth. If Grand Rapids were to win, however, they would square off with either Cleveland or Erie, whoever finishes second.
Option 2: A Bye to the Semi-Finals
If Ann Arbor do, in fact, get a bye, and in the most likely situation that it is Minneapolis who gets the bye with them, then the two Eastern division teams will meet while Great Lakes' second-place finisher will take on Duluth. Of course, if Minneapolis does drop to third in the region, it will be the two teams from the North meeting in the quarter-finals while it will be the two second-place teams from the East and Great Lakes taking each other on.
Conclusion:
Is this the easiest situation to grasp? Likely not. There are still, even with a game remaining for all teams left in the playoff picture, multiple moving parts for seeding and hosting. I have delayed putting out a formal post describing this till the very latest moment to let things settle, and even still there are situations in all three divisions that need to be played out to see fully unfold. In short though, what AFC fans want is a win. A win makes things a lot easier for everyone involved with the AFC Ann Arbor family as they can rest easy for a week and then enjoy the quarter-finals on July 14th without the nerves they would have if the Mighty Oak were involved.
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