Predicting the Knockout Stages of the World Cup

We are now officially into the knockout stages of the world's biggest football tournament, and things have heated up. There are plenty of exciting match-ups on the left and right sides of the bracket. With the left side full of powerhouses like Brazil, France, Argentina, and Portugal, the right side hosting seven teams out of eight from UEFA, and sides like Germany and Poland missing out entirely, the tournament is set to be even more exciting then it already has been. I'll be taking a look at every single Round of 16 match followed by predicting the remainder of the tournament which will give you my pick for the winner.

Before I start, I should preface this by saying these are all educated guesses of my own. Going through these was incredibly tough and from the first match-up I had trouble picking a winner. The best part about the World Cup is that you can never seems to predict it fully correct. With that said, I did my best to give it a shot. Now, let's dive in.

Round of 16

Uruguay vs. Portugal: 
This match could be an absolute slugfest. Both sides have bruising defenders (Pepe vs. Diego Godin), brilliant attackers (Cristiano Ronaldo and Bernardo Silva vs. Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani), and quality in the middle of the park (William Carvalho vs. Rodrigo Betancur). Portugal did not look like the better side for the vast majority of the game in any of their three matches, however, and that's been cause for concern for some. On the other hand, Uruguay finished the group stage with a bang against Russia and helped erase some concerns doubters had after their tough matches against Egypt and Saudi Arabia. This is a match that I will have circled on the calendar as it's set up to be a thrilling affair. Ronaldo has been superb this World Cup, helping drag Portugal along even if they haven't been fully up to par. I see no reason to bet against them at this point and I fancy their midfield to win the battles of possession.
Winner: Portugal

France vs. Argentina: 
Two sides that have been called the bigger under-performers of the tournament now get to square off in an early meeting. This French side was expected to walk through their group. They did no such thing, but yet they still did advance as its winners. Argentina, meanwhile, were set to be eliminated until an 86th minute winner over Nigeria from Marcos Rojo sent them through. This has been an Argentine side in turmoil with reports ranging from mutiny and Messi himself calling the shots to full support for the side's manager Jorge Sampaoli from the Argentine Football Association. This is a French side with so many attacking options and such power in the midfield, that I find it hard to believe that Rojo and Otamendi can slow them substantially. The midfields Argentina has put out on the pitch with Javier Mascherano and either Enzo Perez, Lucas Biglia, or Ever Banega are too weak to not get physically overrun by N'Golo Kante and Paul Pogba and (especially if Banega is not a part) too creatively lacking to feed Messi and his attack-mate properly. I think France will get the victory.
Winner: France

Brazil vs. Mexico: 
Brazil has steadily improved over the group stages, culminating their group with a dominating 2-0 victory over Serbia. Serbia pressed forward, but I believe never truly struck fear into Brazil. Meanwhile, this is a Mexican side who opened with their best result (the now-famous win over Germany), but finished their group by getting thumped by Sweden dropping them into this match-up with Brazil. Mexico has been a feel-good story as a result of their victory over Germany, but most expected them to get to at least this point. The key will lie with Mexico's defending. Their attack options are strong and rather plentiful, but the defensive line is anchored by Hector Moreno with either Hugo Ayala or Carlos Salcedo as his partner. Manager Juan Carlos Osorio likes to switch things up and I see that happening and I would look for Ayala and Moreno to start this match. Phil Coutinho has been, for my money, the star of this World Cup. I look for this Brazilian side to overrun the Mexican defense and strike for more than one goal in a top-class victory. They've impressed me by turning up late and when necessary and while not sold before the tournament fully, and even after their match with Switzerland, I've become a believer.
Winner: Brazil

Belgium vs. Japan:
Belgium rolled through their group without much serious resistance from the other three sides, even fielding a second team against England. Japan's ticket, on the other hand, was punched on the last day of the group with a Senegal loss and advancement via fair play rules. Japan hasn't looked the strongest of sides, beating 10-man Colombia and saving a draw in the 78th minute through Keisuke Honda against Senegal, but with players like Honda and Maya Yoshida, they do have experience in top tier football. I just don't think it'll be enough against a team like Belgium who are so deep with so many options. Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard, Dres Martins, Michy Batshuayi all attacking, a strong midfield and defense, Thibault Courtois in net, it's all amounting just to be too much for Japan. Even with a stellar netminder themselves in captain Eiji Kawashima, I favor Belgium to win and do it by making a statement.
Winner: Belgium

Spain vs. Russia: 
Russia started off hot, but leveled out once facing the top opponent in their group. Spain, meanwhile, ensured first place in their group with a late Iago Aspas goal against Morocco to ensure a draw. Group B was a side where the two giants (Spain and Portugal) never were fully convincing, but their top opponents (Iran and Morocco) were brilliant in resistance. Group A was a bit of the opposite where Russia and Uruguay were good enough to be convincing, but against two sides that were the opposite of convincing. I am not sold on Russia being a contender, I think their level is around the third game of their group and not the first two. Aleksandr Golovin has been their top man in the competition, but he and his fellow teammates are not to the Spanish quality. I think Spain goes through, but Russia will indeed fight them on it to the end.
Winner: Spain

Croatia vs. Denmark: 
You can make a very strong argument for Croatia being the cup's best side so far this tournament. Denmark were less convincing, but only conceded once in their group (in part due to not seeming happy to go for more than a draw against France). Croatia rested many of their key players against Iceland, including their entire starting back four and Mario Mandzukic. Dejan Lovren has been a rock in their defense and a big reason that they've been so strong, not to mention their world-class midfield duo of Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic. This is a Croatian side that legitimately could go deep in this tournament. Denmark, however, have the defense to try and stop them led by Chelsea man Andres Christensen and the brilliant attacking midfield maestro Christian Eriksen. This is one of the more interesting matches that many won't give a second thought to, but could end up being a game of chess. I favor Croatia's quality, but won't dismiss Denmark.
Winner: Croatia

Sweden vs. Switzerland: 
Sweden topping their group consisting over Germany and Mexico is one of the bigger surprises of the World Cup. They really could have gone unbeaten, if it weren't for Toni Kroos' late bit of brilliance against them. Meanwhile, Switzerland also looking very strong this tournament and were a bit unlucky not to beat Costa Rica and finish top of Group F. Breel Embolo finally started for the Swiss against Costa Rica, I think he and Xherdan Shaqiri are both very special players on the wings and can make up for what they lack in central attack options. Sweden are a tightly organized squad who have two central strikers on the bigger side in Marcus Berg and Ola Toivonen as the main men. Of their five goals, two were penalties, one an own goal, and the other two from open play. You'd like to see a bit more attacking quality out of them, but they're playing to their strengths which works in competitions like this. This is the toughest of the Round of 16 matches to call, because I think both sides play strong together but weak in attack, and this match is the case of pitting two similar sides in nature against each other. I will go with Switzerland, but I expect this to be one that can go either way.
Winner: Switzerland

Colombia vs. England:
England played a weaker eleven against Belgium and seem to have gotten their wish, entering the weaker right side of the bracket as opposed to a loaded left. They are greeted, however, by a solid Colombia who won the mess of Group H. England's 3-5-2 under Gareth Southgate, with obvious Pep Guardiola influences, is interesting as has worked against Tunisia and Panama with a back three of John Stones (who had two goals against Panama), Kyle Walker, and Harry Maguire, but Kieran Trippier has made the right-back position his own in Russia. With a line led by Harry Kane and a midfield anchored by Jordan Henderson, the youthful Three Lions look alright despite a loss to Belgium with an aforementioned weaker side. Colombia offers an interesting challenge with James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao as creative offerings, but strength also through defense with blossoming young stars Davinson Sanchez (who will square off with his Tottenham mates) and Yerry Mina of Barcelona. If Colombia can find strength in the midfield, where Henderson has done very well alongside Dele Alli (when available) and Jesse Lingard, they have a chance. But I think the English front-line is well-equipped enough to find their way through a strong Colombian back-line and push them forward.
Winner: England

Quarter-Finals

Portugal vs. France: 
This is a match that is thrilling for this early in the tournament. Two favorites will collide head-on as the winners of Euro2016 take on a team tabbed by many to win it all. This match, I think, would come down to defending. On the French side, you have a very young defense with the regulars consisting of Lucas Hernandez (22) on the left, Samuel Umiti (24) and Raphael Varane (25) centrally, and Benjamin Pavard (22) on the right. If you include bench players, not a single player who has seen action so far this tournament is over the age of 25 in the defense. Portugal, on the other hand, is helmed centrally by Pepe (35) and Jose Fonte (34), neither of whom play in a top four European league at this stage of their careers. Those two versus a side with the World Cup's youngest goal-scorer ever in Kylian Mbappe (19) is a great storyline, plus you have veteran Olivier Giroud who can handle the physicality of those two if he is to play a part in this match. This is the game most of all where Ronaldo will need all the help he can get. He can score plenty, but his hat trick against Spain had a bit of luck to it and while inexperienced, the French defense is stout. I will pick France to snag this game from Portugal, but definitely don't think this is a foregone conclusion.
Winner: France

Brazil vs. Belgium:
A tough match to predict, both sides have plenty of attacking capability, but suspect defending. This problem is more heavily present on Roberto Martinez's Belgian side, as he is not exactly known for his defensive coaching ability, though two Tottenham men (Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen) have done well both for club and country. The third man in the back three, Dedryck Boyata of Celtic, is holding his weight in the defense and because of that there's been no reason to worry (though two goals against Tunisia is not ideal). That will be tested against Brazil. On the flip side, questions of whether or not Brazil's older line that is missing Dani Alves in it will be able to handle the Belgian fire-power are plausible as well. Like so many matches, this one should come down to the midfield battle and the strength of Brazil's Casemiro and Paulinho (plus Coutinho when dropping back) really should be enough to handle the more crafty Kevin De Bruyne who is outstanding, no question, but not the strongest presence in the heart of the park. These are two of the best teams in the tournament and any knocks on either side are fairly relative to each other's stature, but I favor Brazil here.
Winner: Brazil

Spain vs. Croatia: 
This should be an absolute barn-burner of a match. Croatia handled Messi's Argentina, but what will they make of the rough-and-tumble Diego Costa? The match-up to watch here is undoubtedly Costa vs. Lovren, both of whom will not back down from anything on the pitch. You also have your midfield battle of Modric and Rakitic vs. Thiago and Sergio Busquets in what will be one of the more star-studded midfield battles of the tournament and especially of the quarter-finals. I really like Croatia even in this tough match, and I'll tell you why. They've seemed unfazed all tournament so yes this will be a Spanish side full of Madrid and Barcelona players, I don't think that'll faze them one bit now. Plus their first-choice side will be well-rested for the knockout stages and if you can see off Denmark, a side strong in their defensive capabilities, there is a likelihood that they may have gotten through without being too exhausted. I'll go for the upset and pick Croatia in this match.
Winner: Croatia

Switzerland vs. England:
Some will slate this match-up for being the weakest of the quarter-finals, and they perhaps may be right. But that does not mean it will not be an exciting bout. On one hand, you have England. The side who haven't been able to find a way through the quarter-finals of a major tournament since the 1996 World Cup. Then you have Switzerland, an underdog side without a quarter-final appearance in any major tournament since the World Cup they hosted in 1954. These are two sides that historically have failed to bring home silverware, with England's struggles being more magnified. You have a Swiss side that will test Trippier and Ashley Young on the wings, and this would be a key match-up to watch. I do think, however, that England has a bit too much to offer in their own attack and would find it hard-pressed to slow them down in attack. Switzerland is on the upswing, but their story I believe ends in the quarter-finals and England, perhaps with a bit of the luck of the draw, enter the semi-finals of a major tournament.
Winner: England

Semi-Finals

France vs. Brazil:
A match between arguably the two teams most likely picked to be champions before this tournament is enough to get anyone excited. Both of these sides would have had difficult roads to get here both in the previous knockout stages and even in their own groups. Now though, it is very possible that the two top teams in the world are meeting in this match. Both sides have an embarrassment of riches in attack and the match likely sees Gabriel Jesus, Coutinho, Neymar, and Willian vs. Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe, and Moussa Dembele. This is still an incredibly young French side, however, taking on a Brazilian team with experience and a drive to get past the embarrassing 7-1 defeat in the semi-finals of last World Cup in front of their home fans. I prefer the options in defense that France has, but I think that their inexperience, if it hasn't already, should really catch up to them while they attempt to defend four of the world's best attackers at any given time (given that Roberto Firmino can come on for Jesus. N'Golo Kante is the key to this game. If he can play as well as he has been with Leicester and Chelsea in tracking back and winning possession, aiding in easing off the defense's pressure, France has a great shot at this game. But even with him, it'll be tough to cover all attacking options plus Paulinho and Casemiro if they come forward. Being realistic, I think Euro2020 and World Cup 2022 are France's chances on the big stage and going out in the semi-finals will be disappointing, but it's a great learning lesson and most, if not all, the starting eleven will be ready to return next World Cup with a vengeance of their own.
Winner: Brazil

Croatia vs. England:
The less glamorous semi-final would still be a brilliant story between two countries that nearly no one expected to be at this point in the tournament, yet here they are. It would be an improbable run for two teams, both of whom, however, I could certainly see not making it this far (England losing to Colombia, Croatia to Spain) but both with plenty of talent to get them here. I like the English attacking options and if England are to make it this far I would imagine that Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling would have had a great tournament to this point. I think that Croatia's midfield's ability is still the best in the entire tournament and in spite of that they will have a tough time with Henderson in good form and Dele Alli, but if they have indeed gotten past Spain I'd be surprised if they could not handle this English side, with the key being that third midfielder that will either be an AM (like Andrej Kramaric) or another DM (like Marcelo Brozovic) making sure they are up to standard as well. I think that provided Croatia's defense can handle their weight as they have been assuming they make it this far, then the finals and vanquishing England should be in their reach.
Winner: Croatia

Third-Place

France vs. England:
Discussing this very briefly, I will pick France for this. Sometimes, though, the favorite can feel let down and the underdog can feel hyped up on energy for making it this far in a third-place match, and I can certainly see that happening in this match. But I think Gareth Southgate would need to get his tactics spot on and each player, especially in that back three and on the wing-backs, would have to be at their best to pull off the bronze medal upset. 
Winner: France

Final

Brazil vs. Croatia: 
This would certainly be one of the most interesting finals we've had in a World Cup and, in fact, is a rematch of a pre-World Cup friendly played at Anfield. I value my midfielders abilities a great deal and think that these two teams, along with the French, have incredibly capable midfielders and could see them carried here even if attack or defense falters. Croatia coming this far would be incredibly for their side. Brazil coming this far would be expected. Sports psychology could certainly have a case study if this were to occur and see how expectations play into performance. In a meeting of sides like this, Croatia's attack versus Brazil's defense is what I'd look out for. By now, everyone is well aware of Brazil's attack and its capabilities. The Croatian defense is strong and sturdy, and Dejan Lovren has proven his ability to handle Ronaldo and Messi, so this is just another challenge for him. But a side like Brazil can strike quick and target a defender of their choosing. Instead, the real challenge would be Croatia's attack handling their own weight. Marcelo certainly likes to attack and Fagner on the right is capable himself, that should leave room for wingers Ante Rebic and Ivan Perisic to run and could, in theory, leave Mandzukic able to take on the center-backs in isolation situations or off of crosses. That said, I would favor Brazil in this match up because the general ability of their side. Despite age in the defense or their inconsistency, they still remain strong pieces that can be boosted up by a strong midfield and attack. This would be a closer match than some may think, but in the end I'll still pick Brazil.
2018 World Cup Winner: Brazil

Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for continued World Cup coverage and thoughts, but mainly AFC Ann Arbor, Michigan basketball, and Liverpool FC coverage. 

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