We do not even know who will be on the Michigan basketball roster for next season with absolute certainty. Yet, with the triumphs of a great run towering over the sadness that the title game loss brought, fans cannot help but get excited for what will be coach John Beilein's 12th year at the helm of the Michigan Wolverines. Consider this your primer for what is to come.
The Losses:
The three guaranteed losses were key in Michigan's deep run this season. First is the heart of the Michigan team, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman. The under-recruited two-star late addition to the 2014 recruiting class was plucked out of Pennsylvania by Beilein without another high-major scholarship offer to his name. What followed was outstanding development with increases in points, rebounds, and assists over all four years culminating in 12.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game this year as a senior. He provided a sense of calm leadership to the Wolverines and provided fans with many clutch moments: the two free throws to seal a win over Maryland and the layup-and-a-foul in overtime to take down Minnesota being just two of multiple. The career games played leader as a Wolverine will certainly be missed a leave a hole in the Michigan starting five.
Fellow seniors Duncan Robinson and Jaaron Simmons, two players who ended up at Michigan having transferred from elsewhere, are the other two seniors on the team. Simmons only spent the past season at Michigan, but played a role as eventual back-up point guard. His minutes will be open for Eli Brooks or freshman David DeJulius to take. Duncan Robinson started the season as the starter but eventually shifted to coming off the bench while playing starters minutes. The incredible stat of Michigan going 28-0 when he scored six points or more this past season truly goes to show just how important he was to the team. He improved vast leaps on the defensive end as well going from a below-par defender to a player able to play tight defense on an opposing four (see: game at home against Iowa vs. Tyler Cook, who exploded for 28 points the previous match-up. Due in large part to Robinson, he was held to 10 in Ann Arbor and 13 in the Big Ten Tournament). Seeing how Robinson's productivity will be replaced, and who can take his void as a serious three-point shooting threat, will be interesting to follow.
Of course, discussing the potential losses would not be complete without bringing up the threat of losing Moritz Wagner to the NBA. While Charles Matthews has been discussed as having the potential to at least declare for the NBA Draft, it seems likely that he will return and develop in Ann Arbor for another year. Wagner on the other hand in projected in nearly every mock draft as a top-40 NBA Draft pick and in some as a late-first rounder. Wagner's leaving would open up Jon Teske to playing upwards of 25-30 minutes per game and give Austin Davis or incoming freshman Colin Castleton the opportunity for steady back-up minutes. Davis has yet to be seriously tested in-game while Castleton remains an unknown (as nearly all freshmen are) with the potential to redshirt for his first year on campus. I will predict Wagner enters the NBA Draft and Jon Teske will get the opportunity to take over the starting role.
Who Returns:
Despite a very likely three losses of players who played starter minutes from last season, much returns from this season to next. Perhaps no piece will be as important as Charles Matthews. Matthews season started on a fast pace with six games in the 2017 portion of the season finished at 20 points or above. He faced a slump in Big Ten conference play, however, averaging just 9.6 points per game throughout with just a single game (at Nebraska) scoring 15 points. In the NCAA Tournament, however, Matthews sometimes single-handedly kept Michigan in control of games and thus in the tournament. His role with the Wolverines in the tournament is what he will likely have to do on a consistent basis in order for the Wolverines to hit their goals next year.
Michigan's backcourt next season is another reason to be optimistic. Zavier Simpson firmly established himself as not just the starting point guard but one of the top defensive guards in the Big Ten, and perhaps the country. Michigan's pit bull led the team in assists as well dishing out 3.7 a game. As a sophomore, Simpson was already a lock-down defender, but with another summer of training I feel comfortable in saying that he could become an elite defensive guard. His backcourt mate will likely be Jordan Poole. There is almost too much to say about Michigan's sensational freshman guard who has a knack for exclusively making highlight reel plays. His buzzer-beater against Houston put him on the national stage, but Michigan fans already knew about him. From his nineteen points against Indiana, to his dunk and camera stare-down at Penn State, or many dramatic three-pointers in the season, Poole is a walking highlight on the court. Now, both of these men will need to take steps forward. Simpson only shot 28.6% from three and that is something that it will be hoped he can improve in while Poole will continue to work on defending as well as having to make that next step from role player to 30+ minute contributor. Coach Beilein has a track record for these sorts of improvements however, and the future looks bright.
We have already discussed Jon Teske a little bit, but what about the power forward role? Isaiah Livers earned the starting spot after a stretch of three stellar performances against Iowa, Illinois, and Purdue, but by the end of the season Robinson was getting the lion's share of the minutes. The former Michigan Mr. Basketball will almost certainly start the season in the starting five and get the opportunity to play a more substantial role on offense. Meanwhile, Jon Teske will also play a bigger role this season as well as he will hopefully look to develop a pick-and-pop game to keep that option open when/if Wagner leaves. Grouping the rest of theIt' returners together here: three other potential minutes contributors are Eli Brooks, Ibi Watson, and Austin Davis. Both Brooks and Watson will face heated competition from the incoming freshmen to prove themselves as worthy of the remaining available minutes.
Who's Coming In:
Ignas Brazdeikis is perhaps the most hyped of the freshmen. As a 6'8" left-handed scorer, it's easy to see why. He will immediately slot into the rotation somehow, expect him to get minutes wherever they're open. Another top-100 prospect is Brandon Johns, a 6'8" East Lansing native who spurned his hometown university to go to Ann Arbor. Athletic and with a long wingspan, the idea of him playing minutes as a small-ball center option has been heavily speculated upon and I would consider this to be logical. David DeJulius raised his stock massively over the course of the high school basketball season and finished second in the Michigan Mr. Basketball race to MSU recruit Foster Loyer. DeJulius scored 42 against Loyer's Clarkston team handing them their only loss on the season. That mini-rivalry will continue into college. Finally are the two who committed to Michigan latest and both partially the work of Luke Yaklich: Colin Castleton and Adrien Nunez. Castleton is a versatile 6'10" big man who can shoot the three while Nunez is a 6'5" shooter from New York. This is a very simple generalization of these two (well, all five really) but we will go more in-depth into each of their games with a special freshmen feature article. The main point is that all five of the incoming freshmen would seem to be able to make their own impact potentially as early as next season.
What to Expect:
It would seem far too early to impose expectations on this team, and you would be right in believing so. However, with the incoming recruiting class and several returning key pieces, Michigan is likely penciled in as a likely top-three finisher with potential to win the conference. This of course will depend greatly on how each player develops, if the freshmen can contribute, and if the impact of the losses is minimal, but on paper this looks as if it could be one of John Beilein's finest teams at Michigan. Michigan fans will certainly hope that maybe the 2018-19 season can match the heights and joys that this season has brought them.
Follow me on Twitter @RMABTweets for more Michigan (and Liverpool) Tweets. Tweet at me your thoughts! Or send me an e-mail at redsmaizeandblue@gmail.com.
The Losses:
The three guaranteed losses were key in Michigan's deep run this season. First is the heart of the Michigan team, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman. The under-recruited two-star late addition to the 2014 recruiting class was plucked out of Pennsylvania by Beilein without another high-major scholarship offer to his name. What followed was outstanding development with increases in points, rebounds, and assists over all four years culminating in 12.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game this year as a senior. He provided a sense of calm leadership to the Wolverines and provided fans with many clutch moments: the two free throws to seal a win over Maryland and the layup-and-a-foul in overtime to take down Minnesota being just two of multiple. The career games played leader as a Wolverine will certainly be missed a leave a hole in the Michigan starting five.
Fellow seniors Duncan Robinson and Jaaron Simmons, two players who ended up at Michigan having transferred from elsewhere, are the other two seniors on the team. Simmons only spent the past season at Michigan, but played a role as eventual back-up point guard. His minutes will be open for Eli Brooks or freshman David DeJulius to take. Duncan Robinson started the season as the starter but eventually shifted to coming off the bench while playing starters minutes. The incredible stat of Michigan going 28-0 when he scored six points or more this past season truly goes to show just how important he was to the team. He improved vast leaps on the defensive end as well going from a below-par defender to a player able to play tight defense on an opposing four (see: game at home against Iowa vs. Tyler Cook, who exploded for 28 points the previous match-up. Due in large part to Robinson, he was held to 10 in Ann Arbor and 13 in the Big Ten Tournament). Seeing how Robinson's productivity will be replaced, and who can take his void as a serious three-point shooting threat, will be interesting to follow.
Of course, discussing the potential losses would not be complete without bringing up the threat of losing Moritz Wagner to the NBA. While Charles Matthews has been discussed as having the potential to at least declare for the NBA Draft, it seems likely that he will return and develop in Ann Arbor for another year. Wagner on the other hand in projected in nearly every mock draft as a top-40 NBA Draft pick and in some as a late-first rounder. Wagner's leaving would open up Jon Teske to playing upwards of 25-30 minutes per game and give Austin Davis or incoming freshman Colin Castleton the opportunity for steady back-up minutes. Davis has yet to be seriously tested in-game while Castleton remains an unknown (as nearly all freshmen are) with the potential to redshirt for his first year on campus. I will predict Wagner enters the NBA Draft and Jon Teske will get the opportunity to take over the starting role.
Who Returns:
Despite a very likely three losses of players who played starter minutes from last season, much returns from this season to next. Perhaps no piece will be as important as Charles Matthews. Matthews season started on a fast pace with six games in the 2017 portion of the season finished at 20 points or above. He faced a slump in Big Ten conference play, however, averaging just 9.6 points per game throughout with just a single game (at Nebraska) scoring 15 points. In the NCAA Tournament, however, Matthews sometimes single-handedly kept Michigan in control of games and thus in the tournament. His role with the Wolverines in the tournament is what he will likely have to do on a consistent basis in order for the Wolverines to hit their goals next year.
Michigan's backcourt next season is another reason to be optimistic. Zavier Simpson firmly established himself as not just the starting point guard but one of the top defensive guards in the Big Ten, and perhaps the country. Michigan's pit bull led the team in assists as well dishing out 3.7 a game. As a sophomore, Simpson was already a lock-down defender, but with another summer of training I feel comfortable in saying that he could become an elite defensive guard. His backcourt mate will likely be Jordan Poole. There is almost too much to say about Michigan's sensational freshman guard who has a knack for exclusively making highlight reel plays. His buzzer-beater against Houston put him on the national stage, but Michigan fans already knew about him. From his nineteen points against Indiana, to his dunk and camera stare-down at Penn State, or many dramatic three-pointers in the season, Poole is a walking highlight on the court. Now, both of these men will need to take steps forward. Simpson only shot 28.6% from three and that is something that it will be hoped he can improve in while Poole will continue to work on defending as well as having to make that next step from role player to 30+ minute contributor. Coach Beilein has a track record for these sorts of improvements however, and the future looks bright.
We have already discussed Jon Teske a little bit, but what about the power forward role? Isaiah Livers earned the starting spot after a stretch of three stellar performances against Iowa, Illinois, and Purdue, but by the end of the season Robinson was getting the lion's share of the minutes. The former Michigan Mr. Basketball will almost certainly start the season in the starting five and get the opportunity to play a more substantial role on offense. Meanwhile, Jon Teske will also play a bigger role this season as well as he will hopefully look to develop a pick-and-pop game to keep that option open when/if Wagner leaves. Grouping the rest of theIt' returners together here: three other potential minutes contributors are Eli Brooks, Ibi Watson, and Austin Davis. Both Brooks and Watson will face heated competition from the incoming freshmen to prove themselves as worthy of the remaining available minutes.
Who's Coming In:
Ignas Brazdeikis is perhaps the most hyped of the freshmen. As a 6'8" left-handed scorer, it's easy to see why. He will immediately slot into the rotation somehow, expect him to get minutes wherever they're open. Another top-100 prospect is Brandon Johns, a 6'8" East Lansing native who spurned his hometown university to go to Ann Arbor. Athletic and with a long wingspan, the idea of him playing minutes as a small-ball center option has been heavily speculated upon and I would consider this to be logical. David DeJulius raised his stock massively over the course of the high school basketball season and finished second in the Michigan Mr. Basketball race to MSU recruit Foster Loyer. DeJulius scored 42 against Loyer's Clarkston team handing them their only loss on the season. That mini-rivalry will continue into college. Finally are the two who committed to Michigan latest and both partially the work of Luke Yaklich: Colin Castleton and Adrien Nunez. Castleton is a versatile 6'10" big man who can shoot the three while Nunez is a 6'5" shooter from New York. This is a very simple generalization of these two (well, all five really) but we will go more in-depth into each of their games with a special freshmen feature article. The main point is that all five of the incoming freshmen would seem to be able to make their own impact potentially as early as next season.
What to Expect:
It would seem far too early to impose expectations on this team, and you would be right in believing so. However, with the incoming recruiting class and several returning key pieces, Michigan is likely penciled in as a likely top-three finisher with potential to win the conference. This of course will depend greatly on how each player develops, if the freshmen can contribute, and if the impact of the losses is minimal, but on paper this looks as if it could be one of John Beilein's finest teams at Michigan. Michigan fans will certainly hope that maybe the 2018-19 season can match the heights and joys that this season has brought them.
Follow me on Twitter @RMABTweets for more Michigan (and Liverpool) Tweets. Tweet at me your thoughts! Or send me an e-mail at redsmaizeandblue@gmail.com.
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