For the second time this season, Michigan takes on Maryland. This game, the road trip for Michigan, is a big one for the Wolverines in terms of getting another Q1 quality win against a Maryland team who is reeling after coming off a big loss at Penn State, something Michigan knows all about. Maryland will look to both bounce back and avenge a road while Michigan will hope to get some additional momentum ahead of their trip to East Lansing.
Maryland -- An Overview:
Entering the game at 21-8 while sitting 12-6 in conference, Maryland, it could reasonably be said, has had a solid season thus far. While some Maryland fans may be disappointed in the job Mark Turgeon has done as of late with the program, this season's Terps are incredibly young. Entering the season, they were just one of the least-experienced teams in the entire country, but have spades of raw talent. Sitting currently at a five-seed according to Bracket Matrix in the NCAA Tournament, they also possess the four-seed in the Big Ten Tournament if the season were to end today, with a win keeping them right in the mix for the three-seed. They have six Q1 wins already with a 6-6 record against Q1 teams, but they suffer from a lack of non-conference top-quality wins. Of course, when playing in a conference like the Big Ten, sometimes you don't need that. A home win over Purdue in the month of February looks outstanding, as does a road win against Iowa. Their worst loss is at Madison Square Garden against Illinois, which is not a shameful loss at all as well. They sit 26th in NET ranking, which may hurt them in seeding time, but they still have plenty of time to turn things up a notch as the season comes to a near-close.
Starting Five:
Maryland is a strong team as a whole, but it really is a two-headed monster on their face. First and foremost is center Bruno Fernando. A 6'10" sophomore from Angola, Fernando has received plenty of early NBA Draft buzz, and with good reason. After a solid freshman year, Fernando has become absolutely dominant in the low post. The center is averaging a double-double, 14.2 points and 10.5 rebounds, per game and has improved his field-goal percentage from 57.8% last season on 6.8 attempts to 64.7% on 8.2 attempts. His free-throw percentage sits at an outstanding 76.7% for a big man. He's also a menace defensively as he approaches a two block per game average. Fernando is a rare breed of player that I think is ready to play in the NBA right now, even without improvement. While the free throw percentage will lead teams to believe, possibly rightly so, that Fernando's three-point shot can be developed, he is a high-energy, high-motor, 6'10" big man that rebounds strong and plays in the post well. There is a spot for that in the league just as much as there is for good shooters. His lowest-scoring point night was an eight-point, 23 minute outing against Loyola (IL) where he still went four-for-four from the field. Even when Michigan locked him down entirely in the first half of the first meeting to the tune of zero points, he still ended up with twelve points and eight rebounds in Ann Arbor. Jon Teske is going to have his hands full with Fernando, especially considering how there is likely going to be no help coming from off-ball defenders, especially when Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins are on the floor together. An incredible stat is that of his fourteen games of at least fourteen points, all but one were at home, the exception being the neutral site loss against Illinois. Fernando feeds off the Xfinity Center crowd, and that should help him perform against Michigan just that little bit better.
The second head of the attacking monster is guard Anthony Cowan. The 6'0" junior was a Third Team All-Conference and All-Defensive Team selection in the postseason awards last season, and has followed up those accolades with another strong season. Though perhaps not playing at the level he was last season, Cowan has not needed to with his supporting cast at hand. Cowan leads the team with 15.9 points per game to go with an additional team-high of 4.4 assists. While that point total is right around last season's mark, everything else is lower. He is shooting just 34.3% from three, down from 36.7% last season, and overall sits at 40.6% while taking 1.6 attempts more per game. He is shooting free throws substantially less than last season, which is shown by 1.3 attempts fewer from the line this season compared to last an FTR that dropped from 56.7% to just 36.1%, and an increase in shots per game from three. Generally, if Cowan's assist numbers are low, Maryland is much worse off. He recorded no assists in the loss against Penn State, two in the early-season loss to Seton Hall, and just three in losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. The Terps are 3-4 when Cowan records three or fewer assists, which points to just how important the support on this team is. Zavier Simpson is surely going to guard the lead guard, and that will be a crucial bout for all the reasons discussed. He quieted him in Ann Arbor to the tune of a four-for-twelve shooting night, just two-for-seven from three, with as many assists as turnovers. Another performance like that probably means Michigan is in solid position simply by way of forcing someone other than Cowan to create for others with the ball.
Supplementing the key two for the Terrapins is the first freshman to be discussed, Jalen Smith. A 6'10" power forward, Smith was 16th in the 2018 RSCI Top 100 and highly touted entering college. Smith has backed those rankings up with a strong first season at the Big Ten level. Skinnier than Fernando, but lankier, Smith is averaging 11.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. He offers a bit more of a serious threat from the perimeter than Fernando, but with a mark of just 25.5%, there is certainly still room to grow. That is a key phrase for Smith. Nicknamed 'Sticks', he is just (a listed) 215 pounds and has plenty of frame to bulk up upon. You may have drawn your eyes to the rebounding numbers, which are low for a 6'10" forward. Keep in mind, though, that Fernando grabbed just 6.5 rebounds per game as a freshman as well. He has been hot and cold this season. He went three-for-ten for eight points against Michigan, a struggle, but triumphed at Minnesota where he went seven-for-ten with 21 points. That could certainly be due to the mismatch, with the similarly built Daniel Oturu, or less-speedy Eric Curry generally a match-up for the Golden Gophers. The added mobility and surprising strength of Ignas Brazdeikis is going to have to keep Smith off balance on offense. It will be a bonus if Brazdeikis can beat Smith to the rim from the perimeter, or shoot over the impressively long wingspan.
A starter from nearly day one, Eric Ayala is the only other freshman in the starting line-up, but not the last freshman we will be discussing. A 6'5" point guard, Ayala offers size and poise despite his youth to the line-up. A top-100 recruit by all metrics, and even a near top-twenty point guard according to ESPN, he is not defined by just his ball-handling, but he can also play off the ball. As mentioned when discussed Cowan, though, Cowan sometimes can be asked to do too much with the ball on his own. Ayala is the top three-point shooter on this Maryland team, going for a 43% clip (46-for-107) with 8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. A strong ball-handler, Ayala is, at least seemingly, more comfortable simply shooting the rock. He shot 47.8% from three over the first twenty games of the season, this included an twelve-game stretch with just one game of no threes made, for a 52.3% average. Simply put, Ayala can shoot. Like the entire team, he struggled against Penn State, but Maryland as a whole went just two-for-nineteen against the Nittany Lions. That said, over the last four, he is just three-for-sixteen, all three coming in the same game, for a clip of 18.8% from deep. As a whole, with nine games of three or more threes, the key for Ayala in the present and future are both simple: presently, continue shooting well and get back into early-season form, but in the future, get ready to be the main point guard in this Maryland offense.
Rounding out the starting five is a 2017 top-100 recruit in guard Darryl Morsell. The sophomore stands 6'5" and offers a bit of everything to this Maryland team. Morsell is a tough defender and also working on improving his shot, which is where he found the most struggles last season. Going 3-for-25 last season (12%), Morsell has improved to 27.1% (13-for-48) with still room to grow. Turgeon mentioned to Blue Ribbon preseason how he was "playing with great confidence" and despite decreases in most per-game stats, the improved field-goal percentages combined with his consistent starting spot have made it very clear just how much Morsell is valued on this team. His EFG is up to 49% from just a shade over 43% last season and of his ten games with eight or more shots, he has shot at least 50% in eight of them. His improvement from three has been a good sign, but he will need to continue to improve from deep if he is going to do more than just scratch the surface of his offensive potential as a player.
Bench Rundown:
Mark Turgeon has, as of late, gone four-deep on his bench, with two playing quite heavily, and the other two getting spot minutes. The key sixth man, though, is 6'6" freshman guard Aaron Wiggins. Wiggins was ranked 41st in the 2018 RSCI Top 100 and named to the preseason Julius Erving Award Watch List for best collegiate small forward. His game has perhaps not been at that level of hype, but Wiggins has been an outstanding piece for Turgeon's Terps this season. Regardless, he is the key bench scorer, averaging 8.7 points per game, while also contributing 3.4 rebounds per game. He is a perfect fit for when going small, or he can hunt his own shots at the three regardless of line-up height. He is only behind Eric Ayala in three-point percentage (41.5%) and only behind Anthony Cowan in three-point attempts (135). He has had seventeen games this season with two or more three-pointers made, with a season-high coming against Michigan State where he went five-for-nine for fifteen points on the night. An obviously excellent shooter, he also has dabbled on the inside, but shooting just 36%, he is best suited continuing to snipe from long range. Wiggins is a great complementary piece to the offense. He does not need to constantly have the ball in his hands to create a play for himself, though he certainly can. A catch-and-shoot shooter is sometimes just what this Maryland side needs with the likes of Cowan, or while playing with two bigs. A smart player with outstanding athletic tools, look for him to be big for Maryland in the near, and distant, futures.
Also coming off the bench for key minutes is Serrel Smith Jr., another freshman. The 6'4" off guard came in under the radar when compared to the top-100 recruits of his class, but he has worked his way into becoming the seventh man for Maryland. Averaging 12.9 minutes, the same as Ricky Lindo, Smith plays an important role as another shooter off the bench, but he does so much more. Just nineteen, Smith can play solid defense on a multitude of guards with differing skill sets, and also get to the rim and finish. He is shooting almost 34% from three (20-for-59) but sits at 37.8% on the season thanks to a 43.6% mark from two. In terms of his offensive output, Smith has put up double-digit point totals four separate times this season, most recently a four-for-seven, fourteen point outing against Ohio State, marking his new season-high. He averages, on the season, four points per game while shooting a solid 84% from the free throw line. He has been one of the quieter pieces on this Maryland team, and that may continue next season too with the backlog of quality guards, but watch for him as an upperclassman to really come into his own with the Terrapins.
For wing depth, look no further than 6'8" Ricky Lindo. Lindo is a freshman who can spell Jalen Smith or Bruno Fernando and allow the other man to slide into the center position. Lanky and possessing a massive wingspan, Lindo is still raw, but one of the key players to watch in terms of player development for the future. He impressed in early-season workouts thanks to his athleticism combined with serious youth -- he is just eighteen -- but he has already become a key bench player having appeared in every game this season. He is shooting 37.5% from the field with 1.7 points per game, and most of his shots coming from two. He is two-for-ten from three, and that is likely a point of development, as is the current 50% mark from the free throw line. He has seriously impressed as a rebounder, however, as he averages 3.8 per game despite an under-thirteen minute per game average. His breakout performance was an eight-point, ten-rebound outing in 22 minutes against a solid Radford team, but he's yet to make more than two field goals in a game this season, and has only done so once in Big Ten play. The offensive improvements are likely to come with experience in-game.
Rounding out bench players is Joshua Tomaic, a 6'9" forward from Spain. A sophomore, Tomaic does not see huge minutes, but when in need of another big man off the bench, as of late, it has been the Spaniard. Tomaic played much more last season, interestingly, for Maryland off the bench, averaging 8.8 minutes last season, but down to just four per game this season. Having gone seven-for-fifteen from three last season, he has taken just one three, a miss, this season. He is yet to play double-digit minutes this season, however he has played in each of the last five games. Expect to see him briefly, if at all, against Michigan.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
With Charles Matthews likely set to miss, this game gets a lot more interesting for a multitude of reasons. For one, defensively, who will guard Aaron Wiggins? Isaiah Livers would be the logical option on the top wing-man for Maryland, but the question is also there of whether or not John Beilein would rather have his two biggest players against Maryland's two big men down low. Then, of course, who will pick up Matthews' slack offensively? Against Nebraska it was a team effort with Colin Castleton stepping up biggest. Against Maryland, though, will Castleton be thrown to the wolves? I think Brandon Johns up against Jalen Smith is a safer bet, but the fact is that as long as Bruno Fernando is in the game, so, too, will Jon Teske, barring serious exceptions like foul trouble or Fernando somehow beating him in stamina (which seems highly improbable). This seems to be a fairly straightforward game, with the added motivation for the Terrapins being that they have three separate games to avenge all rolled into one highly-emotional home bout against a top ten conference foe. A loss for Michigan sees them sweating a bit in terms of hoping for a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, but a win clinches a top-three seed for them. Three-point shooting and rebounding are the two keys. If Michigan can win both battles, they are set up well to get a win. Lose both, though, and things become much more difficult.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Maryland -- An Overview:
Entering the game at 21-8 while sitting 12-6 in conference, Maryland, it could reasonably be said, has had a solid season thus far. While some Maryland fans may be disappointed in the job Mark Turgeon has done as of late with the program, this season's Terps are incredibly young. Entering the season, they were just one of the least-experienced teams in the entire country, but have spades of raw talent. Sitting currently at a five-seed according to Bracket Matrix in the NCAA Tournament, they also possess the four-seed in the Big Ten Tournament if the season were to end today, with a win keeping them right in the mix for the three-seed. They have six Q1 wins already with a 6-6 record against Q1 teams, but they suffer from a lack of non-conference top-quality wins. Of course, when playing in a conference like the Big Ten, sometimes you don't need that. A home win over Purdue in the month of February looks outstanding, as does a road win against Iowa. Their worst loss is at Madison Square Garden against Illinois, which is not a shameful loss at all as well. They sit 26th in NET ranking, which may hurt them in seeding time, but they still have plenty of time to turn things up a notch as the season comes to a near-close.
Starting Five:
Maryland is a strong team as a whole, but it really is a two-headed monster on their face. First and foremost is center Bruno Fernando. A 6'10" sophomore from Angola, Fernando has received plenty of early NBA Draft buzz, and with good reason. After a solid freshman year, Fernando has become absolutely dominant in the low post. The center is averaging a double-double, 14.2 points and 10.5 rebounds, per game and has improved his field-goal percentage from 57.8% last season on 6.8 attempts to 64.7% on 8.2 attempts. His free-throw percentage sits at an outstanding 76.7% for a big man. He's also a menace defensively as he approaches a two block per game average. Fernando is a rare breed of player that I think is ready to play in the NBA right now, even without improvement. While the free throw percentage will lead teams to believe, possibly rightly so, that Fernando's three-point shot can be developed, he is a high-energy, high-motor, 6'10" big man that rebounds strong and plays in the post well. There is a spot for that in the league just as much as there is for good shooters. His lowest-scoring point night was an eight-point, 23 minute outing against Loyola (IL) where he still went four-for-four from the field. Even when Michigan locked him down entirely in the first half of the first meeting to the tune of zero points, he still ended up with twelve points and eight rebounds in Ann Arbor. Jon Teske is going to have his hands full with Fernando, especially considering how there is likely going to be no help coming from off-ball defenders, especially when Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins are on the floor together. An incredible stat is that of his fourteen games of at least fourteen points, all but one were at home, the exception being the neutral site loss against Illinois. Fernando feeds off the Xfinity Center crowd, and that should help him perform against Michigan just that little bit better.
The second head of the attacking monster is guard Anthony Cowan. The 6'0" junior was a Third Team All-Conference and All-Defensive Team selection in the postseason awards last season, and has followed up those accolades with another strong season. Though perhaps not playing at the level he was last season, Cowan has not needed to with his supporting cast at hand. Cowan leads the team with 15.9 points per game to go with an additional team-high of 4.4 assists. While that point total is right around last season's mark, everything else is lower. He is shooting just 34.3% from three, down from 36.7% last season, and overall sits at 40.6% while taking 1.6 attempts more per game. He is shooting free throws substantially less than last season, which is shown by 1.3 attempts fewer from the line this season compared to last an FTR that dropped from 56.7% to just 36.1%, and an increase in shots per game from three. Generally, if Cowan's assist numbers are low, Maryland is much worse off. He recorded no assists in the loss against Penn State, two in the early-season loss to Seton Hall, and just three in losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. The Terps are 3-4 when Cowan records three or fewer assists, which points to just how important the support on this team is. Zavier Simpson is surely going to guard the lead guard, and that will be a crucial bout for all the reasons discussed. He quieted him in Ann Arbor to the tune of a four-for-twelve shooting night, just two-for-seven from three, with as many assists as turnovers. Another performance like that probably means Michigan is in solid position simply by way of forcing someone other than Cowan to create for others with the ball.
Supplementing the key two for the Terrapins is the first freshman to be discussed, Jalen Smith. A 6'10" power forward, Smith was 16th in the 2018 RSCI Top 100 and highly touted entering college. Smith has backed those rankings up with a strong first season at the Big Ten level. Skinnier than Fernando, but lankier, Smith is averaging 11.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. He offers a bit more of a serious threat from the perimeter than Fernando, but with a mark of just 25.5%, there is certainly still room to grow. That is a key phrase for Smith. Nicknamed 'Sticks', he is just (a listed) 215 pounds and has plenty of frame to bulk up upon. You may have drawn your eyes to the rebounding numbers, which are low for a 6'10" forward. Keep in mind, though, that Fernando grabbed just 6.5 rebounds per game as a freshman as well. He has been hot and cold this season. He went three-for-ten for eight points against Michigan, a struggle, but triumphed at Minnesota where he went seven-for-ten with 21 points. That could certainly be due to the mismatch, with the similarly built Daniel Oturu, or less-speedy Eric Curry generally a match-up for the Golden Gophers. The added mobility and surprising strength of Ignas Brazdeikis is going to have to keep Smith off balance on offense. It will be a bonus if Brazdeikis can beat Smith to the rim from the perimeter, or shoot over the impressively long wingspan.
A starter from nearly day one, Eric Ayala is the only other freshman in the starting line-up, but not the last freshman we will be discussing. A 6'5" point guard, Ayala offers size and poise despite his youth to the line-up. A top-100 recruit by all metrics, and even a near top-twenty point guard according to ESPN, he is not defined by just his ball-handling, but he can also play off the ball. As mentioned when discussed Cowan, though, Cowan sometimes can be asked to do too much with the ball on his own. Ayala is the top three-point shooter on this Maryland team, going for a 43% clip (46-for-107) with 8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. A strong ball-handler, Ayala is, at least seemingly, more comfortable simply shooting the rock. He shot 47.8% from three over the first twenty games of the season, this included an twelve-game stretch with just one game of no threes made, for a 52.3% average. Simply put, Ayala can shoot. Like the entire team, he struggled against Penn State, but Maryland as a whole went just two-for-nineteen against the Nittany Lions. That said, over the last four, he is just three-for-sixteen, all three coming in the same game, for a clip of 18.8% from deep. As a whole, with nine games of three or more threes, the key for Ayala in the present and future are both simple: presently, continue shooting well and get back into early-season form, but in the future, get ready to be the main point guard in this Maryland offense.
Rounding out the starting five is a 2017 top-100 recruit in guard Darryl Morsell. The sophomore stands 6'5" and offers a bit of everything to this Maryland team. Morsell is a tough defender and also working on improving his shot, which is where he found the most struggles last season. Going 3-for-25 last season (12%), Morsell has improved to 27.1% (13-for-48) with still room to grow. Turgeon mentioned to Blue Ribbon preseason how he was "playing with great confidence" and despite decreases in most per-game stats, the improved field-goal percentages combined with his consistent starting spot have made it very clear just how much Morsell is valued on this team. His EFG is up to 49% from just a shade over 43% last season and of his ten games with eight or more shots, he has shot at least 50% in eight of them. His improvement from three has been a good sign, but he will need to continue to improve from deep if he is going to do more than just scratch the surface of his offensive potential as a player.
Bench Rundown:
Mark Turgeon has, as of late, gone four-deep on his bench, with two playing quite heavily, and the other two getting spot minutes. The key sixth man, though, is 6'6" freshman guard Aaron Wiggins. Wiggins was ranked 41st in the 2018 RSCI Top 100 and named to the preseason Julius Erving Award Watch List for best collegiate small forward. His game has perhaps not been at that level of hype, but Wiggins has been an outstanding piece for Turgeon's Terps this season. Regardless, he is the key bench scorer, averaging 8.7 points per game, while also contributing 3.4 rebounds per game. He is a perfect fit for when going small, or he can hunt his own shots at the three regardless of line-up height. He is only behind Eric Ayala in three-point percentage (41.5%) and only behind Anthony Cowan in three-point attempts (135). He has had seventeen games this season with two or more three-pointers made, with a season-high coming against Michigan State where he went five-for-nine for fifteen points on the night. An obviously excellent shooter, he also has dabbled on the inside, but shooting just 36%, he is best suited continuing to snipe from long range. Wiggins is a great complementary piece to the offense. He does not need to constantly have the ball in his hands to create a play for himself, though he certainly can. A catch-and-shoot shooter is sometimes just what this Maryland side needs with the likes of Cowan, or while playing with two bigs. A smart player with outstanding athletic tools, look for him to be big for Maryland in the near, and distant, futures.
Also coming off the bench for key minutes is Serrel Smith Jr., another freshman. The 6'4" off guard came in under the radar when compared to the top-100 recruits of his class, but he has worked his way into becoming the seventh man for Maryland. Averaging 12.9 minutes, the same as Ricky Lindo, Smith plays an important role as another shooter off the bench, but he does so much more. Just nineteen, Smith can play solid defense on a multitude of guards with differing skill sets, and also get to the rim and finish. He is shooting almost 34% from three (20-for-59) but sits at 37.8% on the season thanks to a 43.6% mark from two. In terms of his offensive output, Smith has put up double-digit point totals four separate times this season, most recently a four-for-seven, fourteen point outing against Ohio State, marking his new season-high. He averages, on the season, four points per game while shooting a solid 84% from the free throw line. He has been one of the quieter pieces on this Maryland team, and that may continue next season too with the backlog of quality guards, but watch for him as an upperclassman to really come into his own with the Terrapins.
For wing depth, look no further than 6'8" Ricky Lindo. Lindo is a freshman who can spell Jalen Smith or Bruno Fernando and allow the other man to slide into the center position. Lanky and possessing a massive wingspan, Lindo is still raw, but one of the key players to watch in terms of player development for the future. He impressed in early-season workouts thanks to his athleticism combined with serious youth -- he is just eighteen -- but he has already become a key bench player having appeared in every game this season. He is shooting 37.5% from the field with 1.7 points per game, and most of his shots coming from two. He is two-for-ten from three, and that is likely a point of development, as is the current 50% mark from the free throw line. He has seriously impressed as a rebounder, however, as he averages 3.8 per game despite an under-thirteen minute per game average. His breakout performance was an eight-point, ten-rebound outing in 22 minutes against a solid Radford team, but he's yet to make more than two field goals in a game this season, and has only done so once in Big Ten play. The offensive improvements are likely to come with experience in-game.
Rounding out bench players is Joshua Tomaic, a 6'9" forward from Spain. A sophomore, Tomaic does not see huge minutes, but when in need of another big man off the bench, as of late, it has been the Spaniard. Tomaic played much more last season, interestingly, for Maryland off the bench, averaging 8.8 minutes last season, but down to just four per game this season. Having gone seven-for-fifteen from three last season, he has taken just one three, a miss, this season. He is yet to play double-digit minutes this season, however he has played in each of the last five games. Expect to see him briefly, if at all, against Michigan.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
With Charles Matthews likely set to miss, this game gets a lot more interesting for a multitude of reasons. For one, defensively, who will guard Aaron Wiggins? Isaiah Livers would be the logical option on the top wing-man for Maryland, but the question is also there of whether or not John Beilein would rather have his two biggest players against Maryland's two big men down low. Then, of course, who will pick up Matthews' slack offensively? Against Nebraska it was a team effort with Colin Castleton stepping up biggest. Against Maryland, though, will Castleton be thrown to the wolves? I think Brandon Johns up against Jalen Smith is a safer bet, but the fact is that as long as Bruno Fernando is in the game, so, too, will Jon Teske, barring serious exceptions like foul trouble or Fernando somehow beating him in stamina (which seems highly improbable). This seems to be a fairly straightforward game, with the added motivation for the Terrapins being that they have three separate games to avenge all rolled into one highly-emotional home bout against a top ten conference foe. A loss for Michigan sees them sweating a bit in terms of hoping for a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, but a win clinches a top-three seed for them. Three-point shooting and rebounding are the two keys. If Michigan can win both battles, they are set up well to get a win. Lose both, though, and things become much more difficult.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Comments
Post a Comment