Michigan heads to Bryce Jordan Center to take on a bottom-place Penn State with a limited amount of wins. What seems like a straightforward game has been anything but in previous seasons, the primary exhibit of which being the 2012-13 season where a win-less Penn State team beat Michigan at home. Michigan will hope to beat a tough (as of late) Nittany Lions team away from home.
Penn State -- An Overview:
Penn State's defense has been its hallmark this season, but a 1-11 record in Big Ten play does not lend itself to showcasing your stats favorably. The Nittany Lions are the second-lowest rated offensive team based on Big Ten conference games. The defense still does sit firmly in the middle of the pack, at seventh place, through the conference season, but sits a slightly lower eighth place when factoring in all games. The first win for PSU in Big Ten play came in Evanston against the Northwestern Wildcats (the lowest-rated offensive team in conference play), but they have come close on several occasions. Their last six games have included that win, taking Purdue to overtime at home, losing by just one at Minnesota, and playing Ohio State close on the road and losing by just four. Their win at home over Virginia Tech is still slightly confounding considering that (when healthy) Virginia Tech had been a top ten team in the country. Their field goal percentage the last time Michigan played them was 41.7% and 293rd in the country. It has dropped to 40.9% and sits 323rd in the land. The offense absolutely must get better in order for Patrick Chambers to save his job.
Starting Five:
Penn State has shuffled starting line-ups quite heavily this season, especially recently, as they try to find one that works. One of two constants in the starting five has been junior Lamar Stevens. A 6'8" forward, he has been the standout for the Nittany Lions with a PORPAGATU! rating of 3.8, nearly a full point-and-a-half higher than any other player. His 36.4 minutes per game are top of the Big Ten by nearly two full minutes ahead of Purdue's Carsen Edwards. Perhaps with some direct correlation, he is averaging 18.9 points per game, which is second-highest in the Big Ten. His rebounding numbers have also been excellent this season with 7.9 per game, only Mike Watkins' eight per game nicking him out as top on the team. He has been the man on this Penn State team, and no further proof is needed than him jumping from 12.7 to 16.4 attempts per game from last season to this one without Tony Carr and Shep Garner on his side. The primary concern that still looms around the do-everything wing is three-point shooting as he has dropped this season to just 21.5% overall. If he can develop a three, see now further than his outing against Minnesota as proof to just how good he can be -- he scored 27 points with three-for-three shooting from deep. His free throw percentage of 78.1% on the seventh-most attempts in the Big Ten is also indication that a stroke from deep could be there to be uncovered. That is the last step in Stevens well-and-truly becoming a star in the Big Ten. Until that shot is uncovered, though, Ignas Brazdeikis can prepare for the drive, or the pull-up mid range jumper, from Stevens and help off him in the low post if need be. Facts are facts, despite the lack of a three-point shot, Stevens has twelve twenty-plus point games this season, and his lone outing in single digits was an eight point night against Iowa where he shot eighteen times. He is going to be dangerous regardless of his three-point shot, and Michigan constantly have to be alert on him.
The second ever-present man in the rotation has been senior Josh Reaves. The 6'4" guard is a defensive wizard, but more is surely wanted out of him on the offensive side of the ball. The team's top-shooting three-point specialist last season has dropped from 37.7% down to 32.2% this season. Both his two, three, and free throw percentages are all down from last season, and his points per game average is down 0.4 from last season to this as it stands at 10.2 per game. Still, his work elsewhere on the court is the reason for a minute total of 32.6 per game. The tough guard is averaging a career and Big Ten high in steals with 2.7 per game (a full steal ahead of Michigan State's Cassius Winston, who is second in the conference) for a total of 61 on the season, as well as a solid 4.6 rebounds per game to go with a team-high 3.3 assists. His offensive rating is the lowest of the starters at 95.3, and consistency as a scorer is a bit of a concern. You do not know if you will get the Northwestern version of Reaves (two points on one-for-five shooting in 24 minutes) or the Ohio State version (twenty points on nine-for-fifteen shooting in 37 minutes). What he is consistent in, however, is strong defense. He will be likely tasked with marking Jordan Poole, who exploded for seventeen against Penn State last time out. If Reaves can shut down Poole, I believe that things will look solid for the Nittany Lions. The tone needs to be set on defense by the senior leader.
Myles Dread was not a starter for the game against Michigan in Ann Arbor, nor the three before that. Immediately after that game, though, the 6'4" freshman guard has returned to the starting five in hopes to find another source of offense. From Detroit, Michigan, since returning to the starting five Dread has been back to being a fairly consistent scoring threat. Over the last nine (as a starter) Dread has averaged nearly thirty minutes per game with 9.2 points and 2.9 rebounds, the point total being 0.7 points higher than his season average. In addition, the freshman has seemed to find his shooter's touch with a three-point percentage of 40.4% on a fairly-high 6.3 attempts from distance. He does not get to the line much, shown by just five free throws in his last nine, but that is largely due to his role this season as a three-point shooter. He has taken exactly one hundred attempts more from three than from inside and is the team's leader in threes taken as well as threes made. His offensive rating, standing currently at 110.1, is the highest of any of the five starters by at least ten points and he serves as the team's marksman. I look for Charles Matthews to be in charge of shutting down Dread on the perimeter. I really like this match-up for Matthews as a player like Dread, who does not convincingly attack the rim at this stage of his collegiate career while taking a lot of threes, is someone that a perimeter defender like Matthews really should be able to shut down.
Usually interestingly, perhaps situationally, off the bench against Michigan and Purdue, redshirt junior Mike Watkins is another defensive force like Reaves. The center stands 6'9" and is an imposing post presence, as emphasized by his performance in Ann Arbor. The big man went eight-for-eleven for nineteen points and twelve rebounds in 26 minutes played. Watkins was an absolute force in the post and all season he has terrorized other sides with a strong 55.6% field goal percentage. Since a double-double against Michigan, the center has amassed three more and improved his block percentage up to nearly 8% while averaging 1.6 per game, actually a career-low. There are some stamina concerns, as he is yet to play thirty minutes this season, but the general consistency in terms of defending make him a massive (quite literally) threat. This game was really the first one that saw Jon Teske actually struggle in the low post against an opponent. He is going to look to rebound off of that. One thing I could not is perhaps helping off some players on the perimeter that are not as much of a threat from deep, like a Stevens or Jamari Wheeler, almost in a reverse of Wisconsin and Ethan Happ. Michigan generally does not like to help and will settle for giving up contested twos, but this might be a game to help onto the big man if he is once again lighting it up in the post.
Rounding out the two most recent starting fives for Penn State has been the aforementioned Jamari Wheeler. A 6'1" sophomore guard, Wheeler is another Penn State player who has been used off-and-on either as a starter or bench piece. Averaging three points, 2.9 rebounds, and two assists per game this season, Wheeler started the season as a starter, lost his spot to Rasir Bolton, but has since won it back. He has started the last seven games and averaged 23.6 minutes to go along with 2.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists over that stretch. Still, there is room to improve. I mentioned in my preview last time around that Wheeler has had some struggles from three, and those are still present. While improved from last season, he is still just a 23% shooter (6-for-28) on the season. Additionally, he is also only a 39% shooter from the free throw line (9-for-23) as well, which is usually a troubling sign when looking at the potential of a three point shooter. Thirty steals on the season helps prove his worth on the defensive end and his steal rate, at 3.7%, is behind just Reaves on the team. He provides quality defense, especially standing just over six feet tall, and really helps the side in that end.
Bench Rundown:
As a result of trying to find pieces to stick, Penn State has recently been going five-deep in terms of at least seeing the court. Rasir Bolton has become the key man off the bench for Penn State. A 6'2" freshman, the point guard is going through the freshman woes, which has been largely responsible for him returning to a sixth man role. Shooting 43.7% from three before the first meeting of these two sides, Bolton has since been just under 24% dropping his season average down to just under 37%. Following a one-for-nine night against Nebraska, Bolton lost his starting role and played just six minutes against Michigan State, including giving up a pair of big threes on the defensive end. He has since rebounded in terms of minutes, but not yet in regards to scoring efficiency. His last three games have seen him score eighteen on sixteen shots, then fourteen on fourteen, and most recently fifteen on twelve. He is the Nittany Lions' second-highest usage player on the team, and that results in the freshman seeing a ton of shots in general. He is averaging twelve points per game but just 1.6 assists, which you surely want more from considering the offense will be running through his hands consistently by next season. Bolton is still a dangerous threat, but when he checks in I expect Zavier Simpson to lock him up as he did last time around, in which the freshman had more turnovers (7) than points (6) and went zero-for-three from deep.
Penn State's first big off the bench has generally been John Harrar, as of late. Harrar is a 6'9" sophomore forward who has made ten starts this season and has played double-figure minutes in every game this season. He has generally been the starter when Mike Watkins was either suspended or came off the bench for strategic reasons. He's shooting nearly 52% from the field this season, and is doing so with just one three point attempt on the year. He is averaging 3.2 points and 3.7 rebounds per game this season, but those numbers drop a full point and rebound when just looking at games in 2017. He has seen some foul trouble this season, but as the first big off the bench he plays a valuable in spelling Watkins when the big man is in need of a break, or perhaps in foul trouble himself. Look for Jon Teske to try and work against him to his advantages by forcing him to give chase around the perimeter on pick-and-pops. This is a game where I think that could play into the hands of Michigan's big skilled center.
Made eligible for the second half of the season is freshman Kyle McCloskey. The 6'5" guard was once a quarterback for Villanova, but he decided to transfer to Penn State to play basketball. Since becoming eligible this season, he has been a consistent fixture off the bench for Patrick Chambers. His 'coming out party' was an eighteen minute night against Michigan State where, despite only taking one shot, he snagged three rebounds. Since then he has scored in every appearance he's made but the game against Ohio State. Over his Big Ten career, he is averaging 1.7 points and 1.3 rebounds in just over ten minutes per game, over seven appearances. He is five-for-eleven from the field this season, but just two-for-six from the free throw line. Chambers gave him credit from transforming his body from that of a basketball player to that of a football player, and his hard work is paying off in the form of minutes with a team that desperately needs someone to make an impact.
The final two members of Penn State's bench are two players who have lately been playing bit minutes for PSU. Trent Buttrick is a 6'8" sophomore who featured as a starting forward against Michigan and played ten minutes. Since that game against Michigan, he has yet to make another start and has been a DNP in one of the nine games since then. He's shooting 22.2% over that stretch with less than a point, but his role has been generally to serve as a physically tough presence on the court. Still, shooting just 29.6% from three (8-for-27) from downtown when the majority of his shots are from there is a bit of a disappointment. Myreon Jones is a 6'3" freshman guard who came off the bench for Penn State against Michigan and can score in just about any way off the bench. The issue with that, though, has been needing to find his collegiate legs under him. He has shot just 26% this season with a 24.5% mark from beyond the three-point line. Since the Michigan game, he is shooting only 15.8% while averaging 1.3 points per game. Both Buttrick and Jones have averaged about eight-and-a-half minutes per game since the first showdown between these two teams.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
The key is going to be to avoid getting trapped in this game. An advantage of playing the away game second is that Michigan has seen what Penn State can throw at them in the comfort of their own home. The keys to the game are two-fold, and while very broad, I will break them down. First, is focusing in on key Penn State threats. Michigan knows that Lamar Stevens is one of the best players in the conference. They know what Mike Watkins can do down low. They know that Myles Dread has been shooting well from three. The key then becomes understanding how to stop them on offense. I outlined the fact that Michigan may be able to help on Watkins, who brutalized them last meeting down low. Something else that could happen is if Stevens is catching fire, putting Charles Matthews on him for a spell and seeing if Ignas Brazdeikis can chase Dread around the perimeter. What you want to do, though, is to go into the first half with a clear understanding of the game plan, then go out and execute and make adjustments at the half if need be. The second key is breaking down Penn State on defense. Identifying weak match-ups for Penn State is going to be tricky, but it is possible. Matthews is coming off a great second half against Wisconsin and went six-for-eleven for fourteen points against Penn State last time out. He is a candidate to have a big game. Likewise, Zavier Simpson could also do well if Rasir Bolton does indeed play thirty minutes as he had previously against Michigan, as well as in other recent games. The overarching theme is to exploit the match-ups held in favor of the Wolverines. If that can be done, Michigan will be able to walk out of State College victory in tow. If not, they run the risk of letting the Nittany Lions hang around in the game and perhaps getting upset. They will need full mental readiness to avoid a disaster in the (Happy) Valley.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Penn State -- An Overview:
Penn State's defense has been its hallmark this season, but a 1-11 record in Big Ten play does not lend itself to showcasing your stats favorably. The Nittany Lions are the second-lowest rated offensive team based on Big Ten conference games. The defense still does sit firmly in the middle of the pack, at seventh place, through the conference season, but sits a slightly lower eighth place when factoring in all games. The first win for PSU in Big Ten play came in Evanston against the Northwestern Wildcats (the lowest-rated offensive team in conference play), but they have come close on several occasions. Their last six games have included that win, taking Purdue to overtime at home, losing by just one at Minnesota, and playing Ohio State close on the road and losing by just four. Their win at home over Virginia Tech is still slightly confounding considering that (when healthy) Virginia Tech had been a top ten team in the country. Their field goal percentage the last time Michigan played them was 41.7% and 293rd in the country. It has dropped to 40.9% and sits 323rd in the land. The offense absolutely must get better in order for Patrick Chambers to save his job.
Starting Five:
Penn State has shuffled starting line-ups quite heavily this season, especially recently, as they try to find one that works. One of two constants in the starting five has been junior Lamar Stevens. A 6'8" forward, he has been the standout for the Nittany Lions with a PORPAGATU! rating of 3.8, nearly a full point-and-a-half higher than any other player. His 36.4 minutes per game are top of the Big Ten by nearly two full minutes ahead of Purdue's Carsen Edwards. Perhaps with some direct correlation, he is averaging 18.9 points per game, which is second-highest in the Big Ten. His rebounding numbers have also been excellent this season with 7.9 per game, only Mike Watkins' eight per game nicking him out as top on the team. He has been the man on this Penn State team, and no further proof is needed than him jumping from 12.7 to 16.4 attempts per game from last season to this one without Tony Carr and Shep Garner on his side. The primary concern that still looms around the do-everything wing is three-point shooting as he has dropped this season to just 21.5% overall. If he can develop a three, see now further than his outing against Minnesota as proof to just how good he can be -- he scored 27 points with three-for-three shooting from deep. His free throw percentage of 78.1% on the seventh-most attempts in the Big Ten is also indication that a stroke from deep could be there to be uncovered. That is the last step in Stevens well-and-truly becoming a star in the Big Ten. Until that shot is uncovered, though, Ignas Brazdeikis can prepare for the drive, or the pull-up mid range jumper, from Stevens and help off him in the low post if need be. Facts are facts, despite the lack of a three-point shot, Stevens has twelve twenty-plus point games this season, and his lone outing in single digits was an eight point night against Iowa where he shot eighteen times. He is going to be dangerous regardless of his three-point shot, and Michigan constantly have to be alert on him.
The second ever-present man in the rotation has been senior Josh Reaves. The 6'4" guard is a defensive wizard, but more is surely wanted out of him on the offensive side of the ball. The team's top-shooting three-point specialist last season has dropped from 37.7% down to 32.2% this season. Both his two, three, and free throw percentages are all down from last season, and his points per game average is down 0.4 from last season to this as it stands at 10.2 per game. Still, his work elsewhere on the court is the reason for a minute total of 32.6 per game. The tough guard is averaging a career and Big Ten high in steals with 2.7 per game (a full steal ahead of Michigan State's Cassius Winston, who is second in the conference) for a total of 61 on the season, as well as a solid 4.6 rebounds per game to go with a team-high 3.3 assists. His offensive rating is the lowest of the starters at 95.3, and consistency as a scorer is a bit of a concern. You do not know if you will get the Northwestern version of Reaves (two points on one-for-five shooting in 24 minutes) or the Ohio State version (twenty points on nine-for-fifteen shooting in 37 minutes). What he is consistent in, however, is strong defense. He will be likely tasked with marking Jordan Poole, who exploded for seventeen against Penn State last time out. If Reaves can shut down Poole, I believe that things will look solid for the Nittany Lions. The tone needs to be set on defense by the senior leader.
Myles Dread was not a starter for the game against Michigan in Ann Arbor, nor the three before that. Immediately after that game, though, the 6'4" freshman guard has returned to the starting five in hopes to find another source of offense. From Detroit, Michigan, since returning to the starting five Dread has been back to being a fairly consistent scoring threat. Over the last nine (as a starter) Dread has averaged nearly thirty minutes per game with 9.2 points and 2.9 rebounds, the point total being 0.7 points higher than his season average. In addition, the freshman has seemed to find his shooter's touch with a three-point percentage of 40.4% on a fairly-high 6.3 attempts from distance. He does not get to the line much, shown by just five free throws in his last nine, but that is largely due to his role this season as a three-point shooter. He has taken exactly one hundred attempts more from three than from inside and is the team's leader in threes taken as well as threes made. His offensive rating, standing currently at 110.1, is the highest of any of the five starters by at least ten points and he serves as the team's marksman. I look for Charles Matthews to be in charge of shutting down Dread on the perimeter. I really like this match-up for Matthews as a player like Dread, who does not convincingly attack the rim at this stage of his collegiate career while taking a lot of threes, is someone that a perimeter defender like Matthews really should be able to shut down.
Usually interestingly, perhaps situationally, off the bench against Michigan and Purdue, redshirt junior Mike Watkins is another defensive force like Reaves. The center stands 6'9" and is an imposing post presence, as emphasized by his performance in Ann Arbor. The big man went eight-for-eleven for nineteen points and twelve rebounds in 26 minutes played. Watkins was an absolute force in the post and all season he has terrorized other sides with a strong 55.6% field goal percentage. Since a double-double against Michigan, the center has amassed three more and improved his block percentage up to nearly 8% while averaging 1.6 per game, actually a career-low. There are some stamina concerns, as he is yet to play thirty minutes this season, but the general consistency in terms of defending make him a massive (quite literally) threat. This game was really the first one that saw Jon Teske actually struggle in the low post against an opponent. He is going to look to rebound off of that. One thing I could not is perhaps helping off some players on the perimeter that are not as much of a threat from deep, like a Stevens or Jamari Wheeler, almost in a reverse of Wisconsin and Ethan Happ. Michigan generally does not like to help and will settle for giving up contested twos, but this might be a game to help onto the big man if he is once again lighting it up in the post.
Rounding out the two most recent starting fives for Penn State has been the aforementioned Jamari Wheeler. A 6'1" sophomore guard, Wheeler is another Penn State player who has been used off-and-on either as a starter or bench piece. Averaging three points, 2.9 rebounds, and two assists per game this season, Wheeler started the season as a starter, lost his spot to Rasir Bolton, but has since won it back. He has started the last seven games and averaged 23.6 minutes to go along with 2.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists over that stretch. Still, there is room to improve. I mentioned in my preview last time around that Wheeler has had some struggles from three, and those are still present. While improved from last season, he is still just a 23% shooter (6-for-28) on the season. Additionally, he is also only a 39% shooter from the free throw line (9-for-23) as well, which is usually a troubling sign when looking at the potential of a three point shooter. Thirty steals on the season helps prove his worth on the defensive end and his steal rate, at 3.7%, is behind just Reaves on the team. He provides quality defense, especially standing just over six feet tall, and really helps the side in that end.
Bench Rundown:
As a result of trying to find pieces to stick, Penn State has recently been going five-deep in terms of at least seeing the court. Rasir Bolton has become the key man off the bench for Penn State. A 6'2" freshman, the point guard is going through the freshman woes, which has been largely responsible for him returning to a sixth man role. Shooting 43.7% from three before the first meeting of these two sides, Bolton has since been just under 24% dropping his season average down to just under 37%. Following a one-for-nine night against Nebraska, Bolton lost his starting role and played just six minutes against Michigan State, including giving up a pair of big threes on the defensive end. He has since rebounded in terms of minutes, but not yet in regards to scoring efficiency. His last three games have seen him score eighteen on sixteen shots, then fourteen on fourteen, and most recently fifteen on twelve. He is the Nittany Lions' second-highest usage player on the team, and that results in the freshman seeing a ton of shots in general. He is averaging twelve points per game but just 1.6 assists, which you surely want more from considering the offense will be running through his hands consistently by next season. Bolton is still a dangerous threat, but when he checks in I expect Zavier Simpson to lock him up as he did last time around, in which the freshman had more turnovers (7) than points (6) and went zero-for-three from deep.
Penn State's first big off the bench has generally been John Harrar, as of late. Harrar is a 6'9" sophomore forward who has made ten starts this season and has played double-figure minutes in every game this season. He has generally been the starter when Mike Watkins was either suspended or came off the bench for strategic reasons. He's shooting nearly 52% from the field this season, and is doing so with just one three point attempt on the year. He is averaging 3.2 points and 3.7 rebounds per game this season, but those numbers drop a full point and rebound when just looking at games in 2017. He has seen some foul trouble this season, but as the first big off the bench he plays a valuable in spelling Watkins when the big man is in need of a break, or perhaps in foul trouble himself. Look for Jon Teske to try and work against him to his advantages by forcing him to give chase around the perimeter on pick-and-pops. This is a game where I think that could play into the hands of Michigan's big skilled center.
Made eligible for the second half of the season is freshman Kyle McCloskey. The 6'5" guard was once a quarterback for Villanova, but he decided to transfer to Penn State to play basketball. Since becoming eligible this season, he has been a consistent fixture off the bench for Patrick Chambers. His 'coming out party' was an eighteen minute night against Michigan State where, despite only taking one shot, he snagged three rebounds. Since then he has scored in every appearance he's made but the game against Ohio State. Over his Big Ten career, he is averaging 1.7 points and 1.3 rebounds in just over ten minutes per game, over seven appearances. He is five-for-eleven from the field this season, but just two-for-six from the free throw line. Chambers gave him credit from transforming his body from that of a basketball player to that of a football player, and his hard work is paying off in the form of minutes with a team that desperately needs someone to make an impact.
The final two members of Penn State's bench are two players who have lately been playing bit minutes for PSU. Trent Buttrick is a 6'8" sophomore who featured as a starting forward against Michigan and played ten minutes. Since that game against Michigan, he has yet to make another start and has been a DNP in one of the nine games since then. He's shooting 22.2% over that stretch with less than a point, but his role has been generally to serve as a physically tough presence on the court. Still, shooting just 29.6% from three (8-for-27) from downtown when the majority of his shots are from there is a bit of a disappointment. Myreon Jones is a 6'3" freshman guard who came off the bench for Penn State against Michigan and can score in just about any way off the bench. The issue with that, though, has been needing to find his collegiate legs under him. He has shot just 26% this season with a 24.5% mark from beyond the three-point line. Since the Michigan game, he is shooting only 15.8% while averaging 1.3 points per game. Both Buttrick and Jones have averaged about eight-and-a-half minutes per game since the first showdown between these two teams.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
The key is going to be to avoid getting trapped in this game. An advantage of playing the away game second is that Michigan has seen what Penn State can throw at them in the comfort of their own home. The keys to the game are two-fold, and while very broad, I will break them down. First, is focusing in on key Penn State threats. Michigan knows that Lamar Stevens is one of the best players in the conference. They know what Mike Watkins can do down low. They know that Myles Dread has been shooting well from three. The key then becomes understanding how to stop them on offense. I outlined the fact that Michigan may be able to help on Watkins, who brutalized them last meeting down low. Something else that could happen is if Stevens is catching fire, putting Charles Matthews on him for a spell and seeing if Ignas Brazdeikis can chase Dread around the perimeter. What you want to do, though, is to go into the first half with a clear understanding of the game plan, then go out and execute and make adjustments at the half if need be. The second key is breaking down Penn State on defense. Identifying weak match-ups for Penn State is going to be tricky, but it is possible. Matthews is coming off a great second half against Wisconsin and went six-for-eleven for fourteen points against Penn State last time out. He is a candidate to have a big game. Likewise, Zavier Simpson could also do well if Rasir Bolton does indeed play thirty minutes as he had previously against Michigan, as well as in other recent games. The overarching theme is to exploit the match-ups held in favor of the Wolverines. If that can be done, Michigan will be able to walk out of State College victory in tow. If not, they run the risk of letting the Nittany Lions hang around in the game and perhaps getting upset. They will need full mental readiness to avoid a disaster in the (Happy) Valley.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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