GAME PREVIEW: Minnesota v. Michigan

Always a tough venue, 'The Barn' welcomes Michigan in as the Wolverines hope to avoid the ultimate trap ahead of a massive showdown back in Ann Arbor against their in-state rival. Standing at 17-9, Minnesota are on the NCAA Tournament bubble at the moment and a home win would do wonders in solidifying their resume. 

Minnesota -- An Overview: 
Last time Michigan saw Minnesota, they were 14-4 with three wins in the Big Ten. Since then, they have found some success, but a four-game losing streak over an incredibly tough stretch, including three of the toughest road games in all the conference (Michigan State, Purdue, and Nebraska) along with hosting Wisconsin, have dampened the mood. Regardless, between those games, they have continued Indiana's misery, topped a ranked Iowa team, and played both Michigan and Nebraska tough. Still, their resume leaves some wanting for the NCAA Selection Committee, surely. They sit 46th in KenPom and 51st in NET, and are 3-7 in Q1 games, though all five of their remaining games are Q1 or Q2 games which is a golden opportunity to improve their standing with the committee. A road win at Wisconsin looks better and better as the season goes along, and a neutral site victory over Washington will look good as long as the Huskies remain the Pac-12's lone dominant team. They have just two Q2 losses, and none by Q3 or Q4 teams, and one of those losses is an away loss at Illinois which could certainly be bumped up given the Illini's play. BracketMatrix has them as the lowest-ten seed in their February 19th update as 112 of the 117 brackets accumulated have them in the tournament. As previously mentioned, a big win would do wonders for their tournament resume.

Starting Five: 
When it comes to Golden Gopher stars, the key man on the court will be senior forward Jordan Murphy. While not named to the top-twenty Wooden Award Watch List, the 6'7" four-year starter was previously on the list, and with good reason. Averaging fifteen points and nearly twelve rebounds (his rebound total per game leads the Big Ten by well over a full board) the big man has seen a drop-off in stat totals to this season from last, but he is still the go-to man in the offense. Murphy wove his way into foul trouble against Michigan with four fouls, which held him to just 28 minutes against Michigan, so avoiding foul trouble will be key for the senior this time around. Another fun fact about Murphy is that, for a long stretch of this season, he was the Big Ten's free throw attempt leader. He has taken 195 this season, good for an average of 7.5 per game, but he is currently behind Nebraska's James Palmer. He's coming off a big night against Indiana as he went seven-for-eleven with 23 points, thanks in large part to going nine-for-thirteen from the free throw line. His ability to finish at the line with a percentage hovering just a little under 70% makes it so difficult to guard the big man cleanly with the fear of him hitting both of his free throws. Murphy does, however, still struggle from three as he is just four-for-seventeen (23.5%) from outside. An average of 2.7 assists highlights his ability to find teammates, but it is without question his scoring ability that has to be the primary concern for any team playing the Gophers. The key will be strong play down low against him by Jon Teske, and ideally looking to get him in quick foul trouble for the second meeting in a row. An x-factor could be getting offensive mismatches like Murphy guarding Jordan Poole on the top of the key as well. That would potentially allow Poole to drive past, or shoot over, the forward. 

The offensive deputy, or perhaps '1B' option, is still junior Amir Coffey. Coffey is taller than Murphy at 6'8", but he plays guard, making him incredibly difficult to play against for a huge amount of teams. Coffey is leading the Gophers in points per game with 15.3, and he also contributes 3.2 boards and 3.1 assists to his side's cause as well. He is struggling a bit from the field, shooting a shade under 44% on the season and just 31.8% from three (down greatly from 36.8% from last season) but where he gets teams is his athleticism and ability to get to the rim. That said, Coffey's last four games have been rather rough as he has shot 36.8% with just a 10.3 point per game average. He has found a serious return to form, like multiple Minnesota players, with the Indiana victory as the junior went five-for-twelve from the field, but three-for-six from three with eighteen points and seven assists. That was his third straight game with three triples and he's six-for-eleven in his last two. That is certainly something to watch out for as if Coffey gets his shot from distance going, the Golden Gophers will be in very good shape. Coffey was covered by Charles Matthews for most stretches of the last meeting between these two sides and he was held to four-for-eleven shooting with eleven points and zero assists despite playing 35 minutes. Quieting him once again has to be a priority for Michigan, especially if Murphy avoids the foul trouble he encountered last game. 

Perhaps a surprise for those out of the loop in terms of underrated Big Ten players, freshman Gabe Kalscheur has started all 26 games for Minnesota and plays a key offensive role. Standing 6'4", the guard is the key three-point marksman for the Golden Gophers. He is their leading shooter in terms of attempts, and the freshman is maintaining a 40% mark on the season. Nearly a hero in the last meeting, Kalscheur drilled a three that tied the game at 57 before Matthews' buzzer-beater sent Minnesota home disappointed. Averaging 10.5 points per game is no small feat as a freshman, and he is coming off two big games in the last three as well, going six-for-eight from three with twenty points against Indiana, then going three-for-four from long distance with seventeen points against Michigan State. A direct quote from my last preview that I just find incredible for showing Kalscheur's influence on the Minnesota team as a whole is this, 

"An incredible stat is that Minnesota has won every game that Kalscheur has simply attempted six or more threes. Not made, attempted. This, to me, implies that if Minnesota is finding space for the shooter, then they are finding space elsewhere even if he has a night like his zero-for-eight shooting game vs. North Florida or two-for-six for eight points against Texas A&M."

Michigan proved to be the exception to that rule (he went three-for-seven against the Wolverines) but they are the lone exception as Minnesota are 11-1 when he takes six or more threes on the season. Zavier Simpson will surely be guarding Kalscheur and not allowing him any space to get shots off is key to throwing a wrench in Minnesota's offensive game plan 

Starting in every game he has played in, which is 25 of the 26 games this season, is guard Dupree McBrayer. A 6'5" senior, McBrayer provides, as I mentioned in my last Minnesota preview, serious on-court leadership for Richard Pitino's team. He is not the biggest offensive weapon on the court at any given time, but his ability to run point guard makes him even more valuable than his solid 9.4 point per game average implies. Additionally, he is also sitting at 3.1 assists per game, a career-high for the second four-year starter on this squad. With a double-double against Rutgers to his name, fifteen points and ten assists, his offensive impact is notable. With that said, it can still certainly be improved upon. This season he is shooting just 29.4% from three, lower than either of the past two seasons, while taking more shots from deep than ever. Since that Rutgers game, McBrayer is stuck in a ten-game stretch of shooting 22.2% from three and just 40.5% from two, down from a 48% season average, for a total FG% of 31.5%. That span includes just one game with double-figure scoring, ten points against, you guessed it, Indiana. His last three games have been marked improvements, but still, perhaps a key for the rest of his season will be to get to the rim with some added frequency as opposed to looking, or settling, for three-point jumpers. 

The final starter for the Gophers team is looking likely to be forward Daniel Oturu. Oturu is a 6'10" center who returned to the starting five after losing his spot for a brief spell, but once again proving his worth off the bench. A freshman phenom, Oturu has been a starter for the past three games once again after Eric Curry went down with calf soreness. The young big man is averaging 10.8 points and seven rebounds per game on 56.5% shooting, all but one shot coming from twos. The issues for Oturu is learning to defend without fouling. He was limited to just ten minutes against Michigan in the first meeting with four fouls, and Oturu fouled out in only thirteen minutes against Indiana. Ten games have seen Oturu with four or five fouls, only one of those was a foul-out, however. With six double-doubles on the season, he is a menace on the boards despite being substantially lankier than his fellow starter, or Curry for that matter. He is someone to keep watch for in the future, but even in the present, games like his nine-for-fifteen shooting, nineteen point outing against Purdue are more than enough to warrant keeping an eye on as a result. 

Bench Rundown: 
The bench rotation has been mixed as of late for Richard Pitino as he tries to find something that will stick. Eric Curry is the man who Oturu lost the starting spot to, but now it is Curry coming off the bench once again. Injured for a substantial portion of the early season, the 6'9" redshirt sophomore is a forward who started against Michigan and played thirty minutes. Curry missed a pair of games with a calf injury, but he returned against Indiana to play twenty minutes off the bench. As a starter, which Curry made five appearances as, he shot 43.8% with 3.8 points and 2.8 rebounds per game. He also hit his lone three of the season against Michigan, otherwise he is zero-for-eight from beyond the arc. In his return, he was one-for-four with two points, two assists, and three rebounds. He is a smart and physical presence down low, but what you see is truly what you get out of Curry. Expect him to be the first man off the bench, provided all is well in terms of his health. 

With the rotation, one man who has seen a recent increase in minute is Brock Stull. The 6'4" grad transfer guard has played in three straight games where he has seen double-digit minutes, including a season-high 24 in the loss to Michigan State. Currently sitting at an even ten minute per game average, Stull has perhaps not been the scoring bench piece Minnesota was hoping for, but his experience does help guide the team on the court. In the ten games he has played since a 22 minute outing against Wisconsin where he went two-for-two from three, he has only shot 10% with just six attempts from three (where his lone make was from). Indeed, despite the extended play time in the past three games, only in his season-high minute outing did he get the first points since that game against Wisconsin. He has the ability -- I know as I saw him live over Milwaukee's pair of Horizon League Tournament games last season -- but the tougher level has flummoxed him up to this point.

Especially with Curry hurt for a pair of games, Matz Stockman has seen his own increase in minutes as well. The 7'0" redshirt sophomore recorded a DNP against Michigan in Ann Arbor, but the center has seen double-figure minutes in three games since that one. The Louisville transfer is averaging 2.7 points and 1.9 rebounds per game this season in 9.6 minutes per game. His biggest game of the season was a sixteen-minute, six point and three rebound game against Michigan State. He performs in the bigger games it seems, as the center scored eight points in seventeen minutes against Washington earlier this season as well. He's shooting 56.3% from the field, entirely from within the arc, and he is four-for-six in the last three outings. Look for him to spell either big man when they need a breather in the game. 

Minnesota has three more players that could factor in off the bench. The most likely of those is freshman Jarvis Omersa. The 6'6" wing is a highlight in warm-ups for his athleticism, but he has not seen a ton of game-time minutes. That said, he has been a key benefactor in the rotation shake-up as he has had a stretch of three games with at least six minutes played. Regardless, the freshman still has not scored since December 11th against North Florida, a stretch of sixteen point-less games where he has gone a combined zero-for-eight, four of those coming in his next appearance after that game, and the other four coming in the past two games. He's 8-for-26, all but one of those shots coming inside the arc, for a percentage of 30.8% on the season with less than a point per game. The other potential player we could see is junior Michael Hurt. A 6'7" forward, Hurt's play time has been fairly inconsistent this season, but he is more a scoring threat than Omersa at this point. He averages 1.9 points per game with 1.3 rebounds on a 15-for-32 mark. His splits are a stark contrast as he is 70% (fourteen-for-twenty) from two, but just 8.3% (one-for-twelve) from three. Finally, if you know Minnesota basketball, you'll notice there is one name I have yet to mention. Isaiah Washington is a sophomore guard who sat out last game with a tailbone injury. Once thought of as a breakout star, the 6'1" guard was held to just one shot in twelve minutes against Michigan, and was limited to just two minutes his last time out against Nebraska. He's shooting just under 31%, and just 20.5% from three, for 4.7 points and (a more impressive) 3.2 assists per game. He appears to be questionable to play, but his production has been limited in conference play. If he's held out, expect Dupree McBrayer to run the show at point guard with Stull getting similarly extensive minutes as he has as of late. 

Pre-Game Thoughts: 
The key for Michigan this game is centrally mental. It is vital to avoid getting lured into looking ahead to the top-ten rivalry meeting that awaits them this weekend, and instead focus on the task in front of them. The worry of going on the road is always a concern, especially in a competitive conference like the Big Ten, but Minnesota has brought multiple disappointments in the past for Michigan, but also many triumphs -- see, for example, the 2011 victory that essentially clinched an NCAA Tournament berth for Michigan that season thanks to 22 points on eleven shots from Tim Hardaway Jr. When it comes to Michigan this season, however, two points are key: offensive firepower and shutting down either the role players or key players for Michigan. On the road, Michigan will not have the luxury of being able to go over four minutes down the stretch to allow Minnesota to tie the game up. Likewise, though, there is a good chance that Michigan will also not get a 23-3 run to give them the opportunity to go that long without scoring for. Secondly, Michigan's been able to, in a vast majority of games won, either shut down the role players of a team, or the stars, or in some exceptional games, both. It is all about doing one or the other to start with, though. All three of Minnesota's "stars" hit double-figure points in the last meeting, but the role players being held to minimal damage was able to save Michigan from a home loss. They will likely be not as lucky, though, if the same happens and the role players are given the sort of freedom they were at Crisler Center. This will be a tough task for the Wolverines, but a road victory would be huge in building confidence ahead of the Michigan State weekend clash. That cannot go underrated by this Michigan side. 

Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!

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