Michigan gets their first chance at a revenge win for one of their two losses this season as they welcome the #19 Wisconsin Badgers into Crisler Center. Michigan are undefeated against ranked teams this season and have yet to lose at home this season. Wisconsin provides a different task than the other teams that have been ranked and welcomed to Ann Arbor, Michigan will hope to avenge their first loss of the season.
Wisconsin -- An Overview:
The Badgers kicked off a six-game winning streak with the win over Michigan at the Kohl Center. This streak has included trips, and subsequent victories, to Minnesota and Nebraska while also beating a ranked Maryland team at home. The Badgers have been lock-down on defense as well with the maximum total of points allowed over the stretch being just 61 against those Terrapins. Sitting at 17-6 on the season, they have jumped into a tie for third-place in the conference standings at 9-3, sitting level with Michigan State as they have lost three games in eleven days. Currently ranked 11th in KenPom standings with the eighth-best defense in the country, they remain as slow-tempo as ever ranked at 342nd of the 353 teams in terms of pace of play. This is, however, arguably, their toughest test of the season thus far. They went on the road and pushed Purdue to overtime earlier this season, but the Badgers will hope to do one better and win at an arena that only Purdue has won at in the past two seasons. They are still an elite shooting team, shooting 39.7% on the season, which is tenth best in the country. They are also 39.4% in Big Ten play, which is good for second in the country. They are, perhaps, better than when Michigan saw them in Madison, but their composition is more-or-less the same.
Starting Five:
The Badgers' big man in the post, senior Ethan Happ, remains the key man to watch. The 6'10" senior only continues to add to his legacy at Wisconsin as one of the best players to wear red and white for them. Happ took nearly 50% of his teams shots against Michigan (22 out of 45) while putting up 26 points. He really served as a one-man wrecking crew as Michigan did well to clamp down, for the most part, on any other key role player for the Badgers. Since then, Happ has gotten himself a triple-double against Northwestern and even despite a slight drop-off in recent production -- only averaging thirteen points per game in the last five -- he continues to have eye-popping numbers for a center. He is averaging 18.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. These averages are good for fifth, third, and third, respectively, in the conference. He has also become the Big Ten's leader in field goals made with 186. His footwork around the rim provides a massive concern for Jon Teske who, despite his quickness on the perimeter, has struggled in the post against the bigger and quicker Happ. With Michigan usually unwilling to help, they become more-or-less unable to help off the vast majority of players (barring Khalil Iverson when on the court) as a result of their abilities to shoot the three. It is going to be up to Teske to win the match-up in the paint, or at least slow Happ down. If he can do so, Michigan is in a great position to get a better result in the game.
Option number two for Wisconsin remains one of the best shooters in the Big Ten in D'Mitrik Trice. Trice is a 6'0" sophomore guard that has been outstanding from deep, and has continued his solid performances as the team continues to win. He's the Big Ten's top three-point shooter (among eligible players) with a 44.7% average from deep on 132 attempts. Still just a sophomore as a result of his injury last season, Trice heavily struggled against Michigan. He went just two-for-ten and zero-for-three from three for six points. Zavier Simpson was able to do an exceptional job in shutting him down, but it is going to be key for him to do so again. Over the last five his shooting is up to 46.2% while averaging 11.6 points per game, which is down from his seasonal average of 13.4. He is actually also the team leader in minutes per game with 32.8, while averaging 10.7 attempts per game. One of the conference's better players, and a lovely success story as a bounce-back from his injury, the key is to force him to attempt to get going from two. Despite the loss, Michigan were surely happy with forcing Trice to struggle from deep and also go just two-for-seven inside the arc as well. Simpson will need to do more of the same against the lead guard.
Since their last meeting, Brad Davison continues to perform at a supremely high level. The 6'3" sophomore guard is firmly in double-figure scoring as a seasonal average as he sits at 11.2 points per game on 43% shooting exactly from both two and three. Following a slow-ish start to the season, things have heated up for Davison, who is sitting on a five-game stretch of double-digit scoring and eight-in-nine with double figures, as he was held to eight by Jordan Poole and Michigan. Since the Michigan game, he has kept up the shooting percentage aided greatly by going 44.4% from three, even going just 33.3% from two during this span. This shows to me that the drive may not be working as much as it was earlier in the season, and the shots from deep are still falling. I would expect Poole to guard Davison yet again with the hopes that as a lankier defender, Poole can hinder the drive while also altering any threes that the guard may take.
Nate Reuvers is the fourth option for this Wisconsin team on offense, and the sophomore forward continues to impress with his versatility. Standing at 6'11", Reuvers went for nine points on four-for-eight shooting, including a three, against the Wolverines at home. Reuvers can go off the dribble from around the perimeter, which makes him supremely dangerous as a big that can shoot. He had a huge night at Illinois, going for 22 points and ten rebounds on a seven-for-eleven shooting night with two threes. He is shooting 39.7% from three on the season, 54.8% from two, and 49% overall, which is more impressive when you consider 58 of his 151 attempts have been from deep. His match-up for Michigan is one I think is most important for the game, that being Ignas Brazdeikis vs. Reuvers. Brazdeikis put up zero points against Wisconsin in Madison and is surely going to be hungry to avenge that. The bigger Reuvers will also present a tough task for the freshman on defense, but keeping in front of his man and closing out strong on him will be a necessity in terms of play.
Rounding out the starting five is a piece of lesser importance in the scoring equation, but still a provider of solid minutes in Khalil Iverson. The 6'5" senior forward played just nine minutes against Michigan the first time around, but he offers more than just scoring. An athletic forward, Iverson plays smart and high-quality defense while he seems set to start his 56th straight game over his entire junior and senior (thus far) campaigns. In nearly twenty minutes per game, Iverson has averaged 6.6 points and 3.2 rebounds per game in the last five while shooting nearly 62% from two, where all but four of his shots this season have come from. On the season, he is shooting 54.1% from two while also more recently showing off some more offensive skills. He has gone for twelve points and seven rebounds against Illinois while also accumulating eight points and six rebounds in Lincoln against Nebraska. He offers something of a change of pace from a three-point oriented offense that the guards provides, or the back-you-down style of Happ in the post. Instead, Iverson positions himself very well generally with strong court awareness as he runs the baseline and hunts for easy buckets.
Bench Rundown:
As the season has developed, there are three players that consistently feature off the bench for the Badgers. Brevin Pritzl is a redshirt junior who has played in every game this season, and featured for at least twenty minutes in the last three. Standing at 6'3" and having started 21 games last season, he offers experience and an ability to play point guard or the off guard, depending on the personnel. Despite playing just ten minutes against Michigan, in the five games after he has averaged 21.4 minutes with 5.4 points and three rebounds per game. He has been helped greatly by the fact that he is shooting 70% from three over his last five games, with just two shots from two. He has only taken either two or three shots in each of the five games, but that is a certain sign of maturity from the veteran who understands his role within the offense. Expect Greg Gard to turn to him off the bench in hopes that his hot shooting can continue for his Badgers.
The lone big off the bench, barring foul trouble, has been Aleem Ford for this Wisconsin side. Ford is a 6'8" sophomore forward who has, like Pritzl, seen a drop in importance in role from this season to last, but still figures heavily into the Badger game plan. Ford was a bench piece who came up clutch for the Badgers against Michigan in the first game with nine points and two-for-three shooting from three. Since then, he has had four games of zero points, and one of four-for-six shooting, two-for-four from three, and ten points against Maryland. He has been largely cold aside from that one games since the Michigan victory, shooting 20% overall, and 13.3% from three over the last five. This includes going zero-for-seven, and zero-for-five from three, in nineteen minutes at Nebraska. Wisconsin has been good even with his minimal contributions. In order for Wisconsin to upset Michigan on their own court, though, it will likely need a solid bit of contribution from its lone key bench big.
The final bench piece for these Badgers is redshirt freshman Kobe King. King was essential to the side in Madison against the Badgers as the 6'4" guard played 31 minutes and went two-for-two from three against Michigan. Since that game, King has seen a sizable drop in involvement within the offense. He is averaging 4.2 points per game, a drop from just six games ago where he averaged 5.1 per game, largely as a result of scoring less than a point per game in his last five. He has taken just three shots, one missed three and two made twos, and is currently averaging fifteen minutes exactly in the last five. The question of whether or not he will play similar amounts of time this time around against the Wolverines is yet to be answered, but the recent trend would imply the answer to be no.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
I have similar concerns about this game as I did about the road meeting Michigan had with this Wisconsin team. I think Wisconsin's style as a team translates over well to the road as the slow pace and heavy post presence of Ethan Happ is able to neutralize hostile crowds, and they have a roster full of guys that can hit a big shot or two from three. That said, Michigan did quite well on all the surrounding pieces to Ethan Happ. The problem was that Michigan allowed a little to a lot of players. Michigan allowed just five threes, four of them were to players off the bench. The other was to Nate Reuvers. Getting the more bit players involved is going to be key when any team's second or third options are shut down like D'Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison were. We saw this to a greater extent in the Iowa game, where players like Ryan Kreiner and Nicholas Baer were given freedom when the guards were shut down. The three key match-ups are evident for me: Zavier Simpson vs. D'Mitrik Trice, Jon Teske vs. Ethan Happ, and Ignas Brazdeikis vs. Nate Reuvers. Simpson must limit Trice yet again from three, Teske must slow Happ to an at least manageable level, and Brazdeikis needs to find something getting to the basket past Reuvers. One thing in the Brazdeikis match-up to watch could be the improved shooting of the Canadian from three. He struggled against Minnesota as well, but in the last four he is twelve-for-nineteen from three. Wisconsin is stellar at defending the three, they sit third in the conference, but there are few teams like Michigan in the Big Ten that can stretch a team's big men out like Michigan. The freshman needs to show confidence in his shot. That will be key for the Michigan Wolverines in staving off another upset.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Wisconsin -- An Overview:
The Badgers kicked off a six-game winning streak with the win over Michigan at the Kohl Center. This streak has included trips, and subsequent victories, to Minnesota and Nebraska while also beating a ranked Maryland team at home. The Badgers have been lock-down on defense as well with the maximum total of points allowed over the stretch being just 61 against those Terrapins. Sitting at 17-6 on the season, they have jumped into a tie for third-place in the conference standings at 9-3, sitting level with Michigan State as they have lost three games in eleven days. Currently ranked 11th in KenPom standings with the eighth-best defense in the country, they remain as slow-tempo as ever ranked at 342nd of the 353 teams in terms of pace of play. This is, however, arguably, their toughest test of the season thus far. They went on the road and pushed Purdue to overtime earlier this season, but the Badgers will hope to do one better and win at an arena that only Purdue has won at in the past two seasons. They are still an elite shooting team, shooting 39.7% on the season, which is tenth best in the country. They are also 39.4% in Big Ten play, which is good for second in the country. They are, perhaps, better than when Michigan saw them in Madison, but their composition is more-or-less the same.
Starting Five:
The Badgers' big man in the post, senior Ethan Happ, remains the key man to watch. The 6'10" senior only continues to add to his legacy at Wisconsin as one of the best players to wear red and white for them. Happ took nearly 50% of his teams shots against Michigan (22 out of 45) while putting up 26 points. He really served as a one-man wrecking crew as Michigan did well to clamp down, for the most part, on any other key role player for the Badgers. Since then, Happ has gotten himself a triple-double against Northwestern and even despite a slight drop-off in recent production -- only averaging thirteen points per game in the last five -- he continues to have eye-popping numbers for a center. He is averaging 18.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. These averages are good for fifth, third, and third, respectively, in the conference. He has also become the Big Ten's leader in field goals made with 186. His footwork around the rim provides a massive concern for Jon Teske who, despite his quickness on the perimeter, has struggled in the post against the bigger and quicker Happ. With Michigan usually unwilling to help, they become more-or-less unable to help off the vast majority of players (barring Khalil Iverson when on the court) as a result of their abilities to shoot the three. It is going to be up to Teske to win the match-up in the paint, or at least slow Happ down. If he can do so, Michigan is in a great position to get a better result in the game.
Option number two for Wisconsin remains one of the best shooters in the Big Ten in D'Mitrik Trice. Trice is a 6'0" sophomore guard that has been outstanding from deep, and has continued his solid performances as the team continues to win. He's the Big Ten's top three-point shooter (among eligible players) with a 44.7% average from deep on 132 attempts. Still just a sophomore as a result of his injury last season, Trice heavily struggled against Michigan. He went just two-for-ten and zero-for-three from three for six points. Zavier Simpson was able to do an exceptional job in shutting him down, but it is going to be key for him to do so again. Over the last five his shooting is up to 46.2% while averaging 11.6 points per game, which is down from his seasonal average of 13.4. He is actually also the team leader in minutes per game with 32.8, while averaging 10.7 attempts per game. One of the conference's better players, and a lovely success story as a bounce-back from his injury, the key is to force him to attempt to get going from two. Despite the loss, Michigan were surely happy with forcing Trice to struggle from deep and also go just two-for-seven inside the arc as well. Simpson will need to do more of the same against the lead guard.
Since their last meeting, Brad Davison continues to perform at a supremely high level. The 6'3" sophomore guard is firmly in double-figure scoring as a seasonal average as he sits at 11.2 points per game on 43% shooting exactly from both two and three. Following a slow-ish start to the season, things have heated up for Davison, who is sitting on a five-game stretch of double-digit scoring and eight-in-nine with double figures, as he was held to eight by Jordan Poole and Michigan. Since the Michigan game, he has kept up the shooting percentage aided greatly by going 44.4% from three, even going just 33.3% from two during this span. This shows to me that the drive may not be working as much as it was earlier in the season, and the shots from deep are still falling. I would expect Poole to guard Davison yet again with the hopes that as a lankier defender, Poole can hinder the drive while also altering any threes that the guard may take.
Nate Reuvers is the fourth option for this Wisconsin team on offense, and the sophomore forward continues to impress with his versatility. Standing at 6'11", Reuvers went for nine points on four-for-eight shooting, including a three, against the Wolverines at home. Reuvers can go off the dribble from around the perimeter, which makes him supremely dangerous as a big that can shoot. He had a huge night at Illinois, going for 22 points and ten rebounds on a seven-for-eleven shooting night with two threes. He is shooting 39.7% from three on the season, 54.8% from two, and 49% overall, which is more impressive when you consider 58 of his 151 attempts have been from deep. His match-up for Michigan is one I think is most important for the game, that being Ignas Brazdeikis vs. Reuvers. Brazdeikis put up zero points against Wisconsin in Madison and is surely going to be hungry to avenge that. The bigger Reuvers will also present a tough task for the freshman on defense, but keeping in front of his man and closing out strong on him will be a necessity in terms of play.
Rounding out the starting five is a piece of lesser importance in the scoring equation, but still a provider of solid minutes in Khalil Iverson. The 6'5" senior forward played just nine minutes against Michigan the first time around, but he offers more than just scoring. An athletic forward, Iverson plays smart and high-quality defense while he seems set to start his 56th straight game over his entire junior and senior (thus far) campaigns. In nearly twenty minutes per game, Iverson has averaged 6.6 points and 3.2 rebounds per game in the last five while shooting nearly 62% from two, where all but four of his shots this season have come from. On the season, he is shooting 54.1% from two while also more recently showing off some more offensive skills. He has gone for twelve points and seven rebounds against Illinois while also accumulating eight points and six rebounds in Lincoln against Nebraska. He offers something of a change of pace from a three-point oriented offense that the guards provides, or the back-you-down style of Happ in the post. Instead, Iverson positions himself very well generally with strong court awareness as he runs the baseline and hunts for easy buckets.
Bench Rundown:
As the season has developed, there are three players that consistently feature off the bench for the Badgers. Brevin Pritzl is a redshirt junior who has played in every game this season, and featured for at least twenty minutes in the last three. Standing at 6'3" and having started 21 games last season, he offers experience and an ability to play point guard or the off guard, depending on the personnel. Despite playing just ten minutes against Michigan, in the five games after he has averaged 21.4 minutes with 5.4 points and three rebounds per game. He has been helped greatly by the fact that he is shooting 70% from three over his last five games, with just two shots from two. He has only taken either two or three shots in each of the five games, but that is a certain sign of maturity from the veteran who understands his role within the offense. Expect Greg Gard to turn to him off the bench in hopes that his hot shooting can continue for his Badgers.
The lone big off the bench, barring foul trouble, has been Aleem Ford for this Wisconsin side. Ford is a 6'8" sophomore forward who has, like Pritzl, seen a drop in importance in role from this season to last, but still figures heavily into the Badger game plan. Ford was a bench piece who came up clutch for the Badgers against Michigan in the first game with nine points and two-for-three shooting from three. Since then, he has had four games of zero points, and one of four-for-six shooting, two-for-four from three, and ten points against Maryland. He has been largely cold aside from that one games since the Michigan victory, shooting 20% overall, and 13.3% from three over the last five. This includes going zero-for-seven, and zero-for-five from three, in nineteen minutes at Nebraska. Wisconsin has been good even with his minimal contributions. In order for Wisconsin to upset Michigan on their own court, though, it will likely need a solid bit of contribution from its lone key bench big.
The final bench piece for these Badgers is redshirt freshman Kobe King. King was essential to the side in Madison against the Badgers as the 6'4" guard played 31 minutes and went two-for-two from three against Michigan. Since that game, King has seen a sizable drop in involvement within the offense. He is averaging 4.2 points per game, a drop from just six games ago where he averaged 5.1 per game, largely as a result of scoring less than a point per game in his last five. He has taken just three shots, one missed three and two made twos, and is currently averaging fifteen minutes exactly in the last five. The question of whether or not he will play similar amounts of time this time around against the Wolverines is yet to be answered, but the recent trend would imply the answer to be no.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
I have similar concerns about this game as I did about the road meeting Michigan had with this Wisconsin team. I think Wisconsin's style as a team translates over well to the road as the slow pace and heavy post presence of Ethan Happ is able to neutralize hostile crowds, and they have a roster full of guys that can hit a big shot or two from three. That said, Michigan did quite well on all the surrounding pieces to Ethan Happ. The problem was that Michigan allowed a little to a lot of players. Michigan allowed just five threes, four of them were to players off the bench. The other was to Nate Reuvers. Getting the more bit players involved is going to be key when any team's second or third options are shut down like D'Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison were. We saw this to a greater extent in the Iowa game, where players like Ryan Kreiner and Nicholas Baer were given freedom when the guards were shut down. The three key match-ups are evident for me: Zavier Simpson vs. D'Mitrik Trice, Jon Teske vs. Ethan Happ, and Ignas Brazdeikis vs. Nate Reuvers. Simpson must limit Trice yet again from three, Teske must slow Happ to an at least manageable level, and Brazdeikis needs to find something getting to the basket past Reuvers. One thing in the Brazdeikis match-up to watch could be the improved shooting of the Canadian from three. He struggled against Minnesota as well, but in the last four he is twelve-for-nineteen from three. Wisconsin is stellar at defending the three, they sit third in the conference, but there are few teams like Michigan in the Big Ten that can stretch a team's big men out like Michigan. The freshman needs to show confidence in his shot. That will be key for the Michigan Wolverines in staving off another upset.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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