One of the most thrilling in-state rivalries in the nation, in recent memory, rears around yet again as Michigan hosts Michigan State at the Crisler Center at 3:45 PM on Sunday, to be broadcast on national television. The teams have met fourteen times while ranked in the AP Poll, seven of those coming in 2012-14, and they are split 7-7. Michigan hold a 5-3 advantage when the sides are ranked under John Beilein, and the pair have split the two games played when both teams were in the top ten. Since Stu Douglass' shot in 2011 to save Michigan's 2010-11 campaign, and give Michigan their first win in East Lansing since the Fab Five era, Michigan are 9-7 in the rivalry. Of course, records can be thrown out the window once the referee throws the jump ball to tip things off in Ann Arbor.
Michigan State -- An Overview:
The Spartans come in 22-5 and 13-3 in the Big Ten, good for a tie for first place with the Wolverines, and a half-game ahead of the Purdue Boilermakers. This record has not come without some complications. Joshua Langford was injured in the thirteenth game of the season, the final non-conference tie against Northern Illinois, and has been ruled out for the season. Then, against Ohio State, Nick Ward broke part of his hand and has been ruled out from three-to-five weeks. Michigan State, despite these setbacks, has generally been able to roll through their schedule. Despite an opening setback against Kansas, and a loss on the road to Louisville in overtime that saw Cassius Winston foul out, their offense has proven to be a genuine juggernaut. Currently sitting fourth in KenPom, and seventh in the Torvik T-Rank, even in defeat it took them till a sloppy victory over Ohio State to drop below 100 in offensive efficiency. Even then they finished at a 98.7. They sit first in conference three-point defense as well allowing just 29.4% of opposing shots to drop, while their overall field-goal percentage of 53.8% is top in the conference. That said, they are not perfect, and a three-game stretch in the conference proved that. The Spartans lost at Purdue, at home in front of a crowd that had hosted College Gameday that morning, and then at Illinois in a little over two weeks. They have rebounded well, including with a win at Wisconsin, but falling seven behind at the half against Rutgers at home is not the most welcome sign as well. Regardless, for all these reasons and then some, Michigan State are an absolute force.
Starting Five:
Especially now with two of the other three key players out for Michigan State, the load will fall upon junior point guard Cassius Winston to carry the team. Standing at 6'0", Winston was not the first option on last year's team, and perhaps that allowed him to slip under some teams' radars. Not this season, and yet he has still been able to put up incredible numbers. Named to the mid-season Naismith Award Watch List, the mid-season Wooden Award Watch List, as well as a top ten contender for the Bob Cousy Point Guard of the Year Award, Winston has taken the number one option role and ran with it. Winston leads the Spartans in minutes by far with 33 played per game. He also leads them in points per game (18.9 -- a total good for fourth in the Big Ten) and leads the Big Ten in assists with 7.4 per game, a total good for fourth in the entire country. A deadly marksman from deep, Winston is 43.4% from three and 49% from two. His pull-up two is near-automatic, and he enjoys shooting in transition rhythm almost as much as a wide-open three. He has scored in single-digits just once this season, an eight-point outing against Iowa where he still dropped twelve assists. This season he has more double-digit assist games (five) than he does of five or fewer (four). Now that you understand the strengths, the weaknesses must also be acknowledged. Winston has yet to be a premier defensive point guard. He also still turns the ball over quite heavily, averaging 2.8 per game. No preview would be complete as well without mentioning the job Zavier Simpson has done on him in their previous two meetings as starting point guards as well. Winston went a combined six-for-seventeen with eleven points and three made field goals in each outing. In the first meeting, he was impressively held to just two assists, and committed four turnovers, though that improved to five assists and one turnover in the Big Ten Tournament bout. This is obviously not the same Winston as last season, but I would also note that this is an even better defensive Simpson as well this season. Tough defensive pressure forced Winston to commit nine turnovers against Illinois. The Spartans are just 3-2 in games where he has committed five or more turnovers, the other loss being to Kansas. With Winston as the clear number one option against Rutgers, he scored 28 points with eight assists on eight-for-seventeen shooting (three-for-eight from three). These numbers could certainly be more efficient, but they are the numbers of a top player in the conference, and indeed the nation. Winston needs to be reigned in by Simpson, but that is not the lone thing the Wolverines need to do in order to win.
Option number two, currently, for Michigan State has been one of the Big Ten's most improved players in senior Matt McQuaid. It would sound incredibly peculiar to say to someone even just early last season that McQuaid would be the Spartans' best defender, but that would be the truth. After missing a couple early-season games due to injury, McQuaid has been back and better than ever, putting together a senior season full of highlights. He is averaging just 8.9 points per game, but his 44.1% three-point percentage speaks to his value on offense. This has been a career-defining season for the 6'4" guard. Not only is his defense improving but the three-point percentage is the highest it has ever been, which is impressive given his fame for being a key shooter for the Spartans. That shooting is key for the Spartans and he has a similar stat to Michigan State as Gabe Kalscheur does to Minnesota. Of the four Spartans losses McQuaid has played in (having missed Louisville due to the aforementioned injury) three of those came when McQuaid took three or fewer shots. When he's available, they are 6-3 with that criteria. This highlights, to me, that cutting off any space the wing-man has to shoot in is absolutely essential in beating this team. Charles Matthews is likely the man to guard McQuaid, given his level of importance for this Michigan State team without two of their key weapons. McQuaid is, in fact, just 36.5% from two and is only averaging 2.6 attempts inside the arc per game. If Matthews, or whomever is on McQuaid at a given time, can close him down quickly and off the three-point line, that will go a long way in stymieing the Michigan State offense.
Redshirt senior Kenny Goins is a favorite for head coach Tom Izzo, and it is not too difficult to see why. Described preseason by Izzo as "the perfect stretch four" according to him, the 6'7" power forward matches up excellently with plenty of teams' power forwards. Big enough to cover a stronger four, yet quick enough to hang with a faster opponent, Goins is playing over 28 minutes per game, third-most on the team among available players. Goins joins Winston as the only other player to start all 27 games this season. He has seen a big jump in productivity as a senior as he has gone from an occasional starter as a sophomore, to an afterthought as a junior, to now seeing a jump from a career-high 3.2 points per game up to this season's mark of 7.2 per game. Not only that, but his rebounding makes him a massive factor to any game even when he is not scoring. Goins is averaging nine rebounds per game, and 2.3 of those are offensive boards. A great example of this importance is in thirty minutes against Louisville, Goins did not take a single shot and missed his lone free throw attempt. And yet, he finished with seventeen rebounds, a career-high. Part of the reason he is now the perfect stretch four, according to Izzo, is his ability to take, and hit, threes. He is shooting 34.1% on the season (28-for-82) with a seasonal high of three threes made in four separate games. The key with Goins is consistency. His double-figure point total games number one fewer than amount of games where he has hit just one field goal in the entire forty minutes. Ignas Brazdeikis needs to be strong against Goins and not be afraid to take him inside. Likewise, he needs to be up to the task of covering the bruising forward on the interior as well. Being prepared for everything is a necessity for the freshman.
Starting in place of the injured Nick Ward is going to be Xavier Tillman. The 6'8" sophomore is actually a power forward by nature, but the slightly bigger man than Goins is going to start at the five until Ward is back and healthy. Tillman's start to the season was red hot. The sixth man was averaging 21.4 minutes per game to go with 8.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and a 69.4% field goal percentage (71.7% from two). He has continued to build off those numbers as he currently averages 8.7 points, but has dropped to seven rebounds per game, with a FG% of 61.5% now on the season. Like Goins, Tillman is huge on the glass as he too averages 2.3 offensive rebounds per game. He has one offensive rebound more on the season than his teammate Goins, but the two of them together on the blocks will surely frustrate the Wolverines. Something that Tillman has been doing this season is testing the water from three, but to middling success. He is four-for-twenty (20%) on the season, and is yet to have a game with multiple made threes. He has made two starts this season, both at center, the most recent being, of course, against Rutgers, and he has performed well in both of them. He went five-for-six with thirteen points in 27 minutes against Illinois, and he went seven-for-twelve with nineteen points (second-high on the team) and twelve rebounds in 33 minutes against Rutgers. He is going to be asked to play big minutes with Ward out, and Jon Teske is a tough match-up for him. I'll look for him to test Teske from three at some point, but I do not think that Michigan will be hurrying to cover him if he gets a moderately open three. If he can actually get on the block and bang down low with the Michigan center, then Michigan will have to accept it. A fun fact! Our mothers played basketball at Michigan together where they combined to lead Michigan's women's basketball program to their first NCAA Tournament victory ever. My mother, Carol Szczechowski, as a junior, scored 21 points on eight-for-thirteen shooting. His mother, Tanya Powell, a senior on that team, played all forty minutes and scored nineteen points on just seven attempts with twelve rebounds. They were both All Second Team Big Ten selections at some point in their careers. Not too bad at all!
Rounding out the starting five would figure to be wing Aaron Henry. The 6'6" freshman was figured since the start of the season to be the most likely of the MSU freshmen to make an impact on the team, but it is still a bit of a surprise for him to be a starter. Averaging 18.5 minutes, 4.7 points, and 3.2 rebounds per game, Henry is a fantastic athlete who can get to the rim and finish well. He is shooting 54.2% from two and has multiple high-flying dunks to his name. What Michigan State would surely like to see going forward is better range from three, he is just six-for-twenty (30%) from deep this season, but the promise he has shown already is a huge reason for excitement for the team's coaching staff. One of the positives in terms of starting Henry is the fact that there is a tailor-made sixth-man in Kyle Ahrens, but he is now questionable for the meeting with a re-aggrevated back injury. Michigan could be the first time Henry has played in a game with neither Langford nor Ahrens available for the Spartans. This could mean that Henry gets serious playtime once again for the first time in a couple of games. He has played at least thirty minutes in two games this season in conference play, but the Spartans have, interestingly, lost both of them. Henry needs to provide a jolt on offense against Michigan for the Spartans to be able to play up to their potential against the Wolverines.
Bench Rundown:
As I mentioned when discussing Aaron Henry, Kyle Ahrens is questionable for the game Sunday. He sat out of practice on Thursday, and no news has broken since regarding the senior guard's availability. I strongly believe he will play, but I'll give a slightly more brief rundown of Ahrens. Touching very briefly upon Ahrens, he is a redshirt senior who sat out all of last year due to a broken foot. Athletic when healthy, Ahrens is shooting 63.3% from two, and just 30.6% from three. Despite this, he is known more as someone who can take and make the three for Michigan State, generally off the bench. His top game this season was an impressive 41 minute outing against Louisville where he went six-for-ten with three threes for fifteen points. That game stands as the most shots he's taken this season, most threes made, and most points scored, along with, obviously, most minutes in a game. Averaging 5.5 points and 2.7 rebounds per game, Ahrens would be a big miss for Michigan State, whose bench would consist of entirely freshmen if he were to miss out on Sunday.
Freshman Thomas Kithier has played ten minutes in each of the last two games, and eighteen in the game before against Minnesota, and that extended play time would figure to continue with Nick Ward injured. That game against Minnesota served as a bit of a breakout for Kithier, who went five-for-six with eight points and three rebounds. Once thought of as a redshirt candidate, due in no small part to missing his entire senior season of high school due to an 'athletically motivated' transfer to Clarkston, the 6'8" forward or center is now playing a key role off the bench. He is fourteen-for-eighteen (77.8%) on the season from the field, and has reeled in 31 rebounds this season. The rebounding is something coach Tom Izzo would surely like to be improved upon, but that should certainly improve as he continues to go up against better opposition. His last three games have seen him go six-for-seven with a combined twelve points in 38 minutes of play. These are solid, and promising, numbers for a freshman who continues to get his feet wet.
If Ahrens is set to indeed be a miss, expect wing Gabe Brown to get his minutes as he did earlier this season. When Ahrens was a miss against Penn State and Nebraska earlier this season, the 6'7" wing saw over twenty minutes in both of those two games. He went a combined two-for-nine with three points and four rebounds in both of the two games. Without Ahrens against Purdue, he also played twelve minutes, but went zero-for-four with a pair of free throws. Those rough, but learning, early experiences could turn out to be huge now. On the season, Brown has been quite good shooting, with a 42.1% stroke overall. He has taken 29 shots from three (shooting 37.9%) while taking just nine from inside (55.6%). A good shooter with good size, his future prospects look very bright. For now, though, the extended play time has not yet proven to be fruitful for Brown as in games of double-digit minute tallies, he is just a combined two-for-fifteen.
The back-up point guard for Cassius Winston is Clarkston freshman Foster Loyer. Having played in every game this season but one, the 6'0" 2018 Michigan Mr. Basketball is a similar sort of player to Winston: fantastic passer, great shooter, weak defender. Right now, the shots are not falling for Loyer yet either at the college level. Loyer is shooting just 22.2% from three (four-for-eighteen) on the season and is at 40.6% on the year overall. He was recently entrusted with eleven minutes against Penn State, and despite going just one-for-four from three, Loyer finished with a solid seven points. The key is next going to be to be getting those minutes for the back-up point guard to allow him to play through his struggles. His 24 assists to fourteen turnovers is rather solid for the freshman already, but if he really is going to be more than just a back-up, he needs to be able to prove himself more on the court with end results.
Marcus Bingham Jr. is the final man that could see time off the bench. The 6'11" power forward, or center, is just a freshman and was, perhaps even more so than Kithier, an early-season redshirt candidate for the side. It was decided that he would not, and he has seen time in nineteen games with a high of ten minutes against Tennessee Tech. He is five-for-twenty (25%) on the season, all five makes coming from three, for a cumulative twenty points on the year. He could be a match-up problem for Michigan, but I don't expect to see him on the court unless Kithier and another big get into foul trouble.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
I have three keys to the game here. So let's run through them.
1. Role players: This one is crucial. Michigan State, with their current roster make-up, is Cassius Winston, Matt McQuaid, and five or six other guys that are hot-and-cold. The consistency of the role players like Kenny Goins and Xavier Tillman has been, well, inconsistent. Zavier Simpson can lock up Winston and hold him to eleven points again, sure, but that may not matter if Winston's distribution to wing shooters like McQuaid, or Aaron Henry, or Kyle Ahrens, if available, is still on point and the shooters are on. Watching the pick-and-pop and avoiding unneeded help and double-teams is going to be vital for Michigan all-around.
2. The two bigs: Speaking of Tillman and Goins, let's talk about the two bigs. Michigan has had tastes of that with Minnesota and Maryland as the last two games, and they were covered well. So what do they need to do here? Well first and foremost, Goins is the biggest threat to step outside from three of the two MSU bigs, or either of the four main big men that Michigan saw previously. Ignas Brazdeikis is going to draw the match-up on him, and he will need to watch out for screening actions and pops to the top of the key, something the freshman knows all about already. Hedging on Winston, but getting back in time to stop a pass to an open Goins is going to be necessary for Brazdeikis. Tillman can try to bruise Jon Teske down low, but that may not be worth the Spartans' time. It would be, however, if they dump the ball in and perhaps attempt to either lure Michigan into doubling (not too likely) or setting up off-ball action to free up a shooter on the outside. Additionally, getting either man into foul trouble means Thomas Kithier could have to play more than twenty minutes for the first time in his career. The match-up down on the blocks is going to be big this meeting.
3. Depth: Neither Michigan nor Michigan State seem set to go too far down their bench. Michigan, out of choice, but Michigan State, out of lack of choice. Sure one could argue that Michigan really has just one choice player off their bench, Isaiah Livers, but no Ahrens would mean that Michigan State will have very limited options. Gabe Brown and Kithier have seen a couple games each of extended minutes, but neither player are really cut out to be that first option off the bench at this stage of their freshman year. These concerns could go straight out the window if Ahrens is available and can spell Aaron Henry, then Michigan State can run with the short bench they already did against Rutgers. But even looking at them to start the season, Ahrens, Tillman, and Henry were all bench options to make up a solid eight-deep rotation, and Foster Loyer has seen action in every game but one. Now, though, with Gabe Brown possibly replacing Ahrens and Henry off the bench and Kithier replacing Tillman, things are dicier.
Michigan really need to protect home court against a short-handed Michigan State team if they want to have a hand in deciding their Big Ten Championship fate. With a trip still to come against these Spartans, a visit to Maryland who will be seeking revenge, and a home game against Nebraska, none of those are guaranteed wins, with the home game against Nebraska looking most optimistic. But in the Big Ten, anything can happen. The best way to protect yourself and your tournament resume is to win on your home court. Michigan will look to do that tomorrow afternoon.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Michigan State -- An Overview:
The Spartans come in 22-5 and 13-3 in the Big Ten, good for a tie for first place with the Wolverines, and a half-game ahead of the Purdue Boilermakers. This record has not come without some complications. Joshua Langford was injured in the thirteenth game of the season, the final non-conference tie against Northern Illinois, and has been ruled out for the season. Then, against Ohio State, Nick Ward broke part of his hand and has been ruled out from three-to-five weeks. Michigan State, despite these setbacks, has generally been able to roll through their schedule. Despite an opening setback against Kansas, and a loss on the road to Louisville in overtime that saw Cassius Winston foul out, their offense has proven to be a genuine juggernaut. Currently sitting fourth in KenPom, and seventh in the Torvik T-Rank, even in defeat it took them till a sloppy victory over Ohio State to drop below 100 in offensive efficiency. Even then they finished at a 98.7. They sit first in conference three-point defense as well allowing just 29.4% of opposing shots to drop, while their overall field-goal percentage of 53.8% is top in the conference. That said, they are not perfect, and a three-game stretch in the conference proved that. The Spartans lost at Purdue, at home in front of a crowd that had hosted College Gameday that morning, and then at Illinois in a little over two weeks. They have rebounded well, including with a win at Wisconsin, but falling seven behind at the half against Rutgers at home is not the most welcome sign as well. Regardless, for all these reasons and then some, Michigan State are an absolute force.
Starting Five:
Especially now with two of the other three key players out for Michigan State, the load will fall upon junior point guard Cassius Winston to carry the team. Standing at 6'0", Winston was not the first option on last year's team, and perhaps that allowed him to slip under some teams' radars. Not this season, and yet he has still been able to put up incredible numbers. Named to the mid-season Naismith Award Watch List, the mid-season Wooden Award Watch List, as well as a top ten contender for the Bob Cousy Point Guard of the Year Award, Winston has taken the number one option role and ran with it. Winston leads the Spartans in minutes by far with 33 played per game. He also leads them in points per game (18.9 -- a total good for fourth in the Big Ten) and leads the Big Ten in assists with 7.4 per game, a total good for fourth in the entire country. A deadly marksman from deep, Winston is 43.4% from three and 49% from two. His pull-up two is near-automatic, and he enjoys shooting in transition rhythm almost as much as a wide-open three. He has scored in single-digits just once this season, an eight-point outing against Iowa where he still dropped twelve assists. This season he has more double-digit assist games (five) than he does of five or fewer (four). Now that you understand the strengths, the weaknesses must also be acknowledged. Winston has yet to be a premier defensive point guard. He also still turns the ball over quite heavily, averaging 2.8 per game. No preview would be complete as well without mentioning the job Zavier Simpson has done on him in their previous two meetings as starting point guards as well. Winston went a combined six-for-seventeen with eleven points and three made field goals in each outing. In the first meeting, he was impressively held to just two assists, and committed four turnovers, though that improved to five assists and one turnover in the Big Ten Tournament bout. This is obviously not the same Winston as last season, but I would also note that this is an even better defensive Simpson as well this season. Tough defensive pressure forced Winston to commit nine turnovers against Illinois. The Spartans are just 3-2 in games where he has committed five or more turnovers, the other loss being to Kansas. With Winston as the clear number one option against Rutgers, he scored 28 points with eight assists on eight-for-seventeen shooting (three-for-eight from three). These numbers could certainly be more efficient, but they are the numbers of a top player in the conference, and indeed the nation. Winston needs to be reigned in by Simpson, but that is not the lone thing the Wolverines need to do in order to win.
Option number two, currently, for Michigan State has been one of the Big Ten's most improved players in senior Matt McQuaid. It would sound incredibly peculiar to say to someone even just early last season that McQuaid would be the Spartans' best defender, but that would be the truth. After missing a couple early-season games due to injury, McQuaid has been back and better than ever, putting together a senior season full of highlights. He is averaging just 8.9 points per game, but his 44.1% three-point percentage speaks to his value on offense. This has been a career-defining season for the 6'4" guard. Not only is his defense improving but the three-point percentage is the highest it has ever been, which is impressive given his fame for being a key shooter for the Spartans. That shooting is key for the Spartans and he has a similar stat to Michigan State as Gabe Kalscheur does to Minnesota. Of the four Spartans losses McQuaid has played in (having missed Louisville due to the aforementioned injury) three of those came when McQuaid took three or fewer shots. When he's available, they are 6-3 with that criteria. This highlights, to me, that cutting off any space the wing-man has to shoot in is absolutely essential in beating this team. Charles Matthews is likely the man to guard McQuaid, given his level of importance for this Michigan State team without two of their key weapons. McQuaid is, in fact, just 36.5% from two and is only averaging 2.6 attempts inside the arc per game. If Matthews, or whomever is on McQuaid at a given time, can close him down quickly and off the three-point line, that will go a long way in stymieing the Michigan State offense.
Redshirt senior Kenny Goins is a favorite for head coach Tom Izzo, and it is not too difficult to see why. Described preseason by Izzo as "the perfect stretch four" according to him, the 6'7" power forward matches up excellently with plenty of teams' power forwards. Big enough to cover a stronger four, yet quick enough to hang with a faster opponent, Goins is playing over 28 minutes per game, third-most on the team among available players. Goins joins Winston as the only other player to start all 27 games this season. He has seen a big jump in productivity as a senior as he has gone from an occasional starter as a sophomore, to an afterthought as a junior, to now seeing a jump from a career-high 3.2 points per game up to this season's mark of 7.2 per game. Not only that, but his rebounding makes him a massive factor to any game even when he is not scoring. Goins is averaging nine rebounds per game, and 2.3 of those are offensive boards. A great example of this importance is in thirty minutes against Louisville, Goins did not take a single shot and missed his lone free throw attempt. And yet, he finished with seventeen rebounds, a career-high. Part of the reason he is now the perfect stretch four, according to Izzo, is his ability to take, and hit, threes. He is shooting 34.1% on the season (28-for-82) with a seasonal high of three threes made in four separate games. The key with Goins is consistency. His double-figure point total games number one fewer than amount of games where he has hit just one field goal in the entire forty minutes. Ignas Brazdeikis needs to be strong against Goins and not be afraid to take him inside. Likewise, he needs to be up to the task of covering the bruising forward on the interior as well. Being prepared for everything is a necessity for the freshman.
Starting in place of the injured Nick Ward is going to be Xavier Tillman. The 6'8" sophomore is actually a power forward by nature, but the slightly bigger man than Goins is going to start at the five until Ward is back and healthy. Tillman's start to the season was red hot. The sixth man was averaging 21.4 minutes per game to go with 8.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and a 69.4% field goal percentage (71.7% from two). He has continued to build off those numbers as he currently averages 8.7 points, but has dropped to seven rebounds per game, with a FG% of 61.5% now on the season. Like Goins, Tillman is huge on the glass as he too averages 2.3 offensive rebounds per game. He has one offensive rebound more on the season than his teammate Goins, but the two of them together on the blocks will surely frustrate the Wolverines. Something that Tillman has been doing this season is testing the water from three, but to middling success. He is four-for-twenty (20%) on the season, and is yet to have a game with multiple made threes. He has made two starts this season, both at center, the most recent being, of course, against Rutgers, and he has performed well in both of them. He went five-for-six with thirteen points in 27 minutes against Illinois, and he went seven-for-twelve with nineteen points (second-high on the team) and twelve rebounds in 33 minutes against Rutgers. He is going to be asked to play big minutes with Ward out, and Jon Teske is a tough match-up for him. I'll look for him to test Teske from three at some point, but I do not think that Michigan will be hurrying to cover him if he gets a moderately open three. If he can actually get on the block and bang down low with the Michigan center, then Michigan will have to accept it. A fun fact! Our mothers played basketball at Michigan together where they combined to lead Michigan's women's basketball program to their first NCAA Tournament victory ever. My mother, Carol Szczechowski, as a junior, scored 21 points on eight-for-thirteen shooting. His mother, Tanya Powell, a senior on that team, played all forty minutes and scored nineteen points on just seven attempts with twelve rebounds. They were both All Second Team Big Ten selections at some point in their careers. Not too bad at all!
Rounding out the starting five would figure to be wing Aaron Henry. The 6'6" freshman was figured since the start of the season to be the most likely of the MSU freshmen to make an impact on the team, but it is still a bit of a surprise for him to be a starter. Averaging 18.5 minutes, 4.7 points, and 3.2 rebounds per game, Henry is a fantastic athlete who can get to the rim and finish well. He is shooting 54.2% from two and has multiple high-flying dunks to his name. What Michigan State would surely like to see going forward is better range from three, he is just six-for-twenty (30%) from deep this season, but the promise he has shown already is a huge reason for excitement for the team's coaching staff. One of the positives in terms of starting Henry is the fact that there is a tailor-made sixth-man in Kyle Ahrens, but he is now questionable for the meeting with a re-aggrevated back injury. Michigan could be the first time Henry has played in a game with neither Langford nor Ahrens available for the Spartans. This could mean that Henry gets serious playtime once again for the first time in a couple of games. He has played at least thirty minutes in two games this season in conference play, but the Spartans have, interestingly, lost both of them. Henry needs to provide a jolt on offense against Michigan for the Spartans to be able to play up to their potential against the Wolverines.
Bench Rundown:
As I mentioned when discussing Aaron Henry, Kyle Ahrens is questionable for the game Sunday. He sat out of practice on Thursday, and no news has broken since regarding the senior guard's availability. I strongly believe he will play, but I'll give a slightly more brief rundown of Ahrens. Touching very briefly upon Ahrens, he is a redshirt senior who sat out all of last year due to a broken foot. Athletic when healthy, Ahrens is shooting 63.3% from two, and just 30.6% from three. Despite this, he is known more as someone who can take and make the three for Michigan State, generally off the bench. His top game this season was an impressive 41 minute outing against Louisville where he went six-for-ten with three threes for fifteen points. That game stands as the most shots he's taken this season, most threes made, and most points scored, along with, obviously, most minutes in a game. Averaging 5.5 points and 2.7 rebounds per game, Ahrens would be a big miss for Michigan State, whose bench would consist of entirely freshmen if he were to miss out on Sunday.
Freshman Thomas Kithier has played ten minutes in each of the last two games, and eighteen in the game before against Minnesota, and that extended play time would figure to continue with Nick Ward injured. That game against Minnesota served as a bit of a breakout for Kithier, who went five-for-six with eight points and three rebounds. Once thought of as a redshirt candidate, due in no small part to missing his entire senior season of high school due to an 'athletically motivated' transfer to Clarkston, the 6'8" forward or center is now playing a key role off the bench. He is fourteen-for-eighteen (77.8%) on the season from the field, and has reeled in 31 rebounds this season. The rebounding is something coach Tom Izzo would surely like to be improved upon, but that should certainly improve as he continues to go up against better opposition. His last three games have seen him go six-for-seven with a combined twelve points in 38 minutes of play. These are solid, and promising, numbers for a freshman who continues to get his feet wet.
If Ahrens is set to indeed be a miss, expect wing Gabe Brown to get his minutes as he did earlier this season. When Ahrens was a miss against Penn State and Nebraska earlier this season, the 6'7" wing saw over twenty minutes in both of those two games. He went a combined two-for-nine with three points and four rebounds in both of the two games. Without Ahrens against Purdue, he also played twelve minutes, but went zero-for-four with a pair of free throws. Those rough, but learning, early experiences could turn out to be huge now. On the season, Brown has been quite good shooting, with a 42.1% stroke overall. He has taken 29 shots from three (shooting 37.9%) while taking just nine from inside (55.6%). A good shooter with good size, his future prospects look very bright. For now, though, the extended play time has not yet proven to be fruitful for Brown as in games of double-digit minute tallies, he is just a combined two-for-fifteen.
The back-up point guard for Cassius Winston is Clarkston freshman Foster Loyer. Having played in every game this season but one, the 6'0" 2018 Michigan Mr. Basketball is a similar sort of player to Winston: fantastic passer, great shooter, weak defender. Right now, the shots are not falling for Loyer yet either at the college level. Loyer is shooting just 22.2% from three (four-for-eighteen) on the season and is at 40.6% on the year overall. He was recently entrusted with eleven minutes against Penn State, and despite going just one-for-four from three, Loyer finished with a solid seven points. The key is next going to be to be getting those minutes for the back-up point guard to allow him to play through his struggles. His 24 assists to fourteen turnovers is rather solid for the freshman already, but if he really is going to be more than just a back-up, he needs to be able to prove himself more on the court with end results.
Marcus Bingham Jr. is the final man that could see time off the bench. The 6'11" power forward, or center, is just a freshman and was, perhaps even more so than Kithier, an early-season redshirt candidate for the side. It was decided that he would not, and he has seen time in nineteen games with a high of ten minutes against Tennessee Tech. He is five-for-twenty (25%) on the season, all five makes coming from three, for a cumulative twenty points on the year. He could be a match-up problem for Michigan, but I don't expect to see him on the court unless Kithier and another big get into foul trouble.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
I have three keys to the game here. So let's run through them.
1. Role players: This one is crucial. Michigan State, with their current roster make-up, is Cassius Winston, Matt McQuaid, and five or six other guys that are hot-and-cold. The consistency of the role players like Kenny Goins and Xavier Tillman has been, well, inconsistent. Zavier Simpson can lock up Winston and hold him to eleven points again, sure, but that may not matter if Winston's distribution to wing shooters like McQuaid, or Aaron Henry, or Kyle Ahrens, if available, is still on point and the shooters are on. Watching the pick-and-pop and avoiding unneeded help and double-teams is going to be vital for Michigan all-around.
2. The two bigs: Speaking of Tillman and Goins, let's talk about the two bigs. Michigan has had tastes of that with Minnesota and Maryland as the last two games, and they were covered well. So what do they need to do here? Well first and foremost, Goins is the biggest threat to step outside from three of the two MSU bigs, or either of the four main big men that Michigan saw previously. Ignas Brazdeikis is going to draw the match-up on him, and he will need to watch out for screening actions and pops to the top of the key, something the freshman knows all about already. Hedging on Winston, but getting back in time to stop a pass to an open Goins is going to be necessary for Brazdeikis. Tillman can try to bruise Jon Teske down low, but that may not be worth the Spartans' time. It would be, however, if they dump the ball in and perhaps attempt to either lure Michigan into doubling (not too likely) or setting up off-ball action to free up a shooter on the outside. Additionally, getting either man into foul trouble means Thomas Kithier could have to play more than twenty minutes for the first time in his career. The match-up down on the blocks is going to be big this meeting.
3. Depth: Neither Michigan nor Michigan State seem set to go too far down their bench. Michigan, out of choice, but Michigan State, out of lack of choice. Sure one could argue that Michigan really has just one choice player off their bench, Isaiah Livers, but no Ahrens would mean that Michigan State will have very limited options. Gabe Brown and Kithier have seen a couple games each of extended minutes, but neither player are really cut out to be that first option off the bench at this stage of their freshman year. These concerns could go straight out the window if Ahrens is available and can spell Aaron Henry, then Michigan State can run with the short bench they already did against Rutgers. But even looking at them to start the season, Ahrens, Tillman, and Henry were all bench options to make up a solid eight-deep rotation, and Foster Loyer has seen action in every game but one. Now, though, with Gabe Brown possibly replacing Ahrens and Henry off the bench and Kithier replacing Tillman, things are dicier.
Michigan really need to protect home court against a short-handed Michigan State team if they want to have a hand in deciding their Big Ten Championship fate. With a trip still to come against these Spartans, a visit to Maryland who will be seeking revenge, and a home game against Nebraska, none of those are guaranteed wins, with the home game against Nebraska looking most optimistic. But in the Big Ten, anything can happen. The best way to protect yourself and your tournament resume is to win on your home court. Michigan will look to do that tomorrow afternoon.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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