Michigan goes for the school record for best start to a season in history as they look to go 17-0 in front of yet another sold out Crisler Center. They welcome in Northwestern as the first team that they will see twice this season. It is a big chance to keep momentum rolling for the Wolverines before a key road showdown at Wisconsin. Northwestern, I in fact, already previewed, but this will serve as a refresher for those who missed it and give some updated information about the Wildcats.
Northwestern -- An Overview:
The Wildcats tested Michigan more so than any other team this season, falling short at the buzzer losing 62-60 in Evanston in the newly renovated Welsh-Ryan Arena. While the Wildcats did brilliantly that game, they have been 10-6 this season and instead of that game being a spark, they were just a middling 4-3 after the game. While losing to a good Oklahoma team in overtime and away to Michigan State are fully understandable, a ten-point loss at home to Iowa, who did not have Tyler Cook available, is not what you want to come into Crisler Center with. A tight home win over Illinois preceded that game, and the Wildcats needed an A.J. Turner three with 10.1 seconds remaining to win it for them. They rank 61st in KenPom, just a spot under Penn State, and 56th in the Torvik T-Rank, a spot above Minnesota. A road win would get them up to 2-4 in Big Ten and go a long way in righting the ship.
Starting Five -- Player and Stat Line vs. Michigan:
Vic Law: 38 minutes, 7-17 FG, 4-8 3PT, 19 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 turnovers
Law is the player that really makes this Northwestern team go. The senior leader of the side, Northwestern's 6'7" wing is surely a focus in practice following his big game against the Wolverines at home. That said, despite a steady average of 17.3 points per game (down just 0.3 per game on average since the last meeting of these two teams) his three-point percentage has taken a hit as he's shot just 25% over the seven games since last meeting. He's dropped from 46.5% in the early season meeting to entering the game shooting just 35.6% from distance. Regardless, Law is coming off back-to-back double-doubles, having snared ten rebounds in each of his last two games, and is currently shooting 48.8% from two and 83.6% from the free throw line, both being career highs. Durable and resistant to the auto-bench, expect Chris Collins to keep Law on the court at almost all times. Despite early foul trouble last game, he stayed on the court and torched Michigan when he had the chance. It will be crucial for Charles Matthews to stick with him on defense and contest every shot to slow him down.
Dererk Pardon: 35 minutes, 9-10 FG, 1-1 3PT, 20 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers
Pardon's massive game against Jon Teske was the first harbinger that perhaps the incredible Michigan two-point percentage would not be its comically elite level for the entire season. He also finished easily around Austin Davis whenever he had the chance, and made sitting Teske out for any period of time very tough on Michigan. Not only that, but the big man hit one of his two threes on the season against Michigan as well. The 6'8" senior center averages 13.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game while shooting a stellar 63.7% from two. Over the last seven he's just 57.1% from two, and the strategy of dumping the ball into the post for a big man that can score is dangerous, but not always bad, as shown by Illinois on occasion in Thursday's game. The key to this will be keeping Teske out of foul trouble, and Isaiah Livers playing big when needed. Contest what you can, but keep the feet moving and overplay that left hand. Quieting Pardon will be important in securing a more comfortable victory over Northwestern.
Ryan Taylor: 35 minutes, 3-10 FG, 1-5 3PT, 9 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 2 turnovers
Taylor's struggles against Michigan were summed up by his buzzer-beating three bouncing off the rim and out to secure a loss for Northwestern. Taylor's shooting level, which was, if you'll recall, a full 10% higher from two up to the Michigan game from his last season at Evansville, has dropped. Shooting just under 27% over the last seven games has meant a drop in two-point percentage down to 41.5% to go with a 33.6% mark from three. He is averaging 12.4 points per game, a full point down from the first meeting, but still averaging in double figures is a solid sign and he remains the third-most played Wildcat on average. Looking at the Columbia game is a solid description of his game as of late, improved three-point shooting (five-for-seven from deep) but weak shooting from two (one-for-seven inside the arc), but a steady figure from the charity stripe (four-for-four that game, 96.4% on the season). Michigan will want to do exactly what they did last game, and that's cover the 6'6" grad-transfer guard constantly on the perimeter and let their defense inside the arc do the rest.
A.J. Turner: 32 minutes, 2-7 FG, 0-2 3PT, 7 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 turnovers
Turner transferred over from Boston College and still has two years of eligibility left. He started his first year of action with the Wildcats on a cold stretch, but since the Michigan game has looked much improved. The 6'7" wing averages 9.6 points a game, down a touch from the early season meeting, but he has shot 46.4% from behind the arc following the first bout with Michigan. Additionally, he has dished out 4.1 assists per game over this span, meaning he has an assist-to-turnover ratio over 2:1 over this stretch. The emergence of Turner from three has been huge, and it has meant the staff has had the confidence to turn to the hot hand in key moments, like the Illinois game. He may not be an elite scorer from all facets of the game yet this season, but he has the capability to do a little bit of everything this season before getting the keys to the team turned over to him for the 2019-20 season. For this game, though, I would imagine it will be Zavier Simpson charged with locking up the bigger guard. We saw some rotation of Simpson and Matthews between Law, I think we could see a bit of the same again with Law and Turner, especially with Turner's newfound stroke from three.
Miller Kopp: 9 minutes, 1-2 FG, 0-0 3PT, 2 points, 0 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 turnovers
Kopp has been the starter for the Wildcats, but he has not seen the starter's share of minutes. In a move similar to Isaiah Livers and Duncan Robinson for Michigan last season, Kopp starts the game then gives way for Anthony Gaines off the bench. The 6'7" freshman forward has been given a minutes boost over the last seven, averaging just under twenty minutes per game and averaging 5.1 points and three rebounds on 42.9% shooting (38.5% from deep). He played 37 minutes against DePaul, scored seventeen against Chicago State, and is still shooting above 40% from the field as a whole. Kopp has done well as a starter and I might expect to see him get more minutes on the court than the nine he saw in Evanston. That said, Ignas Brazdeikis will be the man guarding him and should be eager to prove himself against another of the Big Ten's solid freshmen.
Bench Rundown:
Anthony Gaines: 32 minutes, 1-3 FG, 0-0 3PT, 3 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover
Gaines is a 6'4" sophomore guard who, as I covered, is not the prototypical shooting guard. Chris Collins likes him off the bench for extended minutes. He provides a spark of energy and some added back court defense that could surely come in handy against a tough Michigan group of guards. Coming off a pair of double-figure games against Illinois and Iowa, Gaines still doesn't shoot much. He's effective when picking his spot from long range, he's five-for-eleven from three, but on the season has taken just 51 shots. He's a strong rebounding guard, and boxing him out will be key as he has a solid thirteen offensive boards on the season. While not a huge presence in the offensive game plan, Michigan should expect to see Gaines plenty on the evening.
Barret Benson: 5 minutes, 0-1 FG, 0-0 3PT, 0 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 0 turnovers
A 6'10" junior, and the only center other than Dererk Pardon listed on the roster, Benson is a consistent force on the bench in terms of expected output. He can be counted on anywhere from five to fifteen minutes in a game and give Pardon a break when needed. That said, he is obviously no Pardon, especially on the offensive end where he is more or less a non-factor. Benson has a double-double under his belt, twelve points and fourteen rebounds against Binghamton, but I would only expect to see him giving the starting center a spell off the bench.
Pete Nance: 4 minutes, no recorded stats
A former Michigan recruit, Nance is the last bench piece to see minutes in all sixteen games. A 6'10" freshman, Nance can shoot the three, which gives them something different from the bigger Benson. He, like Greer, has seen an uptick in minutes, but Nance's has been noticeably bigger, including 31 minutes against DePaul the game after the loss to Michigan. He has still not yet found his stroke from deep, he's 25.8% (8-for-31) from long distance and 35.7% overall, but he is likely the biggest piece to the puzzle for Northwestern's future. Getting him involved in a big game like this might seem a bit risky, especially since Pardon can play 35+ minutes, but it could be worth the learning experience.
Ryan Greer: 2 minutes, 1 turnover
Greer has seen a bump up in minutes per game, averaging 9.4 per game over the last seven. Still, the 6'2" freshman point guard does not see a massive role in the offense. He is shooting 36.4% on the season and is two-for-eleven from deep while being 10-for-22 from inside the arc. He averages 1.9 points per game and I would expect could see about five minutes or so as Collins is becoming more comfortable with working him into the line-up.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
Michigan will feel better about this match-up playing back out at home as opposed to on the road, but the win on the road should inspire confidence. This is a Northwestern team that is very much the same in dynamic (key players seeing tons of minutes) but different in that the bench is getting steadily deeper for Chris Collins' young Wildcat players. Collins has four veterans on the team, three of those being seniors, and I would expect him to ride his stars through this game. Vic Law and Dererk Pardon were the top dogs in Illinois, I would figure their game plan will be centered around finding them the ball. That said, the ability of multiple players to score (Ryan Taylor and A.J. Turner) in various ways as of late makes this upset slightly more likely to happen. I remain on keen alert for this game, and I am excited to recap what exactly goes down, because I believe this will be a fantastic chess match between these coaching staffs.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Northwestern -- An Overview:
The Wildcats tested Michigan more so than any other team this season, falling short at the buzzer losing 62-60 in Evanston in the newly renovated Welsh-Ryan Arena. While the Wildcats did brilliantly that game, they have been 10-6 this season and instead of that game being a spark, they were just a middling 4-3 after the game. While losing to a good Oklahoma team in overtime and away to Michigan State are fully understandable, a ten-point loss at home to Iowa, who did not have Tyler Cook available, is not what you want to come into Crisler Center with. A tight home win over Illinois preceded that game, and the Wildcats needed an A.J. Turner three with 10.1 seconds remaining to win it for them. They rank 61st in KenPom, just a spot under Penn State, and 56th in the Torvik T-Rank, a spot above Minnesota. A road win would get them up to 2-4 in Big Ten and go a long way in righting the ship.
Starting Five -- Player and Stat Line vs. Michigan:
Vic Law: 38 minutes, 7-17 FG, 4-8 3PT, 19 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 turnovers
Law is the player that really makes this Northwestern team go. The senior leader of the side, Northwestern's 6'7" wing is surely a focus in practice following his big game against the Wolverines at home. That said, despite a steady average of 17.3 points per game (down just 0.3 per game on average since the last meeting of these two teams) his three-point percentage has taken a hit as he's shot just 25% over the seven games since last meeting. He's dropped from 46.5% in the early season meeting to entering the game shooting just 35.6% from distance. Regardless, Law is coming off back-to-back double-doubles, having snared ten rebounds in each of his last two games, and is currently shooting 48.8% from two and 83.6% from the free throw line, both being career highs. Durable and resistant to the auto-bench, expect Chris Collins to keep Law on the court at almost all times. Despite early foul trouble last game, he stayed on the court and torched Michigan when he had the chance. It will be crucial for Charles Matthews to stick with him on defense and contest every shot to slow him down.
Dererk Pardon: 35 minutes, 9-10 FG, 1-1 3PT, 20 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers
Pardon's massive game against Jon Teske was the first harbinger that perhaps the incredible Michigan two-point percentage would not be its comically elite level for the entire season. He also finished easily around Austin Davis whenever he had the chance, and made sitting Teske out for any period of time very tough on Michigan. Not only that, but the big man hit one of his two threes on the season against Michigan as well. The 6'8" senior center averages 13.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game while shooting a stellar 63.7% from two. Over the last seven he's just 57.1% from two, and the strategy of dumping the ball into the post for a big man that can score is dangerous, but not always bad, as shown by Illinois on occasion in Thursday's game. The key to this will be keeping Teske out of foul trouble, and Isaiah Livers playing big when needed. Contest what you can, but keep the feet moving and overplay that left hand. Quieting Pardon will be important in securing a more comfortable victory over Northwestern.
Ryan Taylor: 35 minutes, 3-10 FG, 1-5 3PT, 9 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 2 turnovers
Taylor's struggles against Michigan were summed up by his buzzer-beating three bouncing off the rim and out to secure a loss for Northwestern. Taylor's shooting level, which was, if you'll recall, a full 10% higher from two up to the Michigan game from his last season at Evansville, has dropped. Shooting just under 27% over the last seven games has meant a drop in two-point percentage down to 41.5% to go with a 33.6% mark from three. He is averaging 12.4 points per game, a full point down from the first meeting, but still averaging in double figures is a solid sign and he remains the third-most played Wildcat on average. Looking at the Columbia game is a solid description of his game as of late, improved three-point shooting (five-for-seven from deep) but weak shooting from two (one-for-seven inside the arc), but a steady figure from the charity stripe (four-for-four that game, 96.4% on the season). Michigan will want to do exactly what they did last game, and that's cover the 6'6" grad-transfer guard constantly on the perimeter and let their defense inside the arc do the rest.
A.J. Turner: 32 minutes, 2-7 FG, 0-2 3PT, 7 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 turnovers
Turner transferred over from Boston College and still has two years of eligibility left. He started his first year of action with the Wildcats on a cold stretch, but since the Michigan game has looked much improved. The 6'7" wing averages 9.6 points a game, down a touch from the early season meeting, but he has shot 46.4% from behind the arc following the first bout with Michigan. Additionally, he has dished out 4.1 assists per game over this span, meaning he has an assist-to-turnover ratio over 2:1 over this stretch. The emergence of Turner from three has been huge, and it has meant the staff has had the confidence to turn to the hot hand in key moments, like the Illinois game. He may not be an elite scorer from all facets of the game yet this season, but he has the capability to do a little bit of everything this season before getting the keys to the team turned over to him for the 2019-20 season. For this game, though, I would imagine it will be Zavier Simpson charged with locking up the bigger guard. We saw some rotation of Simpson and Matthews between Law, I think we could see a bit of the same again with Law and Turner, especially with Turner's newfound stroke from three.
Miller Kopp: 9 minutes, 1-2 FG, 0-0 3PT, 2 points, 0 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 turnovers
Kopp has been the starter for the Wildcats, but he has not seen the starter's share of minutes. In a move similar to Isaiah Livers and Duncan Robinson for Michigan last season, Kopp starts the game then gives way for Anthony Gaines off the bench. The 6'7" freshman forward has been given a minutes boost over the last seven, averaging just under twenty minutes per game and averaging 5.1 points and three rebounds on 42.9% shooting (38.5% from deep). He played 37 minutes against DePaul, scored seventeen against Chicago State, and is still shooting above 40% from the field as a whole. Kopp has done well as a starter and I might expect to see him get more minutes on the court than the nine he saw in Evanston. That said, Ignas Brazdeikis will be the man guarding him and should be eager to prove himself against another of the Big Ten's solid freshmen.
Bench Rundown:
Anthony Gaines: 32 minutes, 1-3 FG, 0-0 3PT, 3 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover
Gaines is a 6'4" sophomore guard who, as I covered, is not the prototypical shooting guard. Chris Collins likes him off the bench for extended minutes. He provides a spark of energy and some added back court defense that could surely come in handy against a tough Michigan group of guards. Coming off a pair of double-figure games against Illinois and Iowa, Gaines still doesn't shoot much. He's effective when picking his spot from long range, he's five-for-eleven from three, but on the season has taken just 51 shots. He's a strong rebounding guard, and boxing him out will be key as he has a solid thirteen offensive boards on the season. While not a huge presence in the offensive game plan, Michigan should expect to see Gaines plenty on the evening.
Barret Benson: 5 minutes, 0-1 FG, 0-0 3PT, 0 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 0 turnovers
A 6'10" junior, and the only center other than Dererk Pardon listed on the roster, Benson is a consistent force on the bench in terms of expected output. He can be counted on anywhere from five to fifteen minutes in a game and give Pardon a break when needed. That said, he is obviously no Pardon, especially on the offensive end where he is more or less a non-factor. Benson has a double-double under his belt, twelve points and fourteen rebounds against Binghamton, but I would only expect to see him giving the starting center a spell off the bench.
Pete Nance: 4 minutes, no recorded stats
A former Michigan recruit, Nance is the last bench piece to see minutes in all sixteen games. A 6'10" freshman, Nance can shoot the three, which gives them something different from the bigger Benson. He, like Greer, has seen an uptick in minutes, but Nance's has been noticeably bigger, including 31 minutes against DePaul the game after the loss to Michigan. He has still not yet found his stroke from deep, he's 25.8% (8-for-31) from long distance and 35.7% overall, but he is likely the biggest piece to the puzzle for Northwestern's future. Getting him involved in a big game like this might seem a bit risky, especially since Pardon can play 35+ minutes, but it could be worth the learning experience.
Ryan Greer: 2 minutes, 1 turnover
Greer has seen a bump up in minutes per game, averaging 9.4 per game over the last seven. Still, the 6'2" freshman point guard does not see a massive role in the offense. He is shooting 36.4% on the season and is two-for-eleven from deep while being 10-for-22 from inside the arc. He averages 1.9 points per game and I would expect could see about five minutes or so as Collins is becoming more comfortable with working him into the line-up.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
Michigan will feel better about this match-up playing back out at home as opposed to on the road, but the win on the road should inspire confidence. This is a Northwestern team that is very much the same in dynamic (key players seeing tons of minutes) but different in that the bench is getting steadily deeper for Chris Collins' young Wildcat players. Collins has four veterans on the team, three of those being seniors, and I would expect him to ride his stars through this game. Vic Law and Dererk Pardon were the top dogs in Illinois, I would figure their game plan will be centered around finding them the ball. That said, the ability of multiple players to score (Ryan Taylor and A.J. Turner) in various ways as of late makes this upset slightly more likely to happen. I remain on keen alert for this game, and I am excited to recap what exactly goes down, because I believe this will be a fantastic chess match between these coaching staffs.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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