The Wolverines return back home following their first loss of the season as they host the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The two teams fought in a memorable overtime win for the Wolverines last season, but the once-struggling Minnesota team no longer has Nate Mason, but is back on the right track this season as they enter Ann Arbor with a 14-4 record, despite some troubling results. This is a key 'get right' game as they come off a rough performance.
Minnesota -- An Overview:
As mentioned, the Gophers are 14-4 on the season and 4-3 in the conference, with some odd results. Minnesota is on a 1-1 two-game stretch with a blowout loss on the road to Illinois and a home win by one over Penn State in which the Nittany Lions led by eight at the half. A hot and cold team, they have beaten Wisconsin on the road and stormed back against Nebraska at half despite a heavy deficit, but losses against Boston College and the aforementioned dropped game against Illinois are eyebrow raisers. Led by Richard Pitino, Rick's son, in his sixth year, he has a team led by veterans but also is coming off picking up one of the best recruits in recent history for Minnesota in Daniel Oturu. His peak was a five-seed in the 2017 NCAA Tournament, but they suffered a 12-5 upset to Middle Tennessee. He has stationed Minnesota solidly within the middle tier of the Big Ten, but the hope is always that he could do more. This may be one of those years where the roster talent must be capitalized upon.
Starting Five:
Leading off in terms of key players for Minnesota has to be Jordan Murphy. Named to the Wooden Award Midseason Watch List, Murphy is a 6'7" senior forward that is an absolute machine when it comes to double-doubles. A preseason All-Big Ten Team selection and a Third Team All-Big Ten choice for last season, Murphy is absolutely dominant in the paint for the Gophers. He averages 14.6 points and 12.1 rebounds per game, rebounding numbers that lead the Big Ten with 1.8 rebounds per game more than Ethan Happ. He has averaged double-figure scoring every year as a Gopher and has never rebounded less than eight rebounds per game over the course of a season. A four-year starter, Murphy's swan song has been as dominant as ever with performances like a thirty-point, sixteen-rebound night against North Carolina A&T, a near twenty-twenty against Penn State (nineteen points, 21 boards), six games of at least sixteen rebounds, nine games of at least fifteen points, and every single one of those fifteen-point games ending with a double-double. Dominant inside, Murphy, however, struggles from three. Murphy is three-for-fourteen on the season with all three of those coming before the month of December. The lack of a long range jumper allows defense to sag off him, but it means he is more likely going to hang around the blocks hoping for chances to snare offensive rebounds instead. This is a match-up that I think that despite a taller man on the court for Minnesota, Jon Teske should guard the bruising forward. Shooting 48.8% means that Murphy is not unstoppable down low and since the restart of conference season he is just 43.2% from the court. Teske as a rebounder and defender seems to be the better match-up for Michigan on the star forward. Regardless of if it is Teske or Ignas Brazdeikis, I expect some helping off the other big man, Daniel Oturu, when it is necessary.
Murphy has a powerful perimeter threat as a one-two punch, and that is junior guard Amir Coffey. Coffey is a 6'8" guard that has the ability to bring the ball up the court and is best known for being a do-it-all threat for Richard Pitino's side. Coffey leads the side in scoring with 15.7 points per game and is really the standard-bearer for what the buzzword of "positionless basketball" truly stands for. Despite an injury-shortened season, Coffey has been highly valuable for the Golden Gophers, as emphasized by his starting of every game that he has appeared in. That, perhaps, was most valuable in the fact that Minnesota truly fell off a cliff following their swing-man's injury. Coffey, despite the team-leading scoring, has seen a sharp drop in shooting percentages, though. His overall is down from 47.5% to 43.5%, due largely to shooting just 29.8% from three (down from 36.8% last season). The key to Coffey is free throw shooting. His top scoring game, 32 points against Nebraska, saw him go fourteen-for-seventeen from the free throw line. His second-highest scoring night, 29 points against Rutgers, saw him go eight-for-ten from the charity stripe. If Coffey can get to the free throw line, as he has been on average of two more times per game this season than last, he can cause some serious problems. I expect Charles Matthews to be tasked with stopping the drive and limiting his perimeter freedom.
Daniel Oturu drew hype entering this season as a top-fifty prospect in his class, and the freshman has certainly done well for himself. Standing 6'10", Oturu's height allows him to play as a center in the offense while Murphy does the dirty work alongside him, operating in a two-big formation. Oturu has immediately made his presence felt by averaging 10.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, making him the likely heir to the double-double gap that Murphy will leave once graduating provided he bulks up a bit more. He shoots 56.8% from the field, entirely from two, and has already amassed five double-doubles this season. With Eric Curry's injury, Oturu immediately was given the chance to seize the starting center role for Minnesota and he has been able to warrant confidence in the future for Minnesota fans. A good rebounder and still a raw talent, Oturu is one to watch for the future, certainly, but definitely not a player to forget about in the game to come as his PORPAGATU! is a 2.2, the third-best out of all Golden Gophers.
When it comes to leadership, senior Dupree McBrayer is worthy of praise in both his ability to lead while also being an important piece in the offense. Standing 6'5", the guard has starting at least 50% of games he was available for in all four of his seasons in Minnesota. Tough and versatile, His 10.7 point per game average gives Minnesota four separate double-figure scorers as a team. That said, despite the added leadership role, McBrayer is taking more and more threes and less and less twos over the course of his career, and that is a trend that may not be for the better. While McBrayer saw his sophomore season percentage from three at 40.6%, it dropped to 34.9% as a junior, and currently sits at 32.9%. Meanwhile, despite shooting just 36.8% from two last season, he is now shooting 50% even despite shooting the two less. He is a strong slasher and a pretty good driver, the left-handed dominance allows him to throw defenders off balance, but I would expect Jordan Poole to cover the senior and do a job on him provided he stays in front of him on drives.
Rounding out the starting five is another freshman, this one coming in less-heralded as Oturu, but producing strong results nonetheless. Gabe Kalscheur is a 6'4" freshman who impressed early with his threes, but continues to develop his game. Averaging 9.7 points per game, Kalscheur is certainly a shooter first and foremost as his first seven games saw him averaging 13.6 points on 54.8% shooting from deep, including a seven-for-twelve night against Santa Clara, and nineteen on five-for-six shooting against Utah. Since then, he has seemingly featured more heavily on opposing scouting reports as he is 25% since the start of December and 31.7% overall. An incredible stat is that Minnesota has won every game that Kalscheur has simply attempted six or more threes. Not made, attempted. This, to me, implies that if Minnesota is finding space for the shooter, then they are finding space elsewhere even if he has a night like his zero-for-eight shooting game vs. North Florida or two-for-six for eight points against Texas A&M. I figure Zavier Simpson will be tasked with limiting the guard's production around the perimeter.
Bench Rundown:
Isaiah Washington was the freshman phoenom last season, a top-forty prospect, and terrorized Michigan in Ann Arbor last season, but the 6'1" New Yorker has seen a drop in production. Despite leading the team with 3.8 assists per game, Washington's own shooting output has not been very good. He is shooting just 29.5% with an 18.8% mark from three (6-for-32). Still, in this fixture, stats can be thrown out the window. Leading into this same game last season, Washington was averaging 6.9 points per game on 32.3% shooting (19.4% from three) and what happened? He went off for 26 points on ten-for-fourteen shooting on the inside in one of the best individual player performances Michigan saw last season. The sophomore will hope to have a similar sort of bounce-back game, but when he checks in I would expect this performance to be fresh in Michigan's mind and Zavier Simpson to be sticking to the guard like glue.
Despite missing twelve games due to injury, Eric Curry is back and fully ready to contribute. A 6'9" redshirt sophomore who missed all of last season due to injury, the time is now for the big man to offer a consistent big man threat off the bench for Minnesota. His best performance came largely due to five-for-six shooting from the free throw line against Penn State where he went for eleven points. He is 52.2% from two, and zero-for-four from three. It would be reasonable to assume that the five point, 3.5 rebound per game player will be the man to spell both Murphy and Oturu when one man needs a break, allowing two bigs to stay on the court at all times.
Minnesota only played these two men off the bench against Penn State, but four other player have played in at least fifteen of their side's games and could certainly be expected to be seen at Crisler Center. Michael Hurt is a 6'7" junior whose first DNP of the season was that Penn State game. Because of injuries and suspensions for the Gophers, Hurt was unexpectedly thrown into game action to the tune of nineteen minutes per game and fourteen starts. Hurt averages just 2.1 points per gae but is shooting a solid 46.1% on a whopping 75% two-point shooting (twelve-for-sixteen) despite just one-for-eleven shooting from deep. Brock Stull is the only man coming off the bench currently that has seen a start. Stull is a 6'4" grad transfer guard from Milwaukee where he lit things up on the scoreboard for the Panthers as their second-highest scorer in the 2017-18 season. Averaging 13.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists on even 37.9% shooting from two and three last season, he is shooting 45.6% overall with eight-for-fifteen shooting from deep this season. Another transfer, Matz Stockman served as the first big man off the bench before Curry's return. Jumping ship from Louisville two seasons ago and sitting last season out, the 7'0" center is still just a redshirt sophomore with time on his side. He is shooting 52.6% with an average of 2.9 points and 2.1 rebounds per ame. The final potential piece off the bench is Jarvis Omersa, a 6'6" freshman wing who has seen his minutes taper off as the season has gotten deeper. Omersa has done all his damage from inside shooting 36.4% (8-for-22) on the season to the tune of 1.2 points and 1.3 rebounds per game.
Pre-Game Thoughts:
This is a game that is absolutely prime for a bounce-back. Heading back home, Michigan gets the chance to square off with a team who that match up well with, but more importantly it is a team that has struggled seriously as of late against some of the Big Ten's worst teams with the fourth-worst scoring defense in conference play. Minnesota has played Rutgers, Illinois, and Penn State in their last three games and while they blew out Rutgers without their top performer of this season, the other two were not nearly as rosy. Jordan Murphy and Amir Coffey are both supremely talented, but both men are rather inconsistent when it comes to playing. The key for Minnesota is going to be having someone come up and play the third-option like Isaiah Washington did last season for them to push the Wolverines into overtime. If not, and especially if Charles Matthews continues his strong defensive output on Coffey, the Golden Gophers will be in for a long night.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
Pre-Game Thoughts:
This is a game that is absolutely prime for a bounce-back. Heading back home, Michigan gets the chance to square off with a team who that match up well with, but more importantly it is a team that has struggled seriously as of late against some of the Big Ten's worst teams with the fourth-worst scoring defense in conference play. Minnesota has played Rutgers, Illinois, and Penn State in their last three games and while they blew out Rutgers without their top performer of this season, the other two were not nearly as rosy. Jordan Murphy and Amir Coffey are both supremely talented, but both men are rather inconsistent when it comes to playing. The key for Minnesota is going to be having someone come up and play the third-option like Isaiah Washington did last season for them to push the Wolverines into overtime. If not, and especially if Charles Matthews continues his strong defensive output on Coffey, the Golden Gophers will be in for a long night.
Follow me on Twitter @RMAB_Ryan for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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