BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS: A Solid Sample Size

With every team having played five games at least, and some even up to seven, there is now a general understanding of the tiers of the Big Ten. There is, however, a build-up, of teams right around the .500 mark for the conference season. How are we to distinguish them? That is where my power rankings come in.

1. Michigan: 17-0 (6-0)
Michigan have continued their dominant winning ways and have now set a new school record for most wins in a row to start a season with their most recent win at home over Northwestern. With Jon Teske and Zavier Simpson's levels of production as of late, combined with the ability of any of the other three starters on offense, they present a serious concern for every other team in the league when they play. Isaiah Livers can come off the bench and provide key minutes as well, and they are the only team in the nation to have six players with PORPAGATU! scores of 3.0 or higher (Bart Torvik's metric of measuring points above a replacement player). The defense has looked a bit less dominant as of late, especially against two-pointers, but the scoring defense in conference games (allowing 60.7 points against per Big Ten game) is the best in the conference. They have shown nothing to me that could allow me to bump them down to two, and they look to keep up their winning ways.

2. Michigan State: 15-2 (6-0)
The sixth ranked team in the country, Michigan State is well on its way to another dominant year. KenPom's number three team in the land, three spaces higher than Michigan, in fact, the Spartans have been running over teams even without Joshua Langford. It has been Cassius Winston's show as he has somehow improved all his numbers over last season, excluding his three-point percentage which is not at the near-comical 49.7% on 151 attempts of last season, but still at a highly-impressive 45.4% on 97 attempts. The Spartans are not a team of superstars, but guys like Xavier Tillman, coming off the bench to highly successful results, Matt McQuaid, who continues to be lights-out shooting while having greatly improved his defense, and Kenny Goins, a surefire First Teamer if there was a position designated for 'Glue Guy', all have provided sparks. With a quiet but strong recruiting class as well, MSU seem set for the years to come, but also have a team that could make a serious run into the NCAA Tournament.

3. Maryland: 15-3 (6-1)
I only had Maryland ninth in these power rankings just a month ago. Since then, they have reeled off six straight wins, including a 5-0 start to the new year of Big Ten conference play. These have all been games against top-tier teams: Indiana, Wisconsin, Nebraska, at Minnesota, and a blowout win at an often top-to-play-at Rutgers. A loss at home to Seton Hall hurt them in terms of possible AP Poll ranking, but their three losses are all to top-fifty KenPom teams. Maryland struggled in the second half against Wisconsin, but their first-half dominance kept them out front and able to snag another win. When not in foul trouble, Bruno Fernando is absolutely dominant in the low post (see: eleven-for-twelve for 25 points with thirteen rebounds against Indiana) and despite two off nights, Jalen Smith is more than capable as a freshman already in the line-up. These two play off Anthony Cowan who night-in and night-out is one of the most fun-to-watch guards in the Big Ten. Maryland is starting to hit its stride and two key away games, at Ohio State and Michigan State are set to come as big tests for Mark Turgeon's Terrapins.

4. Iowa: 14-3 (3-3) 
Here is where things start to get a bit tricky. At #23 in the country, Iowa is the fourth-highest ranked Big Ten team in the polls. I agree with the AP, but it's not a massive gap from this Iowa team even down to the ninth or tenth spot. Despite starting 0-3 with tough draws to a hot Wisconsin team, at Iowa, and at Purdue, they have come back in form with three thumpings of Nebraska, Northwestern on the road without Tyler Cook, and Ohio State. All last three have been done without sophomore big man Luka Garza, as well. When the Hawkeyes get back to 100% health, they will be an even greater force. For now, though, the results do not lie. Joe Wieskamp as just a freshman is playing well and is a key part to the puzzle. Additionally, Jordan Bohannon is 42.3% from three since the Iowa State game (when my last power rankings were released). He is getting back into form at an important time as they have two winnable games before welcoming Michigan State into Carver-Hawkeye Arena. This Iowa team I foresee being better and better as the season goes forward.

5. Nebraska: 13-4 (3-3) 
I am supremely cautious of putting Nebraska this high, but their results as of late have been too good to ignore. They finally got a team-defining Big Ten road win at Assembly Hall when they cleaned Indiana's clock and held them to just 51 points. Their road losses have all been respectable: Minnesota (blowing a big lead, albeit), Maryland, and Iowa, and they have a non-conference victory over Clemson on the road too. There are no bad losses on the schedule and alongside James Palmer's late dominance, Isaiah Roby is quickly become another key weapon for Tim Miles and the Cornhuskers. I am still concerned over their team's depth, but Big Ten play usually means plenty of minutes for the starters anyways. For now, they are fifth. This could change, but for now I can hesitantly buy in to what one of the best home teams in the entire NCAA is selling. Especially if Glynn Watson continues to shoot over 40% from beyond the arc. They are an experienced side that are desperate to get into the NCAA Tournament. Right now, I don't doubt they will. Ask me again in a month though and we may reevaluate.

6. Purdue: 10-6 (3-2)
Purdue is a team that I, quite frankly, am most confused about. They have won, at home, over Iowa and Maryland, and have won on the road against Wisconsin. On the other hand, six losses just look bad, especially with two to inconsistent Texas and Notre Dame teams. They are 16th in KenPom rankings, have stayed consistently high, and still possess perhaps the best player in the Big Ten in Carsen Edwards who is averaging an incredible 25.3 points on 42.5% shooting. Purdue's schedule is the second most difficult in the nation, behind only Kansas, though, and I cannot help but thinking eighth in these rankings is too harsh. Looking at the team as a whole, though, and their sum is greater than the parts. Nojel Eastern has not taken nearly enough of a sophomore jump for Purdue. Ryan Cline is a good-to-great shooter, but a one-dimensional scorer. The beauty of Matt Painter's Boilermakers, though, is that he has a ton of talent to play with. Aaron Wheeler is playing more, so is Trevion Williams, Evan Bordeaux is now starting with Matt Haarms coming off the bench, Eric Hunter is also learning on the job. This is a team that will improve as the season goes on, and I think we have already seen a bit of that by winning at the Kohl Center in overtime. Fourth or fifth feels too high, I thought of them as low as eighth, which felt way low, so I compromised at sixth.

7. Minnesota: 13-3 (3-2)
First and foremost, I always feel weird about ranking a team that lost to another team higher than they are, and that is the situation here with Minnesota at seven and Nebraska at five. That said, I think that enough time has passed, and Nebraska has bigger statement wins, than Minnesota does at the moment. I really do like this Minnesota team regardless, and they and Nebraska could, quite frankly be tied. Amir Coffey is shooting inconsistently but he is still leading the team in points and serves as one of multiple team leaders. Jordan Murphy remains a double-double machine as well and is on the Wooden Midseason Watch List. All five on the Gophers' starters average double-figure points. Still, this is a team who struggles in the threes that they shoot (which are not plentiful) and despite the fact that they go deep in terms of players off the bench, including the return of back-up center Eric Curry, there isn't a true sixth man scorer off the bench. Isaiah Washington is shooting just 29.4% as a whole after a bright freshman season. At the moment, they have room to improve, and Nebraska looks a bit more polished. For that, I have Minnesota seventh.

8. Indiana: 12-5 (3-3)
After a hot 12-2 start to the season, I would have easily told you Indiana were the clear number three team in the conference. Now, three losses in a row have them wobbled including a bone-shaking fifteen-point loss at home to Nebraska. Do I still believe Indiana are a good team? Yes, without question. Point guard Rob Phinisee will be back in the near future and Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan remain elite Big Ten talent. Despite that, there is no third option for the Hoosiers. Devonte Green has stepped up at point guard, but he can force shots and is inconsistent himself (see the one-for-seven performance against Nebraska). If IU leaves all the pressure on Langford and Morgan to win games and score points for them, it is going to be tough, no matter how good they are, for just two players to carry them this season. In my last power rankings, I predicted some tough losses for them to really round back into form. These past three games, all losses to good teams, could be that switch that flips for Indiana to get back on form.

9. Wisconsin: 11-6 (3-3)
Like Purdue, Wisconsin is another team that despite middling performances, KenPom and other rating methods love. They are 14th in KenPom despite four losses in their last five, including at Western Kentucky and a pair of home conference losses, with that lone win being a beatdown over Penn State on the road. Hack-a-Happ worked for Minnesota who fouled him repeatedly at the end of the game and watched as Happ went one-for-seven down the stretch from the line. Happ is absolutely dominant on offense and averages 19.4 points and 10.4 rebounds to go with a crazy 4.6 assists per game. He is dominant from two, but has no outside shot to speak of meaning big men can play on the blocks, but this forces help from the wings and could leave shooters open. D'Mitrik Trice is the deputy of the team as he shoots 45.6% from three, slightly cooled off his early blistering thirty-for-fifty pace to start the season. Brad Davison has also stepped up huge lately averaging just over fourteen points on over 62% shooting from three in his last seven. The Badgers found their third scorer who I assumed they would need, but the results have fallen off. A big showdown at home against Michigan could be the reversal of fortunes and big win they need to turn things around.

10. Ohio State: 12-4 (2-3)
This is an Ohio State team that has really fallen off, and things will not be easier. Coming off three straight losses -- a tough one at home against Michigan State, an away trip to Rutgers, and another away defeat to Iowa -- Ohio State have four straight against top-twenty KenPom teams, including visits to Michigan and Nebraska. Chris Holtmann has done an amazing job with a roster that most thought would at least two years to get into form. Kaleb Wesson is the big man down low that makes things go, but his supporting cast does not impress me to a great extent. Even CJ Jackson, who is averaging almost thirteen points per game on 40.7% shooting from three, is too inconsistent for my tastes. Players like Wesson and Kyle Young, shooting 76.2% from two, which seems almost comical, are good enough to keep them around, plus the defense is forcing the second-worst shooting percentage in conference opponents. This is not a team that I look at and say 'this one thing is wrong' but rather it seems to be a well-coached team that simply does not have that one or two dynamic offensive weapons like a Michigan, Michigan State, or even a Minnesota or Wisconsin has.

11. Northwestern: 10-7 (1-5)
Now we get to the bottom-tier. Northwestern is the top of the bottom. This is a team that needs more seasoning, and will be getting plenty of it as the year goes on. Vic Law missing out in Ann Arbor meant they could never truly scare Michigan on the road like they did at Welsh-Ryan. Their lone win in conference is over Illinois at home and despite scaring teams, they do not have that statement win. Dererk Pardon is the best of the rest when factoring out Law, and the supporting cast is players without true characteristics as players. Ryan Taylor is a deadly three-point specialist and solid from two, but he is not that second (or third) weapon in the way that I think some thought he could be. Likewise, AJ Turner is still inconsistent. Plenty of other rotation pieces have potential, like Pete Nance and Miller Kopp, but they are still raw. Chris Collins does not have an identity for his team, and I think that is damaging for a team that really should be performing better at this point in the season.

12. Penn State: 7-10 (0-6)
There is one reason Penn State is not a bottom-two side: defense. The 20th best defense in the whole country, according to KenPom, it is helping them hold at 61st in the KenPom ratings. I believe that is far, far, too high, and believe the 77th T-Rank they currently hold is more to par, but I cannot deny what a superb defense the Nittany Lions possess. Lamar Stevens has an impressive PORPAGATU! (3.5) but he is just 24th in the Big Ten. His three-point shot is non-existent and despite the impressive 18.6 points and eight rebounds per game, he is not enough, especially without a three-point stroke, to carry this PSU team to impressive results that they may have hoped for after an NIT-winning year last season. Their 22.1% three-point percentage in conference play is worst of the Big Ten and Myles Dread may be pulling his weight, but I'm looking at Josh Reaves to really start performing more towards this part of the season. Patrick Chambers is coaching for his life at Penn State the rest of this season. He is already on thin ice after shoving Dread and missing a game (one that, in fairness to his ability, perhaps, they were blown out of by scuffling Wisconsin at home). Iowa, Minnesota, and Rutgers, with two of those at home, are not the easiest stretch, but that is not murderer's row and gives the opportunity of at least one quality win.

13. Rutgers: 8-7 (1-4) 
Rutgers performing their seemingly annual home upset over Ohio State, knocking them down several pegs. They play Purdue today (the fifteenth) and let the record show that a win would allow them to move up all the way to eleventh. The loss of Eugene Omoruyi to a dislocated kneecap, however, is absolutely killer as he was easily their top player thus far this season. Instead, more weight will need to be bore by Geo Baker, the ultra-talented sophomore guard who is averaging 13.2 points and 4.5 assists per game. Baker will not have much of a supporting cast, to be bluntly honest. A fun fact is that of the players coach Steve Pikiell will have available to him vs. Purdue, outside of Baker, only Peter Kiss is even averaging more than three made field goals per game, and even then he's only averaging 3.1 for a third-best 8.4 points per game. Pikiell is a great coach. This is an absolute masterclass by him this season. If he leads them to a 12th-place finish in the conference, this will be something worth praising, and something that bigger schools will take notice of.

14. Illinois: 4-12 (0-5)
There is not much to say that the record does not say for itself. Yes, it is the fifth-most difficult schedule in the country, but a loss at home to Florida Atlantic says a ton about the team as a whole. Brad Underwood's 'run 'n' gun' style of offense just is not working. Trent Frazier and Ayo Dosunmu cannot seem capable of turning in high-quality performances on the same night. That is a major problem in my opinion, and one that troubles the Fighting Illini a lot. I do like the talent on this team. Both guards are good talents, Aaron Jordan is a stellar role player, and Giorgi Bezhanishvili is proving to perhaps be the surprise freshman of the season in the Big Ten. That said, without a key weapon off the bench, and with the sets not being run by players to completion (I personally have my own questions to ask of the sets as a whole) mean the team is struggling. Dosunmu plays sometimes as if he's still running the show in AAU basketball and his frustration boiled over against Michigan with a hard foul on Ignas Brazdeikis. There is no question the shooting guard is talented, but he needs to be smarter, more in control, and serve as a leader for the team because despite being a freshman, he has the raw talent his team needs.

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