In 2016, Newcastle United were relegated with Rafa Benitez at the helm. This was, to be frank, in no way his fault. Rafa's response was to win the Championship and promptly finish tenth last season with a side that was most likely punching above its weight finishing even in the top half of the table, despite some quality.
This summer though has been something resembling a nightmare. Mike Ashley, the chairman of Newcastle, remains unwilling to spend money for the side despite a current net spend of £35 million this season in the positive. Even combined the transfer net spends from their first two seasons back in the Premier League, given fees we know of, Newcastle still sit have a positive net spend of £11 million. Taking on their seasonal transfers from the year they spent in the Championship, that's an extra £30 million made net spend wise off of transfer.
Now, things have not always been on a shoestring budget, as shown by the summer 2015 and January 2016 windows in which they dropped over £80 million on transfers. But for Benitez, making due with near nothing is all he's known. Those that were brought in for massive fees were not even his players! Steve McClaren brought in every single player that window.
And yet, still, even still, there are positives. Of the eight players signed that window, only two (Ivan Toney, who has spent nearly all his time out on loan, and Jonjo Shelvey) remain at the club. Chancel Mbemba and Florian Thauvin had nearly their entire fees recovered in the sales, Andros Townsend's relegation clause meant Newcastle made a profit, and sure the club is letting Henri Saivet walk on a free transfer, but his wages will be cleared up and £5 million is easily covered by either Gini Wijnaldum's or Aleksandar Mitrovic's transfers to Liverpool and Fulham, respectively.
The Season to Come: And so, here sits Rafa Benitez, post-match after a 4-0 defeat to Braga in Portugal. He is less than pleased. What does he think?
This summer though has been something resembling a nightmare. Mike Ashley, the chairman of Newcastle, remains unwilling to spend money for the side despite a current net spend of £35 million this season in the positive. Even combined the transfer net spends from their first two seasons back in the Premier League, given fees we know of, Newcastle still sit have a positive net spend of £11 million. Taking on their seasonal transfers from the year they spent in the Championship, that's an extra £30 million made net spend wise off of transfer.
Now, things have not always been on a shoestring budget, as shown by the summer 2015 and January 2016 windows in which they dropped over £80 million on transfers. But for Benitez, making due with near nothing is all he's known. Those that were brought in for massive fees were not even his players! Steve McClaren brought in every single player that window.
And yet, still, even still, there are positives. Of the eight players signed that window, only two (Ivan Toney, who has spent nearly all his time out on loan, and Jonjo Shelvey) remain at the club. Chancel Mbemba and Florian Thauvin had nearly their entire fees recovered in the sales, Andros Townsend's relegation clause meant Newcastle made a profit, and sure the club is letting Henri Saivet walk on a free transfer, but his wages will be cleared up and £5 million is easily covered by either Gini Wijnaldum's or Aleksandar Mitrovic's transfers to Liverpool and Fulham, respectively.
The Season to Come: And so, here sits Rafa Benitez, post-match after a 4-0 defeat to Braga in Portugal. He is less than pleased. What does he think?
"Things are not going well off the pitch and you can see a reflection of that on the pitch," admitted Benitez. ... We are concerned. Everyone in the dressing room was really upset with our performance and with how things are going, but we will try to change things in the next 10 days." (Source: BBC)
And really, he is not wrong. Newcastle have made three moves this summer: retaining starting keeper Martin Dubravka on a full transfer (£4.5 million) after being on loan last season, signing Ki Sung-Yueng (free) from relegated Swansea, and bringing in Fabian Schar (£3 million) from Real Deportivo, though they hope to finalize a work permit for Yoshinori Muto from Mainz for a whopping £9.5 million soon.
Fans are frustrated at the lack of movement of the club and Ashley's refusal to inject quality into the club. Benitez is frustrated at, well, seemingly the same things. With each player link, there seems to be another dead end. West Brom's big man on top Salomon Rondon's reported move either on loan or as a swap with Dwight Gayle has stalled out. Thiago Maia of Lille was reportedly heading to Newcastle on loan with option to buy, but that stalled out. Ahmed Hegazi, also of West Brom, had links to Newcastle but those have fizzled out. Finally, Club Brugge's Anthony Limbombe is a case of many clubs being linked to him and could potentially be a replacement for the rumored to be leaving Christian Atsu.
There are still serious problems with Newcastle, but perhaps they could have been patched over. Now, there is a glaring issue and it stems from Florian Lejuene's injury which is set to see him out of much of the season for the Magpies. Lejuene was steadily consistent as the #2 center-back after taking Ciaran Clark's spot in the starting eleven. The injury means that even with Schar brought in, surely Newcastle will be back in the market for another center-back or they run the risk of potential reliance on untested Josef Yarney, a former Everton youth product, in the regular season with another injury to Clark, Schar, or Jamaal Lascelles.
The Team:
We do indeed need to properly discuss Newcastle's side as well because, as plenty of fans know, passing judgement on a transfer window is not always sound strategy. And any team managed by Rafa Benitez is always going to have a fighting chance to contend in any league, regardless of its personnel.
Newcastle's favored line-up is the 4-2-3-1, which can drop deeper to a 4-4-1-1 as well with more or less the same personnel. All four (I will include Muto, since he has indeed been officially signed) players permanently signed this offseason, as well as Kenedy, who returns from loan last season from Chelsea, again on loan with option to buy, figure to play roles as starters this season.
In defense will surely be Martin Dubravka in net. The Slovak became a mainstay in the second half of the year and is impressive both stopping shots, like his double-save on Troy Deeney's penalty and follow-up, but also is stellar with the ball at his feet. Bringing back the 29-year-old goalie is vital for Newcastle in shoring up the back line and providing a bit of familiarity to a line that is now set to have at least one new face in it.
That back line will be anchored by one of the most consistently underrated center-backs in the country in captain Jamaal Lascelles. Lascelles is a powerful presence not just in the air, where he's outstanding at winning duels, but also just on the pitch as a leader. Still just 24 as well, he is one to watch in the future having been linked to many clubs, include recent links to Everton. Fabian Schar seems likely to start alongside Lascelles offering a bit of a more technical force in the defense, more so than Lejuene would.
At full-back is Deandre Yedlin on the right and Paul Dummett on the left. Yedlin is a player most readers I expect know as an American international. He's been very good for Newcastle and is best known for his outstanding pace, something that I expect will continue to be his most prized attribute. Dummett on the left is a bit of an interesting case and left-back is a spot that Newcastle are looking to improve as well. The product of the Newcastle academy system, and now a 26-year-old veteran, had a knee injury for the first half of last season, but reclaimed his spot over Javi Manquillo by the second half rather easily as Manquillo faced struggles while Dummett was an underrated piece of the Newcastle side with strong defending on a weekly basis. Dummett can provide center-back cover as well, but what is clear is that Newcastle need another defender. Whether it's a center-back or left-back, another first-team man seems crucial to their season.
In midfield will almost assuredly be Jonjo Shelvey, but the second man in the middle of the park is up for debate. I would expect a more defensive-minded Mo Diame to at least start the season off as a starter, but Ki Sung-Yueng could easily pressure him for that spot. Shelvey is the creative force of the midfield and his long shots and nice passing allows the side to advance forward. Diame had a strong year as his passing and winning possession is key in the pitch, but I think you also can get a lot of that from Ki as well going forward. If there's a spot on the pitch to watch in terms of a starting spot battle, this would be it.
Getting Forward:
We've discussed all this, but the key to Newcastle's season is goals. The three of the 4-2-3-1 are not a problem, though. Kenedy on the left and Matt Ritchie on the right do their job pitch spacing well, and Ayoze Perez was stellar with eight goals and five assists in the league. Perez will be looked at as a leader in the central attacking-mid role through his ability to come through for Newcastle, which is clear to see based on his team-leading amount of goals. Kenedy being brought back in is great business and his hold on the left-mid spot allows the left to also be covered in defense, but you also have your capable attacking threat on the left as well. Ritchie's ability on the right with strong delivery via crosses is something you'd expect Newcastle to try and exploit, especially with Perez's ability to make strong runs into the box.
Where you do run into problems, however, is the depth. Jacob Murphy was purchased from Norwich City in 2017 for £12 million. Murphy had mighty struggles with confidence and played a full ninety minutes in the league just twice, including filling in for Kenedy against his parent club Chelsea on the last day of the year. Obviously, it is far too early to give up on Murphy, but Newcastle will simply want to see more out of their biggest summer signing last season. Meanwhile, Christian Atsu, who was solid when healthy and is gifted with blinding pace, has been linked away from Newcastle and struggled with inconsistency as well as limited playtime through injury as he did not see game action following their match on April 6th last season. Especially if Atsu does indeed move on, and with Rolando Aarons potentially moving on loan after a disappointing year out last season, you have just three wingers, which is rather dangerous in the formation Rafa plays.
Finally, we come to striker, and the root of many problems: a lack of goals. Dwight Gayle and Joselu combined for just ten goals. Islam Slimani was a flop on loan from Leicester. Yoshinori Muto will be coming in hopefully eligible to work and with a £9.5 million price tag to live up to. It is indeed dangerous to rely solely on the striker position to provide goals, but when you take a look at the sides around Newcastle in the table, you have either capable strikers Leicester, or a squad that was able to pick up the slack in Crystal Palace, or in Bournemouth's case, a little bit of both as Josh King can play central striker or attacking-mid and on the wing. The Magpies desperately need either Gayle, Joselu, or Muto to take pressure off Perez and provide a central attacking outlet for the sake of the entire team.
Final Thoughts:
I don't think this is a wholly bad Newcastle side by any means. I rate Lascelles very highly and think they have arguably a top-five manager in the Premier League in Rafa Benitez. Rafa wants this to work out, you can tell. But he is just frustrated. It's not even a matter of quality at the moment, it's quantity. The first-team is in dire need of fresh players to provide something, anything, to the club. As I've covered, the vast majority of the starting eleven is quality and those subs they regularly use, with some exceptions, have a good deal of positives. Newcastle simply need to cover their bases with additional signings to provide competition to the side and the ability to have depth if a player falls out of form. If that happens, expect a strong season from the Magpies. But with Mike Ashley at the helm, a man whom many fans have lost patience in long ago? That's easier said than done.
Link to BBC article quoting Rafa Benitez: https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/45037714
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