While the talent of Michigan basketball's roster for this upcoming season is no secret, the rotation that coach John Beilein will settle into remains one. Things should hopefully clear up when the team travels to Spain over the summer for their once-every-four-years European trip, but for now, things remain a history. Today, I'm going to see if I can brush off the dirt that limits the visibility of the potential rotation and try to get to the bottom of it and along the way I'll make predictions of the minute-distribution.
The Personnel:
Michigan returns a healthy amount of contributors from last year's team to this year's, but not so many that the rotation will be a foregone conclusion. Zavier Simpson and Charles Matthews both started for Michigan last season, Simpson for the majority of the year and Matthews as the only returning player to have started every single game for the Wolverines last season, and it would be a surprise if they did not retain their starting positions throughout the entirety of the season. Matthews is returning to improve his prospects for the NBA Draft and will be perhaps the key piece for this team next season. Simpson, on the other hand, is the man who, as point guard, will be tasked with making sure the offense runs fluidly while his defense remains up to standard. It was a surprise to most when Michigan was better defensively than offensively last season, both of these players will be tasked with not just shooting the ball better for their side, but making sure the offense flows as a whole.
Michigan's starting line-up seems likely to be filled out with players on last season's team, with Isaiah Livers, who had been a starter last season, but Duncan Robinson saw the lion's share of the minutes, Jordan Poole, and Jon Teske all natural fits as power forward, shooting guard, and center, respectively. Between offseason workouts with renown strength and conditioning coach Jon Sanderson and that added familiarity of the Beilein offense that Poole and Livers will have as sophomores and that Teske gained while seeing an uptick in minutes from last year to the season prior, it seems logical to places these three into the starters roles, at least for now. Michigan, of course, will also return Eli Brooks, who became the first of last season's freshmen to win a starting position, and Austin Davis, who redshirted in the 2016-17 season but saw spot minutes last year. Both of them will be factored into the contention for minutes for the Wolverines next season as well.
While coach John Beilein usually won't go more than eight or nine players deep in his rotation, the incoming freshman class of five players will offer him depth that he perhaps has never had in his time as Michigan's head coach. At the helm of the class are Ignas Brazdeikis and Brandon Johns, both men who expect to be in contention for minutes at the wing positions as soon as they step in the door. David DeJulius will contend for minutes at the point guard as well, while Colin Castleton will try to win minutes at the center, ditto to Adrien Nunez and the shooting guard spot. As you may notice, Michigan is a well-balanced team, with an incoming freshman fitting into every single spot, a returning player that could start at every spot on the floor as well, and an additional man at the point guard and center positions, both of which are positions where it is guaranteed a back-up will see quality minutes from.
Rotation Formulation:
Now that we have the playing personnel established, the question becomes what will the breakdown of each position be? Let's take it step-by-step:
Point Guard:
Incumbent Starter? - Yes: Zavier Simpson
Simpson started 29 of the 41 games last season, including the stretch from January 6th until the season's completion. With his stifling defense and general consistency to stay out of foul trouble, he will likely see an increase in minutes from last season's 26.5. This spot is one of two with two potential back-ups, in DeJulius and Brooks. Brooks played in 31 games and started 12 of those, which says a great deal about Beilein's faith in a freshman point guard. DeJulius, however, offers something special, in my view, and the question with him will be if he can defend to a Big Ten caliber level. Similar to last season, the point guard positional battle will be intriguing to watch develop.
Final Prediction:
Simpson: 30 minutes
Brooks: 5 minutes
DeJulius: 5 minutes
The likelihood of one of the two back-ups making the spot his seems to be rather likely to me, and if that is the case, then expect that player to get a consistent ten minutes per game by the time Big Ten season rolls around.
Shooting Guard:
Incumbent Starter? - No
Jordan Poole is going to be the man with the biggest jump to make for Michigan's season to go off as well as fans hope. Averaging just 12.5 minutes per game, it seems highly likely that his minutes will rocket up to the 30+ range, but perhaps not yet at Adbur-Rahkman levels from last season. The interesting thing about this position, and one of the reasons I pencil Poole in for such a heavy amount of minutes, is that a clear back-up does not reveal themselves. Adrien Nunez fits here, and he could make it his own, but the question of just how long Beilein's rotation will be has me questioning what sort of playtime Nunez will receive. Additionally, with two back-up point guards, I have to wonder if Coach has something in mind that involves playing Simpson and a back-up point-man (DeJulius seems to fit in well at the two) at the same time. This would be a likely scenario for the 2019-20 season as well if DJ Carton were to commit to Michigan. The possibilities are all very interesting.
Final Prediction:
Poole: 32 minutes
Nunez: 4 minutes
DeJulius: 4 minutes
Small Forward:
Incumbent Starter? - Yes: Charles Matthews
The only thing that prevented Matthews from averaged even more than 30 minutes per game was his tendency to pick up an early foul or two in games. With NBA scout eyes now veering towards him, this seems to be his Michigan team and I would imagine he is the player most likely to get 'Rahkman minutes' for this team. This means that Beilein will have to be a little creative with his use of a player like Brazdeikis, but he is 6'8" just like Johns who projects to be a power forward or even small-ball center, so I would not consider this to be too serious of a dilemma.
Final Prediction:
Matthews: 33.5 minutes
Brazdeikis: 6.5 minutes
Matthews will be given all the opportunities he wants to showcase his abilities, and that is an exciting prospect for this Michigan side.
Power Forward:
Incumbent Starter? - Yes: Isaiah Livers
Livers, by the end of the season, was indeed still the starter, but Duncan Robinson was getting the starter's minutes at the power forward. This season, Livers will definitely get the chance to make this position his. He'll face tough competition from Johns and Brazdeikis, both of whom seem to be NCAA ready in stature and ability. I will tend to lean with Livers getting the majority of the minutes, however. Even in Zak Irvin's stellar freshman season, he only averaged about 15 minutes per game, but Beilein was creative in his usage of him, plus his smaller stature made it easier to keep him on the court. Michigan has a nice problem of having three talented and young players vying for minutes at the power forward position, and if one of the freshmen forces his way into the line-up, I would not be too surprised.
Final Prediction:
Livers: 22 minutes
Brazdeikis: 12 minutes
Johns: 6 minutes
Center:
Incumbent Starter? - No
Jon Teske is almost surely the starter and will see a big jump in minutes from his average of just over 12 per game last season, but just how much is the question. Before last season, Beilein had never played his primary center more than 25 minutes per game since the 2009-10 season with DeShawn Sims, who was a billed 6'8" and was forced into the role despite being more suited for the power forward position. This will be Teske's junior season, but his first where he will be expected to contribute serious minutes. Behind him are Austin Davis and Colin Castleton, both of whom have their own sets of questions around what will be asked of them to do on the court (as they both have rather different, yet somewhat similar, skill sets). The wild card to me, and an exciting option in my view, is playing Johns here at the five a-la Sims on those early Beilein teams. This is a creative way of allowing him to see the floor and could spell Teske while not losing defense, especially with smaller centers.
Final Prediction:
Teske: 22 minutes
Johns: 10 minutes
Castleton: 4 minutes
Davis: 4 minutes
Final Thoughts:
This is a best-guess at what the earlier non-conference games will look like. It is going to be highly unlikely that there is this much roster shifting going on by the heart of the Big Ten season. As the season begins, however, I would expect nearly everyone, barring a redshirt being used, to at least get some form of minutes played in the early games. Once the we approach 2019, we'll look back at these predictions and see what was close, what was not, and what predictions to edit for the remainder of the season.
Follow me on Twitter @RMABTweets for plenty more Michigan basketball coverage, as well as AFC Ann Arbor and Liverpool FC coverage as well!
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